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Even a few of our detractors have now come around
About five months ago HERE I concluded that I was a buyer of Halfords Group (HFD), the “largest retailer of motoring and cycling products in the United Kingdom”. That would have been very wise, as the then c.140p share is today more than 210p. However - as I have plenty of capability to be an idiot - I did not follow my own advice! So, how do I feel about its interim results out a few days ago…?
As per analytical data from my personal pension fund account, I have made money from my choice to retain a holding in Haleon (HLN) - “a global leader 100% focused on consumer healthcare with a competitive advantage to combine deep human understanding with trusted science” - after its spin-off from GSK plc (GSK) in July. I am not sure that is technically correct given the company’s c. 276.53p share price at the close of business on Friday. Anyhow, the bigger question is what should I do now? After all, other GSK shareholders - including Tom - decided to exit stage left kicking around a 300 pence share price immediately after the spin-off and invest elsewhere.
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (IAG) aka the stock you and I used to call British Airways, saved my backside a few months ago. To be precise, I am sure the Gibraltar tourist board and/or a Spanish train company would have preferred me to be stuck thankis to Easyjet (EZJ) - with my eldest daughter - in the British Overseas Territory and a city located at the southern tip of the Iberian Peninsula, but IAG / BA stepped up in a timely (although slightly expensive) manner. So, I have become a bit more of a fan (albeit that I do not currently own any shares in the company), which brings me to its third quarter numbers published earlier today…
I appear pretty useless over the last few years when voting for the next Conservative Party leader (and Prime Minister). After all a few years back, I voted for Jeremy Hunt (whatever happened to him?!) rather than Boris Johnson and - a couple of months ago - Rishi Sunak got my vote and not Liz Truss (where an even smaller number of members agreed with me). My big issue with the latter started on day one of the campaigning when she loved up the performance and tactics of the Bank of Japan. Unbelievable…and no wonder the mini-budget of a few weeks ago was such a shocker. More on politics and the economy and markets over the next few days…but today I want to talk (again) about Rank Group (RNK).
I will let other experts write about the company I call Royal Wail, Henry the Eighth called The Royal Mail and apparently today it is known as International Distributions Services plc (IDS), which today seems quite good at strikes and anticipating higher losses. Apparently, “excluding any charges for voluntary redundancy costs…this may increase to around a £450 million loss if customers move volume away for longer periods following the initial disruption". One for the experts to say the least… Meanwhile, I am more interested in today’s update from the multinational packaging and paper group Mondi (MNDI).
I really do hope that you are not feeling too pessimistic about global financial markets and your portfolio. Sadly, stuff does happen and what matters is always how you respond to such challenges. Meanwhile in personal positions and investment choices I see that I get another opportunity to talk about and appraise Carnival (CCL), where frankly I would have been much, much wiser to have a holiday or three on the “6,465-passenger Carnival Mardi Gras, one of the largest cruise ships in service across all lines”, rather than holding shares in the company (whose US listed shares were at a share price last seen in 1993 yesterday afternoon)...
Two stocks I do own in my pension fund portfolio are Burberry (BRBY) and GSK plc (GSK) but I see there has been a little bit of interesting interaction news between the two FTSE-100 names...
Every month the Global Fund Management Survey (FMS) is published. A bit like any survey, you have got to be a touch cautious, as if something is already consensus, it is hard to keep on being smart (unless something is fundamentally brilliant or terrible). As for the survey this month, even if you compare the FMS cautious levels towards a weaker economy, thoughts are akin to how they were in October 1998, December 2000, August 2006, July 2008 and March 2020. As for recession fear hopes, we are not far off the fear levels seen from FMS levels seen in March 2009 or April 2020.
It is rather a amazing to think that thirty years ago today it was “Black Wednesday”, when Norman Lamont looked a bit of a fool, George Soros may have made a few quid and my suggestion that it was absolutely fine that my sister should buy a few Italian lira earlier in September 1992 looked bang on the money. It was not my greatest FX call…but at least I waffled at length in my Economics A-Level exam earlier that year, that ERM membership had a few problems. Good times.
