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Even a few of our detractors have now come around
I read in the Sunday press that West End landlords Capco (CAPC) and Shaftesbury (SHB) are in talks about a £3.5 billion merger. Of course many will highlight some combination of their discounts to book value and how exciting it would be to bring together the owners of “landmarks including Covent Garden and Carnaby Street”. My personal view is that if I never see Covent Garden or Carnaby Street ever again that will be no great loss, but maybe lots of other people have a different view.
Gold miner in the Philippines, Metals Exploration (MTL) has announced an update on the first quarter of the year and that it is “well set to continue to deliver our planned strategy for the coming year”.
One of the best things about not being an institutional fund manager (in my case for nearly nine years now) is being able to manage your own pension fund. One of the first shares that I purchased after switching all of my corporate pension fund away from the terribly boring investment structure that used to run it was Randgold Resources. The west and central Africa gold mining business had already been one of my top institutional holdings for about six years at that point although – if I recall – most other people thought I was a lunatic buying it, especially when there was a bit of political excitement in places such as Mali and the DRC. It was much better than buying an index fund then and that good run continued before it culminated with the company leaving the FTSE 100 index…as it had been purchased by the Canadian giant Barrick Gold (NYSE – GOLD). Very sensibly the Canadians asked the Randgold management team to run the whole business, so I took the shares rather than cash, which brings us four years later to today and full year 2021 numbers…
Hello Share Bundlers. This old punter rarely looks at small miners, given a history of losing money in the game. But with my fellow writers praising the prospect of a rising gold price, there is one company which rather takes my eye.
AltynGold (ALTN) has made a “4th Quarter results” announcement and states that it is “positive that we will deliver even better numbers in the coming year”. So what’s the detail?…
Gold producer in the Philippines, Metals Exploration (MTL) has announced its fourth quarter and full-year 2021 performance and noted guidance for the current year.
Centamin (CEY) has announced “the final quarter delivered what was a highly successful 2021” and that it is now looking forward to delivering on a clear roadmap to growing and unlocking further value from the Sukari gold mine in Egypt and its exploration portfolio. The shares have responded up to 93.425p and look to have much further to go.
Gold producer in the Philippines, Metals Exploration (MTL) states that it “is pleased to announce its quarterly results for Q3 2021” and that further project improvements are coming.
Gold miner in Kazakhstan AltynGold (ALTN) has made an update on the third quarter of the year, with the shares up as it noted that despite lower gold prices “strong production dynamics” still meant revenue was marginally up.
Metals Exploration (MTL) has announced results for the first half of 2021 showing it generating cash and that access to further resource is being developed.
Gold miner in Kazakhstan, AltynGold (ALTN) has announced its results for the first half of 2021 and that the results of its capital expenditure “look promising”.
Gold miner in Egypt, Centamin (CEY) has announced half-year results emphasising “a strong financial and operating performance”. Now capitalised at £1.19 billion, do the results suggest value?
Fully-listed Egyptian Gold-producer Centamin (CEY) updated the market on its West African portfolio of exploration assets yesterday. Broadly speaking, one – Doropo – is being progressed, a second- ABC – is to undergo further testing and a third – Batie West – looks like being shelved. Since I have largely ignored these assets as I value Centamin as it stands now, I’m not so concerned with shelving assets – but the one which is being progressed looks very interesting and could add significant value.
Chaarat Gold (CGH) has announced a first quarter 2021 “Operational Update” emphasising it is “very happy with the performance of the Kapan team in delivering higher production”.
Writing on Shanta Gold (SHG) just a few days ago we noted a positive exploration drilling and resource update had helped the shares up but that there still looked much more to go for. A “Q1 2021 Production and Operational Update” has since helped the shares further higher. So, what’s the detail?
Gold miner in Egypt Centamin (CEY) announced results for the 2020 calendar year emphasising “record revenue of US$829 million… generated significant free cash flow, of US$142 million, a 91% increase, making it possible to propose and pay dividends attributable to 2020 of US$104 million” but also ‘impacted guidance’. A recovery buy?
Shanta Gold (SHG) has announced results for its year ended 31st December 2020 and claims that “2021 presents huge opportunity for Shanta as we continue to strengthen our core operations at New Luika, progress mine construction at Singida that began in Q4 2020 and continue the drilling campaigns underway at our high-grade West Kenya project”. So what’s the detail?…
Kazakhstan gold miner AltynGold (ALTN) is “pleased to announce” a fourth quarter 2020 production update – and the shares have currently responded a pleasing circa 30% higher. So what’s behind the re-rate?…
Ariana Resources (AAU) has announced further progress on the proposed partial disposal of interests in Turkey and of exploration plans. It is all good news and good news not yet fully discounted in the share price.
