Oil has been showing signs of weakness in recent months after hitting highs of nearly $140/barrel – for Brent – earlier this year, and has suffered over concerns about the economic situation in many countries in the coming months.
Whilst I’m generally wary of investing in small oil and gas companies, occasionally one comes along that appears to be in the right place, at the right time, and with the right assets and management team.
It was back in July 2018 that I first started to expose the murky and, at times fraudulent, world of First Derivatives (FDP) and its scandal plagued auditors at KPMG Belfast, with the shares at £46. A lot has happened since then. Fascist PR pigs FTI tried to bully me to take down my articles but I told the mothers where to stick it. I reported First to the FRC and it was forced to restate its crooked accounts signed off by KPMG. And Brian Conlon, the CEO and architect of this enterprise sadly passed away leaving his grieving widow as the largest shareholder. Today the name is now FD Technologies (FDP).And it is still a cracking short ahead of numbers next week.Let me explain.
Early this year we showed the Shorted AIM shares at the start of 2021. How’s the performance (those in bold remain from 2020) as at the end of May?…
Thanks to the pressure applied by major dossiers and a string of exposed published by myself and by the Dark Destroyer, Matt Earl, a new management team at First Derivatives (FDP) has started to clean up its act. I got the FRC to force it to change its misleading accounts. And the old, very whiffy related party/Panama Pump deals of the ancient regime are gone. But yesterday’s results show that without the gloss of aggressive accounting and dodgy deals, what is left is a dull business but still one on a glamour rating. My original bear call – sell at £46 on 28 June 2018 – was spot on. The shares are now £22.25 to sell but still a slam dunk sell. Here is why…
I start with a few notes on work at the rain soaked Welsh Hovel and end with thanks to you all as the Rogue Bloggers for Woodlarks total is almost at £29,000. If you are yet to chip in, how about you get us close to or past £29,000 tonight HERE. Then I discuss Simec Atlantic Energy (SAE), whether fund managers are always right and why they are sometimes out of their depth, Tern (TERN), Kefi (KEFI) and First Derivatives (FDP).
I start by thanking both Jim Mellon and Nigel Wray who have eached pledged £1000 to Rogue bloggers for Woodlarks, ahead of June 13 when I shall be walking around my fields here in Wales. Woodlarks needs £48,000 to survive the year. We have now raised 17% of that, please can you make a donation, however small, today to get us closer to target. Please give HERE. I then launch into a heartfelt defence of Roger Lawson of Sharesoc over what appears to be an undeclared related party deal at the organisation that campaigns for improved corporate governance and transparency. Then I look at Imperial Brands (IMB) and First Derivatives (FDP), one a stonking long the other a stonking short.
As I write the Dow is down 25% year-to-date and 28% from its all-time high struck seven weeks ago on Feb 12th. Amongst the maelstrom of opinion and statistics that surfaced in March, the fact is that none of us have a clue what the future holds – least of all the financial ‘experts’ (Ray Dalio: “cash is trash”, Steve Mnuchin: “this is not a financial crisis but we need to print 3 trillion now”). It is encouraging that the new heroes are health workers and not hedge fund managers and clueless treasury officials. My view is that the falls do not remotely reflect the severity of the economic situation, but that is beside the point…
It strikes me that having a big short position right now might be a tad unwise and indeed smart bears are closing many positions. Do not get me wrong, I think that the medical and financial crisis has a good way to run but none the less there are very real dangers in being short. Having said that I suggest to you two stocks where if you are not short yet, you may wish to open a position. I also urge you all to keep safe and stay well.
My slam-dunk sells for 2019 came home ahead, but only 8% down on their starting prices. Of the five, Haydale (HAYD) was an early success as the rescue bailout I had long predicted it needed finally arrived…..and smashed the shares from 31.5p at the start of the year to a couple of pence.
Early in 2019 we showed the Shorted AIM shares at the start of 2019. How did they perform? (those in bold remain from 2018)...
We are almost at year-end and my collection of sells from the start of the year looks fairly set for its second deletion. But how are the others doing, given that at the last count my notional portfolio of sells was down 13% (ie to sell had been the correct call)?...
