Author, David Murrin, warns there is a significant risk of conflict in Asia, including Korea and Taiwan. He states that China is gaining knowledge of drone technology, while the West is essentially at war with Russia; the level of collective delusion from Western leaders is concerning.
Asset manager David Brady believes another massive rally is coming for gold and that the Fed will reverse course. Countries never chose to default they always inflate their debts away. Markets today are centrally managed. What we have is not free-market capitalism.
Analyst, Chris Puplava, argues that Fed rate hikes don’t always result in recessions. He believes there is no spare capacity to compensate for a slowdown and, therefore, the Fed is limited in its ability to control inflation. The November elections are always a factor, and he doesn't expect the Fed will tighten aggressively into the fall. Mortgage rate hikes, he argues, are already impacting the housing markets, as the interest rate pain threshold has been more pronounced with every debt cycle.
Bullion manager Stephen Flood says his company is seeing a lot of demand due to inflation concerns. The broader consumer base is not interested in buying gold but he expects this will change. He claims that we’re seeing seven percent inflation and it’s likely much higher. It’s not going to take long for money to halve in buying power.
Forget Ukraine it is not the real driver of the bull case for gold. Analyst Keith Weiner explains what is and why the makes him a gold bull.
Analyst Mark O’Byrne is puzzled by gold’s lack of reaction to current global risks. He says that the metals should have moved higher in response to inflation. Supposedly, they are anticipating rate hikes but a large move seems unlikely as that would crash the markets. Inflation is not transitory and we’re just seeing the start of it. He expects weakness in the short term for gold as Fed takes some sort of action. Then he says that within a short period afterward, we will see gold break to the upside.
Another one to annoy our in-house bitcoin loon Jimbo although I sense that this particular sinner is somewhat repenting.
Ex broker and commentator Bill Holter of JSMineset makes it clear: inflation is unavoidable and that must send gold higher.The process is already underway.
Analyst Steven Van Metre has a stark warning for us all.
Analyst and silver bug David Morgan warns of the excessive risk created by the use of margin in markets. Excessive leverage led to the 1929 crash and the great depression. Investors can be wiped out if they are not careful.
Commentator Adrian Day says that “The Fed’s bark is worse than it’s bite.”
Writer Kevin Muir of “The Macro Tourist” has a couple of pretty extreme big calls.
The Quoth the Raven podcast host Chris Irons is a man who believes in sound money and bad language so he must be a good bloke. Chris reckons that everything in the markets is rigged and the biggest rigger is the Fed. He says that the Fed’s main function today seems to be preventing market corrections. This is causing numerous issues along with making most people complacent.
Another week and more positive progress in the price of Gold. Last week it closed at $1817 per oz, now it is up to $1828 and spent the back end of last week having a pop at $1830 overhead resistance. This is all very positive in my book, and Silver had a strong week too moving up to $24.73 having put in a low point of $23.00 last month. So is the Gold Bull-market about to reappear?
Investor Michael Gentile has a simple message about the only way to cope with inevitable inflation coming down the track towards us and fast.
Celebrated author and investor Marc Faber does not mince his words. Most stock markets and sectors have underperformed compared with US Markets. This, Faber explains, is because every time the Fed prints, it ends up with corporations and the super-rich. Markets are no longer homogenous, and fiscal deficits are no longer expanding. This is making it more difficult for the entire market to move upwards.
Asset manager Peter Grandich says that during his forty year career, financial markets have changed to become high-tech casinos. Spot on!
Alasdair Macleod, Head of Research For GoldMoney kicks off with the Fed’s levels of reverse repos and quantitative easing of 120 billion a month. Since the banks can’t absorb all the extra liquidity-seeking returns, he points out that the Fed must step into the market.
Chris Irons, host of the Quoth The Raven, is an outspoken and entertaining fellow who is pretty much bang on the money most of the time. His core thesis is that modern financial systems are essentially nefarious schemes that benefit politicians and the wealthy.
Things can only get worse
Professor David Collum of Cornell University is an expert on inflation. David starts with the observation that actual wealth creation involves making life better, and the 1870s to 1940s are a good example. Since the 1940s, wealth creation has become much more gradual. GDP today does not consider inflation or planned obsolescence from cheap consumer goods.
Analyst Danielle DiMartino Booth is my sort of bird – a dry as dust Austrian economist who tells it as it is. Pointing out the elephant in the room that bulls ignore, she starts by flagging up that America is a very indebted country if one includes American households, corporations, and the national debt itself. Servicing all this debt is only possible because the Fed has been able to keep bond yields near zero.