AltynGold (ALTN) has updated on the third quarter of the year, stating that it is “pleased to announce” the results. So why has the share price response been a fall?…
We’ve previously noted on Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) some impact from the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia “due to the conscription of a number of engineering staff and some recently encountered temporary delays due to underground rock faulting”. Now “Updated Guidance for Turnover and Production”…
Gold miner in Egypt Centamin (CEY) has updated emphasising “the third quarter marked another solid performance”, yet the shares have dropped back to 131.3p. The reason is a reduction in guidance for 2021 but the market has over-reacted…
Shanta Gold (SHG) has updated investors on its quarterly production and operations, including emphasising it now “has a portfolio of high-quality reserves and a pathway to organically grow to a +220,000 per annum producer. At the date of this release the company’s net debt has reduced to US$2m and Shanta is on track to be unhedged by early 2021”…
Shares in East Africa-focused gold producer Shanta Gold (SHG) approached 13p in February with the gold price still then well below $1,700 per ounce. With it now well above $1,900 and looking to have, potentially much, further to go and following recent updates from the company…
Chaarat Gold (CGH) describes itself as an “AIM-quoted gold mining company with an operating mine in Armenia and assets at various stages of development in the Kyrgyz Republic”. The shares commenced 2020 at 35.2p, with the gold price then below $1,550. The gold price is now above $1,950, but the shares are still available at a 38.9p offer price – with the company most recently updating earlier this month…
Shares in closed-end investment company aiming to provide investors with capital growth from a portfolio of companies involved in the gold and precious metals sector Golden Prospect Precious Metals (GPM) reached over 70p last month but have since fallen back and are now at a 65p offer price. With, we consider, top-quality management and the gold bull further to go we now recommend a buy here…
A “Manica Alluvial Gold & Corporate Update” from Xtract Resources (XTR)…
Hello, Share Plungers. As we all know, gold prices have recently been reaching record highs as a hedge against falling GDPs and currency problems after the virus. One of the lucky miners is Barrick Gold (0R22)…
I said yesterday that this correction in gold and gold stocks was not a time for worry, it was time to get out the buying boots. Gold tumbled all the way down to around $1875 per ounce overnight – quite a drop from the recent peak of $2067 and gold stocks were pretty much in freefall yesterday. Some corrections mean hanging around the same prices for an age but this was a good old sell-off. As I write, gold has recovered to $1935…
Gold miner in Kazakhstan Altyn (ALTN) “is pleased to announce 2Q20 production update” and it emphasises “ore mining output up a significant 55% quarter-over-quarter with 143,400 tons of ore mined in 2Q20 (92,324 tons in 1Q20). The positive momentum in production growth is expected to be maintained over the coming quarters”. Why then have the shares responded little changed?…
Returning after a previous profitable recommendation of shares in Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ), in July with the shares at 140p we noted current mines potential but also a geological exploration programme continuing with success. Now an “H1 2020 Geological Exploration Activities” update…
I start with a few other comments on Greek Hovel matters. Then I move on to talk about three companies which I shall be or are discussing with the FCA: Zenith (ZEN), Eqtec (DOG), and Verditek (VDTK). Then onto NatWest Group (NWG) where I apologise for my bad language. Finally my thoughts on the gold price and comments on gold stocks I own: Centamin (CEY), Ariana (AAU), Kefi (KEFI), Bluebird Merchant (BMV), and Xtract (XTR).
I have shares in Bluebird (BMV) and think that at 4.25p they are cheap. They should, IMHO, be trading at 6p and might get into double figures if it can resolve issues with its Aussie, soon to be ex, partners in Korea. But a 34.79p target price, a 69p DCF valuation, is insane as I explained in detail in bearcast yesterday HERE. But that is the target price of Align Research, which owns almost 4% of the shares, and its boss Richard Jennings wants to defend that viewpoint and being a fair man I allow him to do so.
KEFI Minerals (KEFI) “is pleased to provide its latest quarterly operational update”. This is with the update including on its current flagship Tulu Kapi gold project in Ethiopia, “we have received significant interest to potentially provide the outstanding asset level equity and other forms of duly subordinated investment. Our discussions are progressing with Ethiopian investors and international specialist mining financiers, with the aim of securing the required project equity ahead of closing the full financing package in October 2020” and then also “we are also encouraged by the recent approval by the Saudi Cabinet of a new mining investment law, which is a very positive development for our two other advanced projects - Hawiah (copper-gold) and Jibal Qutman (gold) projects in Saudi Arabia”…
A “Q2 & H1 2020 Production and Operations Review” from Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) including “on track to achieve forecast production for FY 2020 of 75,000 to 80,000 GEOs” (Gold Equivalent Ounces)...
Cora Gold (CORA) shares were more than 9p as recently as August, since when the company has particularly published an initial Scoping Study on the Sanankoro gold discovery using $1,400 gold and it last month emphasised “a busy schedule of exploration programmes planned once again. We are confident that positive news flow will be generated throughout the coming months”. With this, gold on the rise above $1,700 per ounce and the shares currently at a 7.5p offer price, giving a below £14.30 million (currently approx. $18 million) market cap, the shares are a buy...
Hello, Share Finders. One of the mysteries about the effect on the market of the pestilence concerns gold. Why has it not risen a lot higher? After all, don't we seek refuge in the yellow metal when shares and currencies let us down in a crisis? True, some gold shares have risen. My own investment in Centamin (CEY) has recovered all my earlier paper losses, for example. But on the whole, gold prices have not rocketed as we might have expected...
Kazakhstan-focused gold company Altyn (ALTN) has updated on Q1 production, emphasising “production up a significant 130% year-over-year” and also that there is presently “minimal” COVID 19 pandemic impact on the operations, with it “closely monitoring the situation while cooperating with relevant authorities”...
There has been some strong gold-related share price rises in recent weeks – we recently noting here Bluebird Merchant Ventures and last month’s tip of the month Trans-Siberian Gold is already comfortably up from the then 60p. Shares in Hummingbird Resources (HUM) have also recently been rising... but a current 28p offer price compares to more than 24p reached in January and still below what was reached in February despite gold now comfortably higher and a recent “Q1 2020 Production Results and Operational Update”...
KEFI Minerals (KEFI) has updated including “despite the need to adjust and reschedule many tasks due to COVID-19, the company remains focused on the preparations and finance milestones to enable major site activities to start at Tulu Kapi from October”, with it also noting “an important new development”...
Shares in gold producer from Russia, Highland Gold Mining (HGM) are 5% higher at near 230p on the back of a quarterly operating update...