My slam-dunk sells for 2019 are looking better and better (if you are a bear). In my last piece (in September) the average had got almost back to flat but the interim results season took its toll on one of the portfolio and I am now in profit.
I’ve already waved bye-bye to Haydale (HAYD) when it collapsed earlier this year on a massively discounted rescue refinancing – as long predicted by yours truly – saw me call it a win. Now it seems that Walcom (WALG) is finally heading for the corporate knackers’ yard next month, unless some miracle happens and the shares are down to just 0.25p. That will be two out of five if/when (with emphasis on the when) it happens. All hail the ShareProphets AIM-China Filthy Forty, from where it made this year’s sell list.
Early this year we showed the Shorted AIM shares at the start of 2019. How's the performance at the end of August? (those in bold remain from 2018)...
In this seventh edition of the ShareProphets Radio podcast sponsored by Turner Pope, this week, in order I discuss why Burford scrutiny is so welcome then interview Matt Earl, the Dark Destroyer, on Avanti (AVN) , Burford (BUR), IQE (IQE), First Derivatives (FDP), Versarien (VRS), Quindell (QPP)) and Kerry Group. After a few more thoughts from me on scrutiny of smaller AIM stocks I interview Steve O'Hara of Optibiotix (OPTI) and then discuss one area where I disagree with him on strategy. If you like this and can't wait seven days for more of the same you should listen to my Bearcast every day.
The Evening Standard man is not very bright and still does not understand the import of today's Muddy Waters Burford (BUR). Look at the tweet exchange below. Would you believe I wasted 20 minutes of my life answering questions about the dossier from this ungrateful knobhead today?. It is not the first time I've helped him but with no grace to credit, it will be the last. I also look at First Derivatives (FDP), discuss the very low grade lawyer's letter I received today, look at ADM Energy (ADME) and at the comedy show that is Providence Resources (PVR)
FTI Consulting, PR for First Derivatives (FDP), wants me to take down legititmate articles asking legitimate questions. If Roger Lawson had his way I'd have to take them down. Luckily the ShareSoc supremo can't gag a free press so instead I publish some more, explosive, court documents about First Derivatives in full, below and in this podcast I explain why they matter.
UPDATED: Earlier today I revealed that AIM superstar First Derivatives )(FDP) had been sitting on highly damaging and adverse price sensitive information since Tuesday of last week and had not disclosed this to the market. But it could be far worse. Far worse. I have thus written to both the FCA and to AIM Regulation demanding an immediate formal enquiry into a range of possible offences. It now emerges the case settled on Friday (terms unclear). That does not mean that on Tuesday/Wednesday it should have not been announced.. The letter is below:
In today's podcast i look more at the Sheikh on the make at ADM Energy (ADME) and the failure of Nomad Cairn of Cloudtag (CTAG) infamy. Just how big is that failure? Then a few words on Neil Woodford and finally I discuss the full extent of the possible regulatory horrors which follow on from today's shocking breaking news on AIM "superstar" First Derivatives (FDP) . Update First now says the lawsuit that could have bankrupted it was withdrawn ( it has not said why) on Friday. That does not explain why there was no RNS on Wednesday.
UPDATED: This begs all sorts of questions about First Derivatives (FDP), an AIM casino listed "superstar" about which we have repeatedly warned (and been vindicated by regulators acting on our complaints). The company faced a lawsuit that could bankrupt it and has failed to notify investors, a clear breach of AIM Rules.
I report on what the quack told me and consider a career change. I consider mattresses Eve (EVE), Simba, Nigel Wray and Neil Woodford. I look at Clear Leisure (CLP), First Derivatives (FDP), Thomas Cook (TCG), Dev Clever (DEV) and Verseon (VERS) and I comment on my interview with Kefi (KEFI) out later this week.
I notice that shares in First Derivatives (FDP) have been on the slide since the sad and untimely death of its CEO and founder Brian Conlon on 28th July. My sympathies go to his family and all his many friends. I see that Tom Winnifrith reckons that shares in First Derivatives represent something of a binary bet; either the whole company is acquired by an entity that buys out the 24% held now by Conlon’s estate, or the shares tank when new management come in and start looking at what First Derivatives really is…
It is just over a month since my last update, when my portfolio of five sells was actually showing a profit of 19.5% to anyone who bought as opposed to sold. Egg-on-face time! So how are things looking now – is it still sackcloth and ashes for me?
