Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: BREAKING, the first member of the Quindell crime gang to face legal action - it should be this week
View from the Montana Log Cabin – Am I worried about gold and gold shares ? No, time to get the buying boots out!
Last night, as we reported at the time HERE, shareholders in Sirius Minerals (SXX) gave an almighty feck you to folks like the ShareSoc suits and pompous Crispin Odey and backed the 5.5p per share bid from Anglo American. Before the meeting ShareSoc’s Cliff Weight was on twitter and going full on crony capitalist.
The counting of the votes went on late into the night but the numbers are out and Sirius Minerals (SXX) will now be taken over at 5.5p per share in a rescue bid by Anglo American (AAL). The vote came in two parts…
ShareSoc has today taken a stand against folks who make threats on Social Media. The stench of double standard is overwhelming.
ShareSoc wants your money. Will you make a donation of £500, £100, £10 or whatever you can afford or will you join for £45? Er No give the cash to Woodlarks instead. But the appeal comes at the bottom of news that ShareSoc has launched the ShareSoc Sirius Shareholder Group to provide whatever support it can to 85,000 investors in this company. The appeal is disingenuous at two levels.
The talks are advanced but it looks odds on as if Sirius Minerals (SXX) will get bought out at 5.5p per share by Anglo American (AAL). I guess that explains the very strong share price over the past few days, not that there is ever any insider dealing in London.
I asked you in yesterday's bearcast, which operation was blessed with a site visit from myself, the Mrs & Joshua, hint its shares are worth 0p.
One of the most important disciplines in this game is knowing when to do nothing and until the UK election is out of the way I think it is wise to stay on the sidelines. My political predictive skills are far from perfect and while Johnson is fortunate to have Corbyn as an opponent and ought to gain an overall majority, which would almost certainly trigger a rally in sterling and the beaten up UK-based companies, I am happy to wait for the result before acting. The gulf between left and right both here and in the US is so huge that the idea that decent companies will prosper whatever the political outcome no longer holds good. As for the short side, as is usual at the tail end of a long bull market, the market is extremely tolerant of frauds and over-promotions which is extremely frustrating for bears...
The value of any asset traded in any volume is determined by the price at which buyers and sellers are prepared to transact. So for some surprisingly large companies where the liquidity ( lack of) or some other reason means there are no institutional investors, or trades, the share price is thus largely determined by private investors, many of them untrained in analysis and some of them full blown Bulletin Board Morons.
So there is a Plan B right? Well sort of. But it changes nothing at Sirius Minerals (SXX). It is still almost certainly a total wipeout for shareholders whatever the company says about an update on its “strategic review.”
Lucian Miers calls in from Cambodia where he is escaping the nonsense of the election campaign, to ask is Jo Swinson really as dim as she seems and is Mothercare (MTC) bust. I am afraid that I have no answer to either question...
Chris Frazer, the knobhead who runs Sirius Minerals (SXX) is today calling for bulletin boards to be shut down and again saying that private investors should only buy shares after seeking advice from regulated folks (Neil Woodford perhaps?) The blame for his company’s shares crashing by 90% and being a potential zero must lie elsewhere. Au contraire. I have lambasted John Meyer of SP Angel many times but his analysis of Sirius, its ghastly errors and dire position is superb. Meyer opines in his morning note today:
For those who missed out on Thomas Cook (TCG) which failed in its attempt to blag £200 million off her majesty’s government, the bonds in Sirius Minerals (SXX) - which failed in its attempt to blag $1 billion from HMG - are trading at 33 cents on the dollar.
For Northern Nimbies ,like my first cousin once removed, who do not want a Potash Mine on the North York Moors this is great news. For shareholders in Sirius Minerals (SXX) it is a disaster. This company is in real trouble and may not be able to open its act of environmental vandalism after all.
Large mining projects often take a long time and huge amounts of investment before they finally come to fruition and actually start producing the raw material and a revenue stream. During that time the share price can experience a lot of volatility and I remain to be convinced that the majority of PIs have the patience to invest long term in this type of company, and in some cases there is an argument for buying in closer to production once everything has been sorted out and financing has been finalised...
When investing in a company long term it is all about getting in at a good price, rather than having to buy right at the bottom of any temporary dips along the way, as long as things go to plan for the business.
