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Ferrexpo Trumps Bitcoin and Tesla combined in the MAGA rally

Two predictable beneficiaries of the Trump victory were Bitcoin and Tesla, up 8% and 14% respectively. A third, which was certainly not on my radar was, somewhat counter-intuitively, shares in London-listed, Ukrainian-based, iron ore pellet producer Ferrexpo (FXPO) which trumped both of the above with a stonking 38% gain before closing a mere 27% higher. Quite a few people regarded Ferrexpo as vulnerable to yesterday’s outcome on the basis that a Trump win is bad for Ukraine and what’s bad for Ukraine must be bad for Ferrexpo. But, in hindsight, the positive reaction makes sense.

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Thoughts on a Reversion to Mean – some things never change, Victoria and Petra are examples

Exasperated value investors have been calling for a reversion to mean for several years now. In effect this means that the grossly overvalued US stock market will reset lower and conversely that the undervalued UK market should improve.

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Two US Companies Where the Outcome is not in Doubt.

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The Widowmaker is Back, Head for Greggs

By far the biggest carry trade is USD/JPY. It’s about $4 trillion worldwide (roughly the size of the German economy). How it works is really quite simple. You borrow yen at 0% and use it to buy dollars (yielding 4.5% in money markets). Oh and you lever up ten times for a juicy 45% yield. Maybe you park your gains in NASDAQ, sit back and relax. The beauty is that the yen (yielding 0%) is bound to depreciate against the dollar (yielding 4.5%), so you get a capital gain thrown in too when it’s time to return the yen.

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Buy Serica Energy, look at the yield

Shares in Serica Energy (SQZ) are both on the floor now for understandable reasons.

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Buy TUI – it is out of intensive care

I have written about Tui (TUI) in the past as a good shorting opportunity and so it has proved. The company came within a whisker of going the way of Thomas Cook during the pandemic and had to resort to three rescue rights issues and a German State bailout to survive. The share price tanked and is still way below its pre-Covid levels. Things look a lot rosier now, however.

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Bitcoin Mining. A Structurally Unprofitable Business: so an ETF and a stock to short

First of all, can I say a very big thank you to all the generous readers who sponsored my 100 kilometre walk last weekend for fighting Motor Neurone Disease. Our small group, including ShareProphets reader, Nick Mauger raised over £8,000 including gift aid way above our £6,000 target

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Keep Selling Petrofac, the Shoe is Dropping this is free money!

I wrote recently here that Petrofac (PFC) would be the next shoe to drop after Superdry (SDRY) and observed that the bond market is invariably better at pricing risk than the stock market.

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Buy to the sound of gunfire and sell to the sound of trumpets (I've gone long bitcoin)

I am not a great one for conspiracy theories but there does seem to have been something a little choreographed about Iran's strike on Israel over the weekend.

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Thoughts on Short Selling in the Post-Covid World and some safe targets

The debate raised in a Bloomberg article by Matt Levine about whether fundamental analysis was an eighty-year flash in the pan that is now over (and taken up in a recent bearcast by Tom) is fascinating.