A prior update from Trans-Siberian Gold (TSG) included “the company's supply chains remain unaffected and our operations continue to run as normal… Current events have resulted in material changes to commodity prices and foreign exchange rates, which are expected to impact positively on the overall profitability of the group”. The shares have responded up to 60p to buy – but that compares to more than double this in September… it is our March share tip of the month and we expect a rapid re-rate as the gold price soars...
A further Funding Update announcement from gold project developer in South Korea, Bluebird Merchant Ventures (BMV) – and the shares further higher to 3.8p…
It looks as though the mass dash for cash may have halted abruptly as far as gold is concerned – and silver. Having been lower before closing last week at just under $1500, it seems that yesterday’s announcement from Fed Chairman, Buzz Lightyear of QE to inifinity….and beyond has set the gold price alight. We are now at $1665 and rising vertically...
Gold is still up from around $1,300 a year ago and current uncertainty and economic responses look to create a potential perfect storm for precious metals ahead. We believe this is a geared, but lower-risk way than most, to play it… The sell off of gold in the past week is a dash for cash to cover trading losses elsewhere. But that will not last and you MUST have gold exposure.
For price discovery mechanisms to do their job, they need the unimpeded interaction of buying and selling forces in order to point true. Like a compass, it is moved by the collective of external influences. However, it could be argued that the gold price is currently only a "good approximation", which is the best you are going to get. More importantly, if gold is, is often described, the “sum of all fears” - what does the current price tell us about epic global events as they unfold ? As such, gold is also a barometer.
Kazakhstan-focused gold company Altyn (ALTN) “is pleased to announce that significant progress has been achieved in the acquisition of mining equipment following the recent debt raising by the company”…
Goldplat (GDP) has announced results for its half year ended 31st December 2019 and that “the progress made on key initiatives to increase long term visibility of earnings in the recovery businesses, specifically improved recovery on lower grade contaminated material and strengthened relationships within mining industry, are encouraging”…
Ariana Resources (AAU) “is pleased to announce its preliminary production results for the quarter ended 30 September 2019” – and the shares have currently responded slightly higher, back above 2p to buy…
Petropavlovsk (POG) has updated on increased gold sales (to 126.4koz) and average realised gold price (to $1,388/oz) in the third quarter, with CEO Dr Pavel Maslovskiy emphasising “the smooth ramp-up has continued at the POX Hub where we have now successfully commenced treating third party concentrates during the quarter”…
Petropavlovsk (POG) has announced results for the first half of 2019 including that it “remains on track to meet its full-year target of c.450koz - 500koz of gold sales (including the processing of 2018 Malomir stockpiles but excluding upside from third-party concentrate purchases)”, with also “the confidence to decrease total cash cost guidance for the full year to US$750 - US$850/oz”…
Hello Share Ticklers. Gold is on a long-awaited climb in value. We’ve not yet had three quarters of 2019 and the gold price has rocketed by a fifth. Before that, news was glum so the rise started from a relatively low base. It’s my belief, shared by a few others, that the race to buy gold has only just begun...
Hello, Share Pinchers. At last, the gold price is rising. Though that sometimes spells doom for our non-gold related shares, as the rush to buy yellow can be sparked by a doddering general stock market. But which gold-centred company to buy?
Hello, Share Primers. Say what you like about gold explorers, there are a few that try really hard and deserve success. It’s a risky business, prospecting, but the rewards, if they come at all, can be dazzling. And it’s a reasonable strategy to have at least some fun money in this field, given the rosy prospect that some commentators expect on this scintillating website for a rising gold price...
Like a modern day Cassandra from Greek mythology, who was given the gift of prophecy, but cursed by never being believed, gold analysts and indeed the gold price is itself uttering truths - as indeed are leading economic indicators.
A 19th December update from Petropavlovsk (POG) included “the bridge loan will be repaid to Petropavlovsk upon full completion of the new facility which is expected to be in late February 2019”. There’s now an “Update on Temporary Bridge Loan to IRC” announcement…
Hello, Share Jumpers. As the Footsie continues to gain ground with the growing prospect that there’ll be a Brexit soft landing, after all, you could be tempted to veer away from investing in gold. But I’m still minded to have at least a toehold in this hedge against recessions, both homegrown and worldwide...
KEFI Minerals (KEFI) has made an operational update, including “the Regional Government is not yet ready to trigger resettlement due to recent changes to its administration and security structure. However, it has stated that it still wants KEFI/TKGM to be ready to do so later in this current quarter”…
A “Q4 and FY 2018 Production and Operations Review” from Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ), emphasising “full year production at upper range of guidance and net cash of $6.1 million at 31 December 2018”…
Hello, Share Punchers. With fears of Brexit continuing to cancel out the Santa Rally, our thoughts should turn more to that useful hedge against disaster - gold. Now short of buying a few gold bars, which I haven't entirely discounted, by the way, the best way to take advantage of gold is to pick up mining stock. There are a lot of small gold explorers and even producers that I will continue to avoid. But the larger ones might be worth looking into...
Ariana Resources (AAU) has updated on quarterly operations from its 50% owned Kiziltepe mine, including “we are now well on track to exceed our production guidance for the year”…
I don't normally take broker research seriously but a) Galantas (GAL) operates in Ulster so I am biased in its favour and b) analyst Roger Bade at Whitman Howard is no fool. He reckons Galantas at 6p is worth 17.3p per share. The market cap today is £12 million but Bade explains why by 2020 the company could be generating £8 million of cashflow and by 2023 that could be £13 million and that is on uber-cautious gold price assumptions. The note (below) is very much worth a read.