A “Procurement and capital estimate update” announcement from Sirius Minerals (SXX) sees CEO Chris Fraser commencing comment by emphasising “the signing of the contracts for the remaining tunnel drives and the materials handling facility at Wilton are significant steps forward for the business with almost all procurement now complete”. However, the shares have responded currently circa 10% lower, to around 30p. How’s that capital estimate then?...
Sometimes investing takes a lot of patience, but if you are in at a fairly early stage and are prepared to hold long term, then you can reap the rewards whilst others are left wondering why they never bought any shares whilst the price was still relatively cheap.
From the FCA's spreadsheet of short positions required to be disclosed to it, the following shows the shorted AIM shares with positions from 2016 and thus far in 2017 (by net short position %) - and if this position has increased (red), reduced (green) or remained unchanged (black) since last week...
From the FCA's spreadsheet of short positions required to be disclosed to it, the following details the shorted AIM shares at the end of this week (by net short position %) - and if this position has increased (red), reduced (green) or remained unchanged (black) since last week...
If only to annoy Lucian Miers who must count his short of Sirius Minerals (SXX) and his betting on Crooked Hillary as among his two worst trades of 2016, I bring you the latest thoughts of broker Shore Cap. As ever all the usual disclaimers apply, that it is to say most brokers talk cock but maybe on this occassion Shore Cap does not. Over to the talkers of cock:
Sirius Minerals (SXX) is a company that I’ve watched closely since 2010, and it has now reached a stage where a large proportion of the risk associated with its fertiliser project has been offset.
It is a trifle disappointing that the $860 million funding by Sirius (SXX) has been completed with the £370 million equity component right at the bottom end of the 20p-30p range. The shares went ex on the 2 for 25 open offer at 8 AM today and given the pricing of the fund raise, and the shares going ex, the stock has slipped to 29p.
Congratulations to Sirius Minerals (SXX) which looks to be almost there on securing the finance to build out phase one of its potash mine in North Yorkshire. A few things are up in the air so should you, at 32.875p, buy sell or hold?
The latest podcast from Palisade Capital sees a chap called Dwayne Dahl talk his own book but what he says about the forces that are shaping the potash industry will be of interest to groupies of Sirius Minerals (SXX). And for their sake I bring you this podcast.
Sirius Minerals (SXX) has made good progress with its polyhalite fertiliser project so far and ultimately it will also be of benefit to the UK economy, but I struggle to see the share price going much higher in the shorter term.
If only to tease my pal Lucian Miers who was short of Sirius Minerals (SXX) and cannot have prospered as a result I'm delighted to bring you the note published today after yesterday's interims. Shore is a corporate advisor to Sirius so the research cannot be considered utterly impartial but so far it is Shore Cap 5 Lucian Miers nil. Shore opines:
Whether broker Shore cap is talking tummyrot or not is not the issue. We all know that most broker notes are toilet paper. But just to annoy my pal Lucian Miers who is short I feel the need to give this Sirius (SXX) report more publicity.
Okay the research note claiming that shares in Sirius Minerals (SXX) will zoom from 18p to 40p is made by its own house broker Liberum. On that basis it is - like all house broker buy notes - to be taken with many pinches of salt. But just to annoy my pal Lucian Miers who is short and to show we are happy to offer a variety of views. To be clear, I personally have no view.
Those who listened to Australian fund manager John Hempton speak at the Gold and Bears show last November will know that attention to detail is very much his thing. They will have heard him mutter that he believed US Pharmaceutical giant Valeant, based in Canada, to be worthless. This has been a bold call with ranks of hedge fund royalty (the most prominent being the unbelievably arrogant Bill Ackman) lined up against him.
Shares in Sirius Minerals (SXX) have slipped back sharply since the annnouncement of the DFS for the North York Moors Potash mine. They now trade at 15.5p. But then then a slew of gushing broker buy notes pre the DFS pushed the stock up a lot. I personally would not get too fixated on short term movements.
John Meyer of SP Angel this morning comments on Aureus Mining (AUE), Berkeley Energia (BKY), Avocet Mining (AVM), Antofagasta (ANTO), Highland Gold (HGM), Metals Exploration (MTL), Metminco (MNC), Sirius Minerals (SXX) and Premier African Minerals (PREM) as well as offering a detailed macro view on the news that is shaping global mining and the AIM mining pond.
Featuring shares in Finnaust Mining (FAM), New World Oil & Gas (NEW), SolGold (SOLG), Sirius Minerals (SXX) and Xtract Resources (XTR) with share price targets for all five stocks.