As you know the Financial Reporting Council are big admirers of my work most recently thanking me for nailing First Derivates (FDP) HERE but inter alia, commending me for my work in exposing the Quindell (QPP) fraud HERE. As such I have been in touch asking that the FRC open a full investigation into the accounts of Burford (BUR) which, I believe, require a material restatement.
Early this year we showed the Shorted AIM shares at the start of 2019. How's the performance at the end of July? (those in bold remain from 2018)...
I doubt I shall be invited to the funeral given the stuff I have written about First Derivatives (FDP). I have been vindicated on that matter but the early death of Conlon is a shame and my thoughts are with his family. None the less I discuss what happens next as the chief plate spinner goes to another place.
To those who say that ShareProphets is a joke site run by a fool or a knave, stick this letter below from the Financial Reporting Council where the sun don't shine. Yet again the FRC is marking my homework with A*s. To those cretins on the Bullettin Boards who abuse me daily I ask: when was the last time you got a regulator to force an £800 million market cap company to change its, overly aggressive and misleading, accounting policies? Ouzo time yet again for the Sheriff of AIM.
Firstly, thank you for all your kind messages about Uncle Chris. Earlier I revealed a real scandal at Anglo African Oil & Gas (AAOG) HERE. But actually I made a schoolboy error and it is far far worse than I depicted. I also comment on Sosandar (SOS), a situation which is enough to turn even the most loyal and vociferous of shareholders to drink. Then I look at First Derivatives (FDP), Telit (TCM) and its latest admission, forced by myself, that it does not give a FF about AIM Rules. Finally a look at Purplebricks (PURP).
In today's bearcast I look at Afriag (AFRI), Big Dave's UK pot play which - as you can see below - he is ramping shamelessly, at Management Resource Solutions (MRS), Eve Sleep (EVE), First Derivatives (FDP), Purplebricks (PURP) and Thomas Cook (TCG). Now re Rogue Bloggers we are now at almost £44,000 and heading towards our £50,000 target. If you are yet to donate please do so HERE. To all those who have donated, many, many thanks.
In today's podcast I look in detail at Managenent Resource Solutions (MRS), Yourgene (YGEN), First Derivatives (FDP) and hapless Neil Woodford and the crashing yield on his Equity Income Fund. How soon will that force Hargeaves Lansdown (HL.) to drop him? And I discuss my plans for weekend training walks as I urge you to become a hero as we surge through 25% of our Rogue Bloggers for Woodlarks target HERE
Last month one of the five had its denouement as AIM-listed Haydale (HAYD) had an emergency bailout - as long predicted by me - at only 2p. That left just four. My suspicion was that AIM-listed member of the Filthy Forty, Walcom (WALG) would be next with its head under the guillotine and the news there was only marginally better as death has been postponed to June.
They say that a week is a long time in politics (attributed to Harold Wilson), and so it seems with the equity markets. A week ago my portfolio of five shares to sell was actually up by 4.6%. Now, all of a sudden we are at minus 8.6%.
It is four weeks since my last update, so it is time to take another look at my sells for 2019. The five have, as a whole, had a better month but I cannot help but think that for three of them the precipice approaches...
First Derivatives (FDP) has rather shocked us all with news that it has secured a new banking facility for £130 million. But that begs another big question which I have added to my list for tomorrow’s capital markets rampfest.
I thought I’d update on my 5 sells for 2019 as after just a couple of weeks a few cracks are beginning to show already. The five, Telit (TCM), Haydale (HAYD), Yu Group (YU.), Walcom (WALG) of the ShareProphets AIM-China Filthy Forty and First Derivatives (FDP) are not necessarily shorts – some, such as Walcom, couldn’t be shorted anyway. But they are sells.