Hello Share Treaders. Down under there is a precious metals company called ECR Minerals (ECR). With gold values possibly set to rise in a difficult environment for most other shares, it might pay to have a gander at this one. ECR’s wholly-owned Australian subsidiary Mercator Gold Australia has Avoca, Bailieston, Moormbool and Timor gold exploration licences in Central Victoria.
Ariana Resources (AAU) has announced results for the first half of 2018, including emphasising “production for the year is expected to exceed initial expectations in the second half” and “we are now in the process of committing to a 4,000m RC and diamond drilling programme across certain projects during the remaining 2018 through to 2019 period”…
Kefi Minerals (KEFI) has announced that, as per the RNS of August 24, it has now signed a binding deal with ANS Mining Share Company which will see ANS invest $30 million for a 23% stake in the Tulu Kapi project (not the PLC). Another $8 million could see that stake go to 29%...
Gold recovery and mining company Goldplat (GDP) has announced results for its year ended 30th June 2018, noting that this “was a year during which a lot was achieved which did not translate into increased production or profitability, but Goldplat is confident that this will materialise during FY 2019”…
You always have to watch your biases in the world of investment. There are some shares or sectors that for personal, historical or other exogenous/endogenous reasons you just love or hate. Regular readers will know that Randgold Resources (RRS) has been one of my structural favourites for many a long year, with the stock one of my largest (and most successful) holdings during the final part of my institutional fund management career, contributing to outperformance and the like.
Ariana Resources (AAU) has announced quarter ended 30th June preliminary production results from its Kiziltepe joint venture, including the company’s Managing Director Kerim Sener emphasising “the results of the past quarter are our best to date, outperforming overall quarterly feasibility-study expectations by 92%”…
Development and exploration company with projects in Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia, KEFI Minerals (KEFI) has announced results for the 2017 calendar year and emphasised “the company's projections and those of the research analysts that follow us closely show significant value generating upside to shareholders from Tulu Kapi alone, let alone from the pipeline of less mature projects which we expect will yield more value-adding opportunities”…
Previously writing on Bluebird Merchant Ventures (BMV) last week, we noted there looks news flow aplenty to potentially spark the shares – and now there’s an announcement of Kochang Underground Grab Sample Results…
An 8p offer price on the initial recommendation piece, shares in Goldplat (GDP) currently trade slightly higher after Update on Negotiation with Rand Refinery and Modification to option Terms between Ashanti Gold and Goldplat for the Anumso Gold Project announcements thus far in January…
This Kefi Minerals (KEFI) share tip at a 0.58p offer has not been a good one so far. We apologise and as shareholders share your pain. The shares are now 0.34p-0.36p. We took more shares in this fundraise at 0.33p on the view that the underlying value is c1p per share. So what has happened?
I explained last week why I thought that shares in Avocet Mining (AVM) were worthless. That was without the knowledge that its Inata gold mine only has a shelf life of three years at the current gold price. The company stated as much on Thursday with the painful admission that cashflow from this period is “unlikely to result in full repayment of creditors”
Hello Share Hopers. Gold prices are not as high as they might be, given the shakiness of the major currencies over this year. These currencies may be come even more unstable in 2017 - the dollar, euro and pound.
Kefi Minerals (KEFI) has been hit by the weaker gold price , issues in Ethiopia at a macro political level and by suggestions that its major shareholder ( Odey) may have its own issues. However Mr Odey is doing, we've established that he is not a seller of Kefi. If he needs to raise cash he will do so via larger more liquid positions. The other issues were addressed in a trading statement last week.
Outgoing Goldplat (GDP) Chairman Brian Moritz considers it “a pleasure to be able to report an improvement in both the production and profitability of Goldplat, led by the recovery operations”, though the shares are currently unchanged on the day at 5.75p…
Shares in Goldplat (GDP) are currently more than 9% higher, at 6p, on the back of a “Trading update” announcement. The following reviews after previous comment from myself last month…
KEFI Minerals (KEFI) “is pleased to announce that it has conditionally raised approximately £3.8 million (approximately US$5 million), before expenses, through the issue of 761,921,740 new ordinary shares… at a price of 0.5p per share”. Is it right to be so?
Hello Share Smoochers. I got so fed up with Centamin (CEY) the big Egyptian gold miner losing share value on a daily basis that I stopped checking its share price nearly a year ago. My shares just festered away with my most little-used broker. I half-heartedly hoped for a Shrodinger Cat-type recovery if I did not look regularly at the price.
Warning: This podcast contains a lot of bad language and images of a sexual nature. As far as I understand it, Sweden is known for the fact that 95% of its population enjoy thrashing the naked buttocks of other folk's partners at the weekend. But it is not this that concerns me but its insane Central bank which has cut interest rates again ... to minus 0.5%. I reflect on this madness and the insanity of Janet Yellen of the Federal Reserve and then on the gold price. I look at a few gold stocks racing ahead wrongly ( Condor (CNR), Goldplat (GDP) and Patagonia Gold (PGD)) and at others I might buy. I comment on the insane dead cat bounce at Motive TV (MTV) and on the odd behaviour of crony capitalist PR man Reg Hoare of TrakM8 (TRAK) and explain why its shares are still a sell. Then it is onto the deadlines for Solo Oil (SOLO) and LGO Energy (LGO) going under as Neil Ritson tries his hand at Leni-Maths. And I also have a trivial pursuit question for you all.
We are aware that shares in Armadale Capital (ACP) have not exactly flown since our initial share tip.
With the markets in turmoil it makes sense to have at least something more defensive in your portfolio. Gold has historically always been good in this type of situation, and whilst I’m nowhere near as bullish as some are about where the gold price is going longer term, it should at least offer some protection over the coming months.