Next up from the Gold & Bears show is a presentation by Sirius Minerals (SXX). Enjoy..
John Meyer of SP Angel this morning comments on Atlantic Coal (ATC), Dalridian Resources (DALR), ASA Resource (ASA), Sirius Minerals (SXX), Rambler Metals (RMM) and SolGold (SOLG) as well as offering a detailed macro view on the news that is shaping global mining and the AIM mining pond.
If you want me to analyse a stock for you just drop me a line at firstname.lastname@example.org - Today I look at shares of Concha (CHA), Genel Energy (GENL), Sirius Minerals (SXX) and offer some share price targets.
This morning Sirius Minerals (SXX) finally received the long awaited planning permission for its York Potash Project. Shareholders in the company have had to be extremely patient to get to this point, but now the real work begins. Sirius has to complete its Definitive Feasibility Study for the proposed mine and then secure funding to build it. At 17.75p Sirius is valued at £393.7million. There is certainly a lot of value built into this share price, but does that make it a buy?
If you want me to analyse a stock for you just drop me a line at email@example.com - Today I look at shares in Globo (GBO), Sareum (SAR), Sirius Minerals (SXX) setting share price targets for all three.
Sirius Minerals (SXX), the AIM-quoted company seeking to develop one of the world’s largest high-grade potash deposits in the North York Moors National Park, says it has reached agreement to expand a recently-signed take or pay supply agreement with a ‘major US agri-business’. This will see the company’s sales rise from an annual 500,000 tonnes of polyhalite for an initial five years to 1.5 million tonnes over seven years from its York Potash project.
John Meyer of SP Angel this morning comments on Glencore (GLEN), Gem Diamonds (GEMD), Hochschild Mining (HOC), Rambler Metals (RMM), Sirius Minerals (SXX) and SolGold (SOLG) as well as offering a detailed macro view on the news that is shaping global mining and the AIM mining pond.
John Meyer of SP Angel this morning comments on Ferrum Crescent (FCR), Gem Diamonds (GEMD), Wolf Minerals (WLFE) and Sirius Minerals (SXX) as well as offering a detailed macro view on the news that is shaping global mining and the AIM mining pond.
Featuring African Potash (AFPO), Asian Citrus (ACHL), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Iofina (IOF), Servision (SEV), Sirius Minerals (SXX).
John Meyer of SP Angel this morning comments on Avalon Resources (AVI), Hummingbird Resources (HUM) and Sirius Minerals (SXX) as well as offering a detailed macro view on the news that is shaping global mining and the AIM mining pond.
Ascent Resources (AST), Connemara Mining (CON), Mobile Tornado (MBT), Seeing Machines (SEE), Sirius Minerals (SXX), Vast Resources (VAST)
Sirius Minerals (SXX) has just received approval for its polyhalite (potash) mine under the North York Moors National Park.
The stock was up about 50% yesterday and the market cap is now about half a billion pounds. Now they have the small matter of financing the mine, building it and operating it to specification. It is a big project. Here is the corporate video:
John Meyer of SP Angel this morning comments on EMED Mining (EMED), IronRidge Resources (IRR), Kefi Minerals (KEFI), Ortac Resources (OTC) and Sirius Minerals (SXX) as well as offering a detailed macro view on the news that is shaping global mining and the AIM mining pond.
Sirius Minerals (SXX) has massive potential and I think people could be about to get a chance to buy in cheaply again. The AIM-listed company is sat on the largest and highest-grade deposit of polyhalite (potash) in the world, and that is right here in the UK under the Yorkshire Moors!
If you want me to analyse a stock for you just drop me a line at firstname.lastname@example.org - Today I look at ADVFN (AFN), Sirius Minerals (SXX), Tungsten Corporation (TUNG)
John Meyer of SP Angel this morning comments on Caledonia Mining (CMCL), ECR Minerals (ECR), Paragon Diamonds (PRG), Sirius Minerals (SXX), StratMin Global Resources (STGR) and Xtract Resources (XTR) as well as offering a detailed macro view on the news that is shaping global mining and the AIM mining pond.
John Meyer of SP Angel this morning comments on Johnson Matthey (JMAT), FinnAust Mining (FAM), Kefi Minerals (KEFI), Metals Exploration (MTL), Sirius Minerals (SXX), Stratex (STI), Ortac Resources (OTC) & Rambler Metals (RMM) as well as offering a detailed macro view on the news that is shaping global mining and the AIM mining pond.