Gold businessman Keith Weiner argues that there is no way to extinguish debt in our current system, so the total debt grows, and due to interest, it tends to grow exponentially. He says that in the past, the Fed loosened regulations and lowered rates, but it’s like they are now pushing on a string.
Analyst Luke Gromen argues that the global sovereign debt bubble is bursting, something which last occurred a hundred years ago. He believes that the Central banks are nearly entirely out of options, and bond markets are beginning to understand this fact.
Asset manager Michael Gayed warns the very fabric of society is at risk.
Money printing can have only one end point.
Writer and trader Gary Wagner says that folks are waiting for more stimulus, but the next program will likely not arrive until February. The US economy continues to contract, and while some businesses are doing very well, others are being hit quite hard. The Fed has stated that interest rates will remain unchanged as it still has some options in their toolbox.He says that you can expect gold and equities to continue to do well in this environment.
Fund manager Jaime Carrasco of Canaccord Genuity starts with the Fed’s rampant money printing. Whenever central banks print like crazy, income inequality and destruction come to the middle class throughout history. These policies explain the politics today and why the outlier tends to be elected.
And if analyst Craig Hemke is correct, you just have to buy precious metals exposure, especially gold.
Investor Lawrence Lepard claims that people are gradually waking up to what is happening. Governments can’t create credit forever without consequence, and we are now witnessing the end of that system. In the space of only six weeks, we have seen stunning moves and government actions. Eventually, people will consider currency to be an inadequate means of storing wealth.
It looks as though the mass dash for cash may have halted abruptly as far as gold is concerned – and silver. Having been lower before closing last week at just under $1500, it seems that yesterday’s announcement from Fed Chairman, Buzz Lightyear of QE to inifinity….and beyond has set the gold price alight. We are now at $1665 and rising vertically...
Love it or hate it … you just cannot ignore gold … it is after all a “bellwether”. Originally a bellwether was a bell tied around the neck of a castrated ram (a wether) who would lead the other sheep and give the shepherd a ready reckoner on the movements of the flock. In financial markets it just refers to a leading indicator.
Author Danielle DiMartino Booth argues that it is iimportant that people understand the way central bank policies affect their lives. Her recent book reveals how the Fed has lost its way due to creating monetary policy based on market patterns and politics instead of economic metrics. She argues that the Fed is increasingly becoming backed into a corner ever since the money printing of 2008 with the introduction of “Zero Interest Rate Policies” and “Quantitative Easing.” Now the Fed has again become dovish over seemingly small corrections occurring in the markets.
Fund Manager Lawrence Lepard argues that inflation is in the process of returning, and the Fed is losing credibility. More people realize that the money system itself is terrible. Unlimited credit is a temporary solution to regular markets, and the end-point of this process could be hyper-inflation. He believes investors will begin to chase gold as the broader markets are likely not headed to new highs. The technical picture for gold is looking good. Commodities are very cheap right now while stocks are almost certainly over-priced.
The pain of the 2008 crash will seem like a mere flesh wound compared to the devastation the next deflationary wave will wreak...
Technical Analyst Jordan Roy-Byrne's latest research unearths some interesting similarities with gold stocks compared to historical three-year bear markets. He found three that compare well; they are the S&P 500 during the great depression, the housing market during the global financial crisis, and Thailand in the mid-1990’s which had a huge bust. He describes how all of the recoveries afterward seem to follow a specific pattern and he sees that behavior in gold stocks. Those patterns ended after 14-24 months with prices moving upwards by 133% to 200%.
Spot gold has spent the past seven months in a tight trading range between $1,200 and $1,300 per ounce. Given the stored force inherent in such a trading pattern (Figure 1, below), history suggests a breakout, whether up or down, is likely to be characterized by steep slope. The question remains, which direction will gold follow? Sprott analyst Try Reik reckons the major breakout will be on the upside and explains why in the detailed note below.
Bubbles and Busts are both created by the US Federal Reserve and US Presidents are merely along for the ride. Presidents like to credit themselves for the bubble feel good upswing and then they look for scapegoats, usually the free market during the painful busts. Early on President Trump made a big mistake as he tried to portray himself as the cause of the current rise in the stock market...
In the week the world's top central bankers delivered what appears seems to have be a collective message that quantitative easing is being put back in its box and interest rates are going up. Until now stock and bonds have being trading higher on the premise that the total pot of global liquidity was still swelling despite rising Federal Reserve rates - courtesy of ongoing European Central Bank and Bank of Japan bond buying programmes, most of all. Mario Draghi's change of tack on Tuesday had the most impact, far more than any of the recent Fed utterances. All of a sudden the usual central bank noises have suddenly harmonised over what the Bank for International Settlements calls the "great unwinding" of easy money.