Zimbabwe gold producer Caledonia Mining (CMCL) says it expects to hoist output this year from its Blanket mine in the south-west of the central African state from an expected 42,000 oz. in 2015 to 50,000 oz. Currently based in Toronto but seeking shareholders' approval to move its domicile to Jersey, the AIM-quoted company sees all-in cash costs at Blanket falling over the coming 12 months to around $900 (672) an ounce, against a current gold price of $1,075.60c, at an expected grade of 3.2 to 3.3 grammes of gold per tonne of ore.
You have, by now, read my macro calls for 2016 which you may or may not have dismissed as complete mumbo jumbo but I hope they make sense. You will see that I expect the gold price to pick up during the next 12 months. Not to rocket but to improve and that makes Petropavlovsk (POG) at a 6.7p offer a very obvious first tip of the year.
How many macro-economic forecasters does it take to change a lightbulb? None. You get someone who knows what they are doing to do it. In that vein I offer up my six big macro calls for 2016. I am a bottom up investor - my share tips of the year will follow - so this is not really my forte but I have views - and did study economics at university - and these shape my investment calls. So here goes.
As one of only two gold stocks I follow I thought it opportune to catch up with Amara Mining (AMA) and its CEO John McGloin. I do rate these shares as a buy. And so we chatted.
Petropavlovsk (POG) has updated that it “successfully achieved its Q3 production levels” and “is confidently following its repayment schedule and expects to stay within its financial covenants at the year-end results” - good news!
Mark Learmonth, finance chief at Southern Africa-focused Caledonia Mining Corporation (CMCL), says the company intends to lift gold production from its Blanket Mine in Zimbabwe 90% between 2015 and 2020 to 80,000 oz. a year, with all-in costs driven down from $984 (£647) an ounce to a target $750 by 2018, against a present gold price of $1,166.92c an ounce. The AIM-quoted company, whose chief executive officer Steve Curtis has adopted a different approach since taking over from Stefan Hayden last November, has a 49% interest in Blanket, which boasts a measured, indicated and inferred gold resource of one million oz., and has been striving to improve production, grades and profitability there.
Anyone would think Goldstone Resources (GRL) Non-Executive Chairman Christopher Hall didn’t want anyone to buy his company’s stock. After his glum statement in today’s interims, it’s no wonder the company’s share price has tanked 20% to settle at 1.99p. Shareholders in Goldstone would do well now to ask the company two questions. First, how does the gloomy Hall manage to get out of bed every morning? Second, what the bloody hell is he doing as the company’s Non-Executive Chairman if all he can promise shareholders is that “little more progress can be expected”?
If you want me to analyse a stock for you just drop me a line at sqmir@hotmail.com - Today I look at shares in Central Asia Metals (CAML) and Mariana Resources (MARL) setting share price targets for both. I also look at the gold price.
Broker SP Angel has slashed its forecasts for gold miner Petropavlovsk (POG) citing lower gold prices and output predictions. But with the shares at 5.5p it still sees 40% upside wth a 7.7p target price (down from 11p). The broker note is detailed.
“Toast”. I nearly spat out my breakfast when I heard the CEO of Randgold Resources (RRS) use that word to describe the majority of his competitors in the gold mining space at prevailing commodity prices.
Since publishing “7 Gold Stocks to Buy Now” the price of gold has fallen further, under pressure from a heavy bear raid. With gold now trading at critical long-term technical support, the precious metal is now at a crucial point. If the price breaks below technical support, it could fall much further. However, if it finds its footing at current levels then a strong rally is on the cards. Such binary eventualities can be extremely profitable for investors on the right side of the move. Gold Bugs have taken yet another beating in the recent move lower, but if you remain bullish about the prospects for gold, now might be the time to consider some specific stock ideas. Below I share my contribution to our e-book - Eldorado Gold’s (TSX:ELD & NYSE:EGO).
Ariana Resources (AAU) has updated investors that further exploration work at the Red Rabbit project in western Turkey is continuing to identify new zones of resource potential.
Dan Betts, chief executive officer of West African gold play Hummingbird Resources (HUM) shrugs off both the lacklustre recent performance of the precious yellow metal and his company’s own distinctly less than stellar showing on AIM. He focuses instead on an enhanced production outlook for its 1.8 million-oz. Yanfolila project in Mali, as well as longer-term possibilities for its 4.2 million oz. lower-grade project at Dugbe in Liberia.
West African gold seeker Hummingbird Resources (HUM) says first steps towards construction of a mine at its 1.8 million-oz. Yanfolila project in Mali are ‘imminent’ in the wake of an upbeat project optimisation survey, while chief executive officer Dan Betts argues in the longer term another project, Dugbe in Liberia, promises to be the ‘company maker’. The Yanfolila survey gives the Mali project, which was acquired last year from the Gold Fields group, a net present value of $72.4 million (£49 million) and suggests a 35.1% internal rate of return over 6.5 years at an average gold price of $1,250 an ounce, somewhat above its present price of £1,192.02c.
Gold producers are well worth a look for anyone who is bullish on the metal itself, and offer some degree of leveraged play. One which would definitely be on my list to have a look at is Centamin Egypt (CEY) which is currently trading around 54p, and with a market cap of £620 million.
Canadian miner Kirkland Lake Gold (KGI) expects to follow record February gold production of 16,485 oz. from the historic Kirkland Lake camp in Ontario at a high grade of 17.8 grammes of gold per tonne of ore with an updated formal resource statement for the whole company in early April. Kirkland, which has achieved a significant turnaround under chief executive officer George Ogilvie, reckons this will show drilling has, in his words, ‘replaced what we have mined’, with a climb in head grade and a possible lift in proven and probable reserves from the present 1.4 million oz. at 17.1 grammes a tonne, with a measured and indicated resource of 2.1 million oz. at 16.8 grammes a a tonne as well as a 1.1 million-oz. inferred resource at 18.5 grammes a tonne.