If you want me to analyse a stock for you just drop me a line at email@example.com - Today I look at Inland Homes, Omega Diagnostics, Sirius Minerals.
Sirius Minerals is one of those stocks of whom following the trend is likely to work on a technical basis - until the fundamentals spoil the party.
John Meyer of SP Angel this morning comments on Coal of Africa, Highland Gold, Sirius Minerals, Solgold, Rio Tinto and the new IPO South32 as well as offering a detailed macro view on the news that is shaping global mining and the AIM mining pond.
I lasted shorted shares in Sirius Minerals (SXX) in August 2013 when the company, desperate for cash, announced a death spiral equity finance loan from an unnamed New York based firm. This was misleadingly dressed up as an investment, with CEO Chris Fraser even crowing that it demonstrated “confidence in the on going development of the York Potash project” when anyone familiar with death spiral financing knows that it did no such thing and such arrangements invariably cause steep declines in the share price.
Sirius Minerals (SXX), the ambitious company seeking to exploit the world’s largest and highest-grade deposit of the high-nutrient agricultural fertiliser Polyhalite, has withdrawn one of its planning applications for the project, in the North York Moors National Park, for ‘re-tweaking’ and re-submission. But managing director Chris Fraser is still pushing ahead with off-take deals to help fund the £1 billion-plus York Potash project and the company, which hopes to be in production by 2018 if all now goes well, insists it could have the green light by May and then be on its way from a quote on AIM with a £182 million stockmarket value to membership of the FTSE 100 share index of the most heavily-capitalised companies in Britain.
This morning, Sirius Minerals (SXX) announced that its Chairman, Russell Scrimshaw, yesterday bought 2.1million shares on the open market at an average price of 11.75p. Worth £246,750, this is another impressive show of faith by Mr Scrimshaw, who also participated in March’s 12p placement. In total he now has an indirect interest in Sirius of 39.4million shares, roughly 2.1% of the company’s issued share capital. The question now is, is Sirius a buy?
A lot of the large mineral deposits we hear about are in some far-flung, politically unstable, corrupt and unsafe part of the world. To the extent that we often forget what we have on our own doorstep, and in the case of Sirius Minerals (SXX) that is a highly significant potash deposit located between Whitby and Scarborough.
The World’s Number One Mining analyst Roger Bade of Whitman Howard has today published his quarterly review and on balance the Great man is still bearish with a raft of sell recommendations included. He is a buyer of Sirius (SXX) but that is a rare bull call. The great man writes:
The latest document from AIM listed Sirius Minerals (SXX) as it battles to get planning permission to destroy the North York Moors, oops we meant build a new mine, regards its Mineral Transport System. And the world’s number one mining analyst Roger Bade of Whitman Howard says this is another positive step to getting permission.
The world’s number one mining analyst Roger Bade of Whitman Howard has this morning flagged up a couple of issues that may emerge next week (on the 20th) for AIM listed Sirius Minerals (SXX). On balance the great man still rates the shares as a buy.
Although I don’t plan to buy Sirius Minerals (SXX), I am very encouraged by its placement yesterday. At the start of the year, my third “Trading Theme for 2014” was general mining stocks. So far, this call has been a good one, but movements at the speculative end of the market make me think more is to come.
Chris Fraser, CEO of Sirius Minerals (SXX), will no doubt be a very happy man this morning. Before yesterday’s open, Sirius announced a proposed placing of £30million. Over the course of the day this proved to be the hottest ticket in town, for no sooner had the market closed then Sirius proudly released its second update declaring that it had managed to raise £43million at 12p. So is Sirius now a good bet for investors?
I do not agree with this call but in the interest of balance I note that the World’s greatest living mining analyst, uber cynical Roger Bade of Whitman Howard has today upgraded his stance on Sirius Minerals (SXX) at 13.5p from hold to buy with a four month target of 20p.
As ever the way Sirius Minerals (SXX) communicates with its long suffering shareholders is a farce. I have covered this before and explained why I am a mega bear of this stock – as you can see HERE – but the past 24 hours have been another masterclass from this AIM Cesspit posterboy.
Sirius Minerals (SXX) is notoriously the would be potash mining company which left the hot money high and dry last year on its £1 billion proposed mining project in North Yorkshire designed apparently to be environmentally friendly.
Sirius Minerals (SXX) today served up predictably dismal results for the six months to September 30th. Jessie J reckons that I should forget about the price tag and it is not about the money. My view is that her analysis of Sirius is wrong. It is all about the money. Or rather lack of it.
