First some more positive news for Aviva (AV) shareholders. A month ago, here, I discussed the positive decision that the UK listed insurance giant would sell its French business. Today it also announced the sale of its Polish business and yet again it is for a decent amount of money of over Euro 2.5 billion. This means that Aviva is now almost exclusively focused on their UK, Ireland and Canada businesses but also later this year can choose to pay a special dividend or seek to build further its core businesses. Frankly, I would do more of the latter, even if the yield is already c5%. As noted a month ago, I remain positive on this one and have a target share price well above the current 400p level.
It has been a while since I have written about ITV (ITV). Regular readers will know that I switched my CEO crush preferences to Aviva’s (AV.) Amanda Blanc a few months ago here . So what is going on at the broadcaster?
When Malcolm wrote here back in late February that ‘the world has never been so precarious, making big insurance companies even more essential’, none of us would have expected the events of the last eight or nine months. Anyhow, I hope Malcolm held onto the Royal & Sun Alliance (RSA) shares he loved up in that article, as the late Thursday bid for the company at 685p in cash by a consortium of the Canadian insurer Intact Financial and the Danish insurer Tryg gives all shareholders the nicest of decisions.
I declared my new FTSE 100 corporate crush a month or so ago here and Amanda Blanc, the newish CEO of insurance giant Aviva (AV.), is starting to deliver. Yesterday’s announcement was that the company has sold its majority shareholding in its Singapore business to a strong sounding consortium for a cool £1.6 billion, which is not too shabby for a middling at best geographic division for a company with a market cap of £11.6 billion. Go that simplification plan!
I read a good bit of investment advice the other day - yes, despite almost a quarter of a century as some kind of professional investor I am still learning. It noted that 'if you're a very rare trader with edge, you'll act according to your strategy...if you're one of the majority of traders with no edge, this volatility may be revealing'. Goodness I wish I had exhibited sufficient knowledge and accrued insight to have written that. It is very true in my opinion.
If you want to periodically (or even frequently) look like a fool...then I would heartily suggest you engage with the financial markets. As I have discussed on these pages before, a really good batting record is getting seven out of ten calls correct...with the other three losers being curtailed before they get anywhere near joining the fifty percent or worse down club. Anyone who claims a record better than this should either be on the front page of Businessweek or is the next Bernie Madoff.
Back in August I observed that buying Aviva (AV.) shares was 'so much better than buying FTSE-100 units'. If you run some analysis over the last three months or so, then this has certainly been achieved, with the FTSE-100 up a couple of percent but Aviva shares up a little more than 10%.
So you think blue chip shares are safe? Hat tip to a Mr N Wray from London for the table below which proves that they are not.had you stuck £5,000 into all the stocks in the FTSE 100 10 years ago in 17 cases you would have lost money in absolute terms. The worst investment would be RBS (RBS) where your initial £5,000 would today be worth £191. Other household names such as Tesco (TSCO), Marks & Sparks (MKS) and Aviva (AV.) were just dogs. As the table below shows even supposedly safe blue chips carry risk.
Let me confess. The main reason I choose the old Royal Insurance, Royal & Sun Alliance (RSA) as my second New Year tip is that it has a good chance of being taken over in the next twelve months.
I don’t know who uttered the phrase ‘you cannot eat relative performance’ first but it strikes me as a very relevant statement to describe my first two tips of the year. But I had a big winner. Thank you Greece!
Hello Share Spoolers. I've said a few times before that I feel confident investing in British insurers. As financial ventures they are in prime position to benefit from the long, slow rally from the credit crunch of 2008.
Early August: whilst most think about upcoming or just passed holidays, the last couple of Ashes tests or – for the real geeks amongst you – the finer points of the Bank of England’s big data dump, my mind muses about the 2015 tips I published at the turn of the year. Amusingly enough – as often these things fall – both my main tips reported yesterday: Aviva (AV/) and Randgold Resources (RRS). I will come back on the world’s leading larger cap gold miner later after their conference call but first…the dull world of insurance.
Aviva (AV.) is 8.6% or so down from its high point of 536p last May. Some in the market have been slightly underwhelmed by the recovery plan thinking that more cost cutting needs to be done; that is to say, doing the right things but not to a great enough extent.
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