Mark Child, chief executive officer of Central America-focused Condor Gold (CNR), is preparing the ground to seek key environmental, infrastructure and water permits to enable the company’s La India epithermal project in mining-friendly Nicaragua to start producing in two and a half years from a total potential resource of 2.3 million oz. with a robust average grade of four grammes of gold per tonne of ore. He suggests this process could take two months while AIM-quoted Condor moves to buy surface rights at La India across 700,000 hectares for $700,000 and strives to make the project attractive to potential joint venture partners or bidders ahead of production.
A very pleasing set of numbers from Randgold Resources (RRS) earlier this week confirmed that it is clearly the best larger cap gold company in the world. The Q4/FY update reinforced its consistent achievement of the gold sector’s holy trinity of rising production/grade, all in cost control way under spot gold prices and a solid balance sheet (in its case now with net cash on it).
West Africa-focused gold play Amara Mining (AMA) has hoisted the formal indicated mineral resource at its Yaoure project in Cote d’Ivoire 63% to 4.4 million oz. at a low grade of 1.29 grammes of gold per tonne of ore. Citing another 2.4 million oz. there with gold at 1.19 grammes a tonne in the more tentative inferred resource category, the AIM-quoted company, which began life as Cluff Gold, says this confirms Yaoure as the largest gold development project in the region and indicates it expects a pre-feasibility study to be completed in March.
Africa-focused Alecto Minerals (ALO) says it is ‘on track’ to establish a maiden resource estimate this year for the Kerboule gold prospect in West Africa’s Djibo gold belt in northern Burkina Faso, while the AIM-quoted company actively canvasses prospective partners for its Kossanto project in Mali, potentially hosting more than 500,000 oz. of gold. Alecto, which also has joint ventures with fully-listed Centamin (CEY) at two gold prospects in Ethiopia, acquired Kerboule in November in a £350,000 all-share deal and now says analysis of previous drilling data over the 3,995-sq.-km. project has identified three discrete deposits with ‘numerous vein sets’.
Gold has been the despair of its fans ever since hitting $1,900 an ounce three years ago. Instead of soaring above $2,000 and on into the stratosphere, amid international political and economic turbulence, the perverse yellow metal has slithered back to below $1,180 an ounce, as the US economy and dollar have proved unexpectedly strong and oil has lately taken a spectacular tumble.
A year ago I tipped Randgold Resources (RRS) as my ‘FTSE-100 tip of the year’ and despite the volatility in the underlying gold price and desperate performance of the average gold miner the tip has done well and has nicely outperformed the UK’s leading share index.
Mike Hodgson, chief executive officer of Serabi Gold (SRB), says he expects the AIM-quoted company to hoist gold production in northern Brazil’s Tapajos region from a disappointing maiden annual rate of 20,000 oz. to more than 35,000 oz. in the coming year, as its high-grade Sao Chico project starts to swell the quantity of gold now being extracted from its existing operation at Palito. Quoted on AIM and in Toronto and backed by Chile’s billionaire Solari business dynasty, Serabi has obtained a temporary trial mining licence for Sao Chico and must conduct what Hodgson describes as the equivalent of a pre-feasibility study to secure a permanent licence, which he anticipates ‘will be done and dusted by mid-2015.’
While Scotgold Resources (SGZ) presses on with its projects for extracting gold and silver at Cononish and other deposits in the Argyle region, AIM investors might soon have the opportunity to speculate on another Scottish gold digger. Dr. Paul Dougan, a lawyer and scientist in the resources field, is currently seeking to raise £2 million at 25p in a pre-float funding for Scotia Exploration, whose stated ambition is to be ‘in full production of gold from the southern uplands of Scotland in the third quarter of 2016’.
Africa-focused explorer Alecto Minerals (ALO) has bought another gold project in Burkina Faso, to add to its interests in Mali, Mauritania and Ethiopia. The London-based company, which recently appointed as chairman City veteran Mark Wellesley-Wood, who once sought to revive Cornish tin mining, is acquiring the Kerboule gold project in the West African country’s Djibo gold belt, near fellow AIM counter Avocet Mining’s Inata gold mine, in a deal which chief executive officer Mark Jones suggests ‘is capable of delivering significant returns.’
Shares in gold recovery from by-products of the mining process-focused AIM Listed Goldplat plc (GDP) currently trade 6.5% lower, at 3.625p, on the back of an update including that “deliveries of concentrates were not made to Goldplat's third party refinery as a result of temporary industrial strike action and subsequent delays at the refinery”. The following updates on this latest disappointment from the company.
Gold has fallen from over $1,300 in mid-August to around $1,210 per ounce as of October 2, dragging many gold-related stocks down with them. Is this an opportunity to buy or will things get worse? Steve Todoruk of the famed resource investor Sprott argues that it is the former.
Nearly two weeks ago I suggested a buying opportunity could be brewing in the gold market. I now believe we’ve reached that point. Using my preferred technical indicator, the MIDAS Method, the price of gold has breached a critical level of support. On Tuesday the price rallied strongly off this, only to retreat again. Today, the market looks like it is once more finding its footing and a rally from here could gain some serious momentum.