In today's podcast I have some bad news for Bath Spa as the Mrs prepares to head to the Grim North relating to what happened after I gave this talk. I also have bad news for First Derivatives (FDP) as it prepares for a "Capital markets Day" session of mutual masturbation with the dumb sell side analysts and even dimmer fund managers who have stuffed other folks cash into this stock. I cover Totally (TLY), Wishbone (WSBN), Ariana (AAU), Quadrise Fuels (QFI) and Richoux (RIC)
In today's podcast I start with the shocking revelations about Neil Woodford's greed and reward for failure. Folks like Nomates are more of a threat to capitalism than Lenin. I am vindicated on Anglo African Oil & Gas (AAOG) and await apologies from the Bulletin Board Morons. I discuss the whole affair including the shameless behaviuour of FinnCap (FCAP). Truly FinnCrap is a moral sewer. I discuss First Derivatives (FDP), offer up my nap buy for Q1 2019 and have some questions that require an urgent answer from John Gunn's Octagonal (OCT)
Oops a daisy. It looks as if some folks in the City have finally been reading our exposes on First Derivatives (FDP) and are finally waking up to the issues of cash generation, or rather lack of it. Top broker Berenberg was a major bull but has slashed its target price, as you can see in the full note below, from £43 to just £21. Welcome to the party fellows but you are still way too generous – fair value is well under £10 a share.
Given that its IPO prospectus was fraudulent and how its earnings have been materially overstated in recent years as demonstrated here, only the sort of moron who would back the fraud Globo to the hilt would still be owning shares in First Derivatives (FDP). They are an outstanding short at 2125p. But now lets look at kX and something that might just blow up First early in the new year.
I start with a look at Frontera Resources (FRR) and what should and what may happen on Monday in light of this weekend's revelations. You would not want to be long of this one. Then I look at the most shorted shares on AIM and explain why for many of them, notably IQE (IQE), Telit (TCM), ASOS (ASC), Boohoo (BOO) and Victoria (VCP) the bear c ase has just got that much stronger, by an order of n, in the past few weeks. Finally a warning for shareholders in First Derivatives (FDP) - I have a small present for you tomorrow. :)
I start with that upon which we are all surely agreed. Theresa May's Brexit deal is awful, she has acted treasonously towards Ulster and she must go now. Then it seems that Wildes and I agree on one aspect of news from Falanx (FLX) - I discuss its news today. I move on to Totally (TLY), Debenhams (DEB), BCA Marketplace (BCA), Johnston Press (JPR), Purplebricks (PURP) and First Derivatives (FDP)
As you may be aware, the accounting watchdog, the Financial Reporting Council (FRC) is a great admirer of the work of The Sheriff of AIM. And always keen to give my good friends a pointer, I have today submitted a formal request to investigate the last three year’s accounts of First Derivatives (FDP). The issue is whether stated earnings represent the underlying picture. My letter, below, is to the point.
Reading the interims of First Derivatives (FDP), purveyors of smoke and mirrors to the gullible analyst community, the questions continue to stack up.
As I write, shares in First Derivatives (FDP) the company floated via a fraudulent IPO and which has overstated its earnings by c50% for each of the past three years, are surging. Interims have gone down well and the stock is up 160p ( c5%) at £34.10. But hang on Henry… here are 11 points you may wish to consider before buying
I have been greatly distracted today. In part by some ludicrous piffle from Brokerman Dan, I explain why he is deluded. More importantly there is the growing sex and physical abuse scandal at my old school Warwick as I explained earlier today HERE. Today I have spoken to a second sexual abuse victim and been contacted by the new Head Master. Maybe something will happen. On the markets I look at First Derivatives (FDP), Angus Energy (ANGS), Purplebrocks (PURP) Totally (TLY) where Stevie Wonder could see that it is placing ahoy and Goldplat (GDP)
It could be that the current market turbulence is no more than an entry point for easily the most successful investment strategy of the last ten years: BTFD (Buy the Fucking dips) but I sense that this time we might be about to discover who has been swimming without trunks.
In this podcast recorded in my car in a side street of Kambos I discuss my journey to the Greek Hovel and being recognised by a man at Gatwick. Fame! Not! Then I look at Versarien (VRS), Asiamet (ARS), First Derivatives (FDP), UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) and the most terrifying stat of all from the Chinese bubble - a warning for you all.
Anyone still owning shares in First Derivatives (FDP) after our string of revelations culminating in today's uber-aggressive mega-earnings flattering accounting policies HERE, is bonkers. Well it never rains but it pours...