Would be potash miner / Yorkshire countryside environment blighter Sirius Minerals (SXX) has not covered the bulls with glory yet. However…
"Oh dear" is probably the best colloquial description of the recent history of would be potash miner Sirius Minerals (SXX). There may well be more “oh Dear’s” to come.
Another day and another apparently positive statement from Sirius Minerals (SXX) as it tries to maintain interest to keep its equity drawdown death spiral going. But as ever the maths are not all that supporters might have hoped for.
Another day and another update from hapless Sirius Minerals (SXX) as it tries to get planning permission to build a Potash Mine to scar a large stretch of the North Yorkshire Moors. Sirius has a cunning new plan.
Right now is a difficult time to be a bear as investors seem to be crawling out of the woodwork and buying indiscriminately. The small cap sector in particular has seen some spectacular moves in companies which, without any real change in their prospects have come roaring out of the dog house into the spotlight as appetite for risk has soared.
While I'm hardly the biggest fan of serial disappointer Sirius Minerals (SXX) I am a fan of the technical influence on a company. Its shares have tanked, I’d buy for the bounce at 9.25p.
Shares in Sirius Minerals (SXX) have bounced today off 12 month lows hit earlier in the week but at 14p shareholders must be feeling the pain. Is there more to come?
I flagged last week that even before it starts building its proposed mine, Sirius Minerals (SXX) is going to have to raise fresh equity just to keep going. Given the material uncertainties that now exist one wonders at what price the cash call will be. The shares are now 18.5p but the longer it waits the harder this is going to be. What price a cash call now? 15p? 12p?
You can read my piece of last week here
But things seem to be getting worse.
There are delays and more delays in North Yorkshire for AIM Cesspit listed Sirius Minerals (SXX). The company says that it has £10 million cash left but if there is no planning approval until 2014 it is only a matter of time before the hat is passed around again and at what price will that be?
I am not a fan of Sirius Minerals (SXX) and so on this occasion merely relay a broker note from the man who I think provides the best independent broker comment in London, Roger Bade of Whitman Howard. This note out on Tuesday is balanced and fair. Bulls should take note of his caveats and the cash warnings, bears be aware of the upside. Over to the excellent ( and amusing) Roger:
Sirius Minerals (SXX) has today announced an offtake agreement with Chinese group Yunnan TCT Yong-Zhe Company Limited for the sale of 1mtpa of polyhalite for 10 years from 2017 with the price fixed for the first 3 years. This price is unknown, it will remain confidential, “but is in line with the company's assumptions used for its ‘base case’ NPV modelling”. While Sirius terms the deal "major" broker reaction to the news has been mixed.
Whilst AIM Cesspit listed Sirius Minerals (SXX) is keen to issue an RNS every time there is good news on its planning application to build a vast mine on the North York Moors it seems rather less keen to broadcast the bad news
As is often the case as far as stocks and markets are concerned, when profit taking sets in, the pullbacks tend to be the “worst of both worlds.”
On 9th may Sirius Minerals (SXX) updated investors on the planning process for its proposed mine on the North York Moors.
As is often the case as far as stocks and markets are concerned, when profit taking sets in, the pullbacks tend to be the “worst of both worlds.”
Giving the benefit of the doubt to mining stocks of any shape and size in the recent past has generally not been a winning strategy, whether on a fundamental or technical basis. This point has been underlined at Sirius Minerals (SXX), whether the fundamentals were undermined in mid February following the revelation that it would delaying a feasibility study on its York Potash development.
A raft of announcements have been made by Sirius Minerals (SXX) today but amid the verbage the clear drift is not positive. The shares are off – at 25.25p – but the company is still valued at £339 million. That simply cannot be justified.I did suggest that holders at least top slice on January 31st at 27.75p as bulletin board frothed with excitement on news that the company had submitted a planning application for its Potash mine on the North York Moors – you can read that piece HERE
AIM-listed Sirius Minerals (SXX) has announced it has delivered application documents for the onshore mining and mine access infrastructure for its York potash project to the North York Moors National Park Authority. This news on what is a potentially significant development in the UK has helped shares in Sirius – which commenced 2010 at sub 5p and 2011 at sub 14p – slightly higher to a current 27.75p, capitalising the company at £373 million. The following reviews today’s announcement from the company and the investment proposition here…
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