Ian Visagie, chief executive officer of gold recovery specialist Goldplat (GDP), says the company is moving fast to enhance profitability and expand and diversify its business after turning a £207,000 pre-tax profit into a £248,000 loss in the year to June on turnover down 27 per cent to £21 million. Focused chiefly on South Africa and Ghana, Goldplat, which extracts gold from mining waste, such as wood chips, mill liners, fine carbon, sludge and waste grease, suffered from a falling gold price in 2013-14, with operating profit before finance costs plunging from £2.6 million to £153,000 and its shares at 3.5p are down from a year’s high of 8.5p and a 2006 float price of 7.5p.
On Tuesday I described how gold speculators were charging for the exit. Since then the market for the precious metal has deteriorated further. Precipitous price drops have combined with increasingly bearish technical indicators. The chart below looks like it is on the verge of total breakdown and 2014’s rally hangs in the balance. However, for the bold trader, this could all be creating amenable conditions for an excellent contrarian long trade.
Loss-making, debt-ridden, with production falling and assets in areas close to the Ebola epidemic, bombed-out West Africa-focused gold play Avocet Mining (AVM) has taken an urgent step to retrieve matters, by commissioning a $7 million (£4.25 million) carbon blinding circuit. Chief Executive Officer David Cather argues this should increase monthly gold production from the AIM-quoted company’s flagship five million-oz.-resource Inata gold mine in Burkina Faso from between 7,000 oz. and 8,000 oz. to 10,000 oz. and increase recoveries from toxic ores from 40 per cent to near 75 per cent.
Goldplat (GDP) has been in decline since mid-2012, but now seems to have settled at its lowest point in more than five years and could be worth a look. The AIM-listed company is actually profitable and debt-free through its gold recovery businesses in South Africa and Ghana (although not overall). However the share price now sits at around 4p, leaving Goldplat with a market cap of under £7 million, a far cry from the highs of over 16p in 2012.
Adrian Day, from Adrian Day Asset Management, is a major bull of gold and puts the case well Hence my colleagues at Palisade Capital interviewed him on his controversial but coherent thoughts the other day. His views on mining stocks are equally forthright and entertaining.
‘August brings into sharp focus and a furious boil everything I've been listening to in the late spring and summer ‘ - Henry Rollins. One of the advantages about having a few summers under your belt in this investment game is that you have lived through a few different cycles both good and…less good. My favourite ‘August investment memory’ was three years ago back when I was a professional wage slave and the combination of quiet offices, gyrating financial markets and a rampant gold price was really quite pleasant for the relative performance of the investment portfolios I was managing.
After two years of losses, Canadian miner Kirkland Lake Gold (KGI) is poised to start making money again from its high-grade Macassa and South Mine complex, holding potentially three million ounces or more of the yellow metal in Western Ontario’s south Abitibi greenstone belt. The company, quoted on AIM and in Toronto, lost a quadrupled £8.5 million on a reduced £94 million turnover in the year to April, but expects the first quarter of the current year to show dramatic improvements in costs, grades and production. The company’s turnaround strategy, initiated in January by incoming chief executive officer George Ogilvie, looks like it is beginning to bear fruit.
On July 13, gold was still around $1,340 per ounce. Since last Monday, gold has suffered a big drop, falling as low as $1,293 in a few days. Many blame the decline on hawkish comments from the Fed’s Janet Yellen, who recently suggested the Fed could raise interest rates. “Higher interest rates would encourage investors to switch to assets that, unlike gold, pay interest,” said news service Reuters. But Rick Rule, of the world’s biggest gold investor Sprott thinks it is right to be long.
If you are bullish on gold prices in the near future and like risk then Petropavlovsk (POG) is well worth a look. This is by no means a safe bet, and if you’re not prepared for the remote possibility of losing the lot then this certainly isn’t for you – but then the same can be said of many companies!
The Chinese expression "Real gold is not afraid of the melting pot" suggests that if you have genuine quality, then you will not fear adversity. Well, in that sense, the London gold fix, an institution with a history going back nearly 120 years, is facing its own test as regulators question whether or not the process is "fit for purpose". The gold fix is in essence a benchmark price that is derived twice a day from actual trades all concentrated into a short space of time to determine an objective price for gold.
West African gold play Hummingbird Resources (HUM) is celebrating the conclusion of a transformational $20 million (£11.75 million) all-share acquisition which, says founder and chief executive Dan Betts, will set the AIM-quoted company on the road to becoming a 200,000 oz.-a-year gold producer. With estimated gold resources of six million oz. Hummingbird, which lost £2.2 million in the year to May 2013, ‘will be profitable in 18 months,’ declares Betts, as he extols the merits of securing South African mining colossus Gold Fields’ assets in Mali for shares giving Gold Fields a 26.3 per cent stake in the company.
Surely never before have so many lines been written by journalists on a subject that they palpably know so little about and have made little attempt to understand... as the London gold fix.
I get periodic requests to take a look at Solgold (SOLG). It’s not normally a stock I would consider buying. Too many people follow it. Even so, I have taken a bit of a look through the numbers and reports. From a fundamental perspective, I can’t see much to tempt me. With a £50.4million market cap this looks on the high side, for a company at this stage of development. I don’t say this to wind up Solgold’s shareholders, but we know that taking a company from exploration to mining is extremely expensive. While funding conditions remain tight and metal prices recover slowly there just isn’t much to get too excited about. However, I noted this morning’s announcement of options awarded to Solgold’s directors and now wonder whether or not this stock might be one to trade in the coming months.
Richard Poulden, the barrister and entrepreneur who built potash play Sirius Minerals by acquisitions around the world into a company with a stock market value of more than £200 million, confesses to one particular enthusiasm: gold. He argues the stage is set for a major increase in the price of bullion, largely attributable to the machinations of the People’s Republic of China, and, as executive chairman and key shareholder of AIM-quoted Wishbone Gold (WSBN), he is seeking to grasp opportunities among newly producing or soon to be producing gold projects.