Gold guru Mike Swanson was expecting a market pullback last year, however the Trump election caused him to go long on the market. Initially these administration changes could have driven the markets and stimulated the economy. He doesn’t think that Trump will get much done on these fronts and most of his promises are probably not going to materialize.
The world's best known resource group Sprott has published its monthly report and warns again that those with no gold exposure will lose out big time. Analyst Troy Reik writes:
There were spectacular gains in gold and silver last year and that has affected people’s expectations since most of those gains have now been given up. In the near term we will likely test support at $16 silver and $1200 for gold - that is the warning from gold guru Brad Cooke. But... The Fed has set a course of quarterly rate increases that is faster than economic growth which is a formula for stagflation and recession, when this happens investors holding gold and silver investments will do well.
These times are getting interesting and disjointed times. The FTSE 100 share index is now up 30% over five years, yet earnings have fallen by 80% over the same period and with U.S. unemployment at 5% and the core CPI rising 2.2% over the last year, it is difficult for the “data dependent” Fed to further rationalise emergency rates based on its official dual mandate. In addition we are living in an age when a CEO of two US public companies can give a talk about colonising Mars and shareholders don’t see it as a warning signal.
On Friday during an interview on Wharton Business Radio, St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, who has recently moved from the Fed's biggest hawk to one of its more vocal doves, said that he sees just one rate interest in the next few years. He also confirmed that the Fed will never hike rates at a time when even one recent economic data point has printed negative, saying "the right time to move rates is after good economic news." More troubling?
We got an indication of what the Chinese may do on Monday morning on the Yuan's morning fix, after Yellans bullish comments sent the markets rushing to update there forecasts on the date of the next US interest rate rise-I think July. Because on Saturday, unprecedented volume of bitcoin buying out of China, sent the digital currency soaring to the highest level since 2014, as insiders fled the Chinese currency and so to script on Monday the official exchange rate of the onshore Yuan was lower by nearly 0.5%, from 6.5490 to 6.5794, the lowest fixing in more than 5 years, or February 2011.
The end of the Fed’s free ride is that it transported us back out of Wonderland where bad news was good news, which has lasted nearly seven years. For years we’ve seen the market go up when economic news was bad. That Mad-Hatter reaction happened because bad economic news meant the Fed would prolong its stimulus, and stimulus was, by far, the biggest game in town. That dynamic ended on December 16. Now we’re back in economic reality where bad news is simply bad news.
The Fed, QE4, Interest Rate Hikes, and THE FED! Peter Schiff thinks the Fed has finally reached the end of the rope and the so called recovery is about to come to an end. Schiff called the 2008 crash spot on. And – as you may have gathered here – he is a bit of a hero of Tom.
There are some palpable reasons for the markets nervousness at the moment. They include the hush that has settled around the public demonstrations in Hong Kong - where the love of liberty seems to have taken root - and the alarming geometric growth in the number of Ebola infections in West Africa.
Eric Sprott the founder of Sprott Asset Management is perhaps the best known resource investor on earth. He says that he now has 80% of his portfolio in precious metals because the economy is just in a very bad place. It is just that people do not realise it yet so shares, cash in the bank is duff money. Sprott says you should but gold NOW because “when people finally decide they want to buy gold, there probably won’t be any gold.” So asked what he is buying and why Sprott said in a recent interview:
The markets in the first half of September have certainly been interesting. After bouncing back 0.41% in August, the U.S. Comex gold futures have tumbled 3.95% to $1,235.70 month-to-date while the Dollar Index has surged 1.6% this month to 84.074 as of 16 September.
Adrian Day, from Adrian Day Asset Management, is a major bull of gold and puts the case well Hence my colleagues at Palisade Capital interviewed him on his controversial but coherent thoughts the other day. His views on mining stocks are equally forthright and entertaining.
On July 13, gold was still around $1,340 per ounce. Since last Monday, gold has suffered a big drop, falling as low as $1,293 in a few days. Many blame the decline on hawkish comments from the Fed’s Janet Yellen, who recently suggested the Fed could raise interest rates. “Higher interest rates would encourage investors to switch to assets that, unlike gold, pay interest,” said news service Reuters. But Rick Rule, of the world’s biggest gold investor Sprott thinks it is right to be long.
The number of news articles on gold has more than doubled in the past two days as the U.S. Comex gold futures plunged 4.06 percent last Friday and fell even more spectacularly on Monday by 9.34 percent. The Monday's percentage fall was the largest since 1983. The gold futures traded at a record high of 751,058 contracts at the CME.