A few days ago I showed hard evidence that the 2002 IPO of First Derivatives (FDP) was based on false earnings. That was dismissed by supporters as being so long ago that it did not matter. It does! But how about we move to the issue of whether reported earnings in the past three years are "real" or cooked up. I suggest it may well be the latter in which case the stock is going to tank at some stage, soon, when investors realise this. Let me explain...
We pointed out numerous red flags at Globo (GBO) for two years before finally sinking the fraud by publishing Gabriel Grego’s dynamite dossier but some folks knew better. In the fund management community the fraud’s biggest supporter was Harry Nimmo of Standard Life whose fund (other folks cash) were on the register to the bitter end. Harry was a true Globo believer. Now he has weighed into bat for First Derivatives (FDP) which has also, arguably, committed fraud as we revealed HERE.
First things first - we have almost raised the £2,500 needed for the Woodlarks Christmas grotto. I am sure you can spare a fiver to get us over the line HERE. Secondly, I am in London tomorrow and on the warpath and hope to see many of you HERE. I was distracted today doing a radio interview with my friend and hero the great Kelvin McKenzie of "gotcha!" fame. That covered Patisserie Holdings (CAKE) and fraud and I continue with that theme. I also look at Superdry (SDRY), First Derivatives (FDP), Frontera (FRR) and Purplebricks (PURP).
I doubt that there was the slightest sense of embarrassment at last week’s AIM awards (a ghastly sounding knees up for the world’s seediest stock market) when First Derivatives (FDP) picked up two gongs: Best Technology award for the company itself and Entrepreneur of the Year Award for its founder and CEO Brian Conlon. Presumably these awards were decided well before First’s price tanked amid some serious concerns being raised and the organisers, in true AIM style, were too gormless to think on their feet and give them out to a less dodgy enterprise.
Forgive a brief historic digression at the start of this podcast but I start with a history lesson for those misguided souls who think that SinnFein/IRA brought peace and happiness to Ireland. Then I look at some other tossers from Ulster, First Derivatives (FDP) and the 3Xs. I comment briefly on Purplebricks (PURP) and Versarien (VRS) then move via BCA Marketplace (BCA) to Neil Woodford. Then it is onto MySquar (MYSQ), Symphony Environmental (SYM) and on to UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) with a few words for Dominic Frisby on the nature of bitcoin and its bubble ahead of our bust up next week in London.
For macro musings and thoughts on stocks that really will crater in a bear market see my bonus bearcast HERE. In this podcast I discuss Versarien (VRS), First Derivatives (FDP), Sosandar (SOS), 13 Energy (I3E), UK Oil & Gas (UKOG), Chariot Oil (CHAR), Avocet Mining (AVM) and BlueJay Mining (JAY)
Okay this is not a slam dunk pig and pork like the one that enabled the really dodgy IPO handled by bent broker JM Finn, bit it seems that every "deal" announced by First Derivatives (FDP) now has to be examined to see if it is what it purports to be. Following on from the “contract win” with Red Bull Racing, which appears to be more akin to a sponsorship deal, another “contract win”, which should bear much closer scrutiny is the one with NASA.
I cannot remember the last time a Northern Ireland player scored a hat-trick in an international. But tonight I am hopeful that Belfast’s finest, First Derivatives (FDP), will pick up three gongs at the annual AIM Awards crony capitalists bean-feast and do the six counties proud. Heading the charge is CEO Brian Conlon who is short-listed for “entrepreneur of the year” sponsored by Octopus Investments. The Judges will have ruled on that before we pointed out that his whole IPO was based on a fraud. It gets better…
In today's bearcast I look at the idea of a bear market on AIM, Cenkos (CNKS) as its CEO walks (again), Versarien (VRS), Plutus Powergen (PPG), First Derivatives(FDP), Mysquar (FRAUD), Mayan (MYN) and Wolfe Minerals (WLFE). Due to a bit of a mix-up there are a newly available handful of tickets to next week's wine, canapes, Falanx (FLX) and Premaitha (NIPT) evening in London with me ripping Dominic Frisby apart on blockchain and bitcoin as a bonus. To grab your seat for 16 October book HERE
In a weekend bearcast I flagged up that the real issue with First Derivatives (FDP) is that its core business is a rotten generator of cash. And that – as well as the fraudulent IPO and dodgy related party deals is why the shares ( off again this morning to £28.35) remain massively overvalued. So what do you do if you are set to report dire free cashflows? Natch turn to the Sam Antar playbook – meet 1010 Data
Neill Ricketts, CEO of Versarien (VRS), the graphene company which is currently the number one pin-up stock on AIM, can be forgiven for thinking that he can walk on water.