Rick Rule, Chairman of Sprott US Holdings Ltd. said in early March that the market looked overheated and was due for a pullback. Gold and silver had just delivered double-digit gains in a few months. Sure enough, from mid-March until early June, the precious metals gave up much of their gains. Since early June, resource stocks have surged higher once again. So the question was: Where is gold headed for the remainder of the year? Will this rally pull back?
Swimming against the tide could pay off for West Africa-focused Aureus Mining (AUE), as it prepares to take its one million oz.-plus New Liberty gold project in Liberia’s Bea Mountain area into production early next year. It will also test likely prospects elsewhere in the country, such as nearby Ndablama, which chief executive officer David Reading hints could be in the same league. The AIM-quoted company claims New Liberty will be virtually the only new mine to open in West Africa at that time and should be able to produce 100,000 oz. of gold in its first year, rising to an annual 120,000oz. for at least six years, with foreshadowed all-in cash costs of $850/oz, against a current price of $1,315.80/oz.
Just over a month ago I wrote about gold’s break to the downside. Since then, the precious metal found its footing at about $1,250/oz and then rallied quite strongly, in response to the Federal Reserve signalling that monetary policy could remain loose for longer than many expected. Gold now trades at $1,325/oz, last seen and I’ve just taken a look at the latest Commitment of Traders (CoT) report for gold to try and gain some insight into the strength of the move higher. I’m afraid things don’t look too positive and much will depend on whether more speculators can be tempted back into the market.
Not many mining shares at present have doubled from their 12-month lows, but one that has is West African gold play Amara Mining (AMA). Last year it boosted its estimated gold resource at Yaoure in Cote d’Ivoire from 200,000 oz. to more than six million oz. and expects soon to shift more of the 5.5 million oz. which is now in the mining industry’s tentative ‘inferred’ category into the firmer ‘measured and indicated’ classification. AIM-quoted Amara, which raised £22 million in May at 17p, is engaged in a £10 million 80,000-metre drill campaign, one of the largest ever in Africa. This is to fill in gaps left by previous efforts, upgrade the resource at Yaoure, which currently averages a modest 1.4grams of gold per tonne of ore, and, suggests executive chairman John McGloin, possibly add another 500,000 to one million oz. to the project’s resource.
Steve Todoruk, an Investment Executive at Sprott Global Resource Investments Ltd. since 2003, said recently positive signs were beginning to take shape for the bigger mining firms. Many of these big companies are now healthy enough to start acquiring assets, scooping up the low-hanging fruit in the sector – attractive assets or companies that are still cheap.
Charles Oliver manages the Sprott Gold & Precious Minerals Fund, which invests principally in gold and silver mining and exploration companies. The last time Sprott spoke with Mr. Oliver, he said the fundamentals for gold still looked attractive, based on gold’s historical performance relative to the Dow Jones. Sprott spoke with him recently in Toronto. Click to read the interview.
Steve Todoruk joined Rick Rule in 2003 at Sprott Global Resource Investments Ltd., after running several small exploration companies himself. Steve believes the latest signs for the resource sector are pointing upwards, as the latest acquisition activity in the sector shows that big miners are feeling healthier and more confident. He warns that metals prices could remain low, but it looks like big mining firms are beginning to exit the slump intact:
In this month’s Markets at a Glance, we present a collection of thoughts on why we think precious metals are a compelling investment now.
The U.S. Comex gold futures have declined 2.03% on Tuesday after the U.S. Memorial Day weekend while the S&P 500 Index has risen 0.60% and the Euro Stoxx 50 Index has climbed 1.32% for the week.
This morning I published the following article and incorrectly referred to the latest data in the Commitment of Traders (CoT) report as being up to May 6th. In fact the latest data goes to May 13th. I've edited the piece below, but broadly my argument still stands. I've made appropriate corrections and thank a devoted, almost obsessive, reader in the North for alerting us;
It’s been a few weeks since I last covered gold. There hasn’t really been much to say. The precious metal has traded in a tight $30 range, since the end of March. Such periods of inaction have been relatively rare over the last decade, but I wonder now if there are increasing signs that pressure is building for a break to the upside.
A Chilean retailing dynasty is helping AIM-quoted Serabi Gold (SRB) take two gold projects in northern Brazil into production. The target is to mine 24,000oz of gold this year and between 40,000oz and 45,000oz next. The anticipated costs are projected to fall from around the current expected $1,100/oz to nearer $850/oz. With gold trading at about $1,303/oz and looking fairly stable, this could provide investors with an intriguing opportunity to buy into this sector.
Eric Sprott, Founder and Chairman of Sprott Asset Management, said recently that he expects a “significant re-rating of the gold price” due to high physical demand from China and India, coupled with a gold supply shortfall. The effect, which he calls the “Chinese Gold Vortex,” is rapidly taking physical gold from West to East. When the West runs out of gold, the price should go much higher, he believes. I recently spoke with him on the phone about his near-term views.
Clearly, as things stand, anyone who has been attempting to buy the likes of Petropavlovsk (POG), Kazakhmys (KAZ) and African Barrick Gold (ABG) as potential bottom fishing candidates will not have had an easy ride so far in 2013. Indeed, it could be argued that unless your timing has been perfect, such antics could be included as one of the most foolish things to do year to date.
Reasons to be bearish part 2. The first reason to sell Centamin (CEY) was political – it operates in Egypt where there is zero long term visibility for businesses since the regime change. But there is now a fundamental reason to offload the stock pronto – the maths simply do not stack up.