While readers reflect upon the various related party transactions undertaken by First Derivatives (FDP) over the years, see HERE and HERE, and in anticipation of further revelations to come do the smart thing and SELL, it seems an opportune moment to consider more recent “contract wins”.
The somewhat obscure headline references are explained in the podcast suffice to say Mr Burns is a top guy and no Darren Winters as implied yesterday. At a company level I look at Accesso Technology (ASCO), Diurnal Group (DNL), First Derivatives (FDP), SalvarX (SALV), Sosandar (SOS) and Akers Bioscionces (AKR) and a most extraordinary statement from it today.
The related party deal exposed HERE on Saturday that helped First Derivatives (FDP) to list via crooked broker JM Finn should have made any sane investor run for the hills. But for insane investors still on board there are more whiffy deals to examine. So here is number two...
Apparently Robbie Burns, The Naked Trader, is giving Darren Winters style uber expensive and useless trading courses at which he terms me a drunk. Hmmmm... As a sub 5 units a week man, my PA investing is not going so badly that I have to resort to being Darren Winters in a cheap suit. The bulk of this podcast is on First Derivatives (FDP). After yesterday's bombshell expose I explain why the shares - down 25% last week - could easily more than halve again from here.
Matt Earl has already done valuable work on First Derivatives (FDP). But is there a smoking gun? Let's rewind sixteen years...2002 was a tough year to launch a tech IPO.
From the FCA's spreadsheet of short positions required to be disclosed to it, the following shows the shorted AIM shares with positions from 2017 and thus far in 2018 (by net short position %) - and if this position has increased (red), reduced (green) or remained unchanged (black) since last week...
Our Winnileaks Matt Earl special on First Derivatives (FDP) has set the cat amongst the pigeons. But I have bad news for the men from God's chosen lands of Ulster who run First. I have more and hope to air soon. Ho ho ho. Get the ouzo and ice ready. In this podcast I also cover spoofing at BlueJay (JAY), Fastjet (FJET), Frontera (FRR), the scandal at Indigovision (IND) which is enough to have us all voting for Jeremy Corbyn, Mayan (MYN) and, in some detail, Condor Gold (CNR), the gold dog which has sent so much of the cash of my good pal Jim Mellon to money heaven. I fear Jim will have to get his wallet out again soon.
The September letter from Matt Earl to investors in his Shadowfall fund has found its way, via Winnileaks, into my possession. I gather Matt does not want it published but Winnileaks works both way Mr DD! I had a pop at First Derivatives (FDP) myself back in June despite it hailing from God's chosen lands of Ulster, as you can see HERE. Matt goes into far more detail in the 47 page document you can see below.
I am the last person to berate the fine folks from my family’s ancestral homelands of the Kingdom of Ulster or indeed the modern day province. SUFTUM is what I say as I wake up every morning to retweet - with my own comments - @onthisdayPira . But some communities are just perhaps just too tightly knit, too cosy. I refer to the accounting arrangements of First Derivatives (FDP).
From the FCA's spreadsheet of short positions required to be disclosed to it, the following shows the shorted AIM shares with positions from 2017 and thus far in 2018 (by net short position %) - and if this position has increased (red), reduced (green) or remained unchanged (black) since last week...
Buying a share that has spiked on hype is rarely a good idea, especially when the level of hype is unjustified, and that certainly applied to Antrim Energy (AEY). When the UK based company, which is listed on AIM and the TSX, announced the result of a prospective resources report of its 25% owned Skellig block offshore Ireland, you’d have been forgiven for thinking that they’d actually struck oil the way the share price spiked and from all the hype on the bulletin boards!
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