Hello Share Managers. There’s less than a fortnight to your cool yule. But there’s still time for a Santa rally. Except that there won’t be one this year. I can hardly believe I’m saying this but there isn't a bullish thought in my old body at present. Here’s why.
Where do I start with the recent headlines about shares in the Royal Mail (RMG)? We certainly could start with the observation late yesterday that “Postal strike looms as Royal Mail workers back walkouts in pay and jobs row”. Alternatively, we could look at this morning’s observation about first quarter trading of “revenue down 11.5% year on year…reflecting weakening retail trends, lower test kit volumes and a return to structural decline in letters”. And we could even talk about the observation - also out today - that “Royal Mail threatens split after name change to International Distributions Services”. Or we could just talk again about ANOTHER fall in Royal Mail’s share price!
Back in November last year I wondered if I was going to choose Royal Mail (RMG) as a new buy for 2022. But when it got the end of December the share price had risen from about 430p to approximately 520p and hence I was happy to keep on ignoring it. So why did Royal Mail shares react badly to its numbers last week, meaning their year-to-date fall is now nearly 40%? It is a good job then that I decided to ignore the share late last year…but is it a potential buy now?
Hello Share Pickers. You’ve probably noticed the number of parcels arriving at yours and your family’s homes have grown considerably. The Royal Mail (RMG) can thank the pandemic for this boom, it’s safer to shop online these days. The parcel craze has saved the Royal Mail because letters are so old hat now. Email has largely taken over.
Hello, Share Ramblers. Royal Mail (RMG) had been a steady disappointment for this family ever since it went public but more recently it’s been in a bull run and the latest numbers show the rally is likely to continue.
A few years ago I did own some shares in Royal Mail (RMG) on the basis that (1) it could be managed better as a private company rather than a state owned one and; (2) its property ownership in places such as the Nine Elms site in south London offered it the scope to even further improve its alright net cash position. Anyhow, I made a bit of money but lost interest in the shares at/around the 600p level in 2018. For many obvious reasons (fewer letters, worker angst and growing competition in the parcel business), the Royal Mail had a shocking couple of years after that, meaning by June last year I noted that its new chair Keith Williams had a big job going forward. And he certainly did but – as shown by the near tripling of the share price since – I doff my hat to him.
I read in today’s press that ‘British Telecom (BT.A) has picked the former chief executive of Royal Mail (RMG) and ITV (ITV) to be its new chairman…Adam Crozier is expected to resign as chairman of the online fashion retailer Asos (ASC) to focus on the role, although he is tipped to stay on as chairman of Whitbread (WTB)’. How exciting!
Hello, Share Pleasers. It’s hard to see how Royal Mail (RMG) could make a mess of things and not benefit from a boom in parcel sending. This family’s held its Royal Mail shares since privatisation yonks ago and at several stages along the way I’ve been wringing my hands. Not any more. Recovery and beyond has happened over recent years and has been accelerated by the bug.
Hello, Share Stitchers. Royal Mail (RMG) currently has a P/E of about 10. That’s half my usual average and suggests the stock could be a bargain. Remember gang, that this is a company which benefitted hugely from the pandemic. When you can buy few non-food goods any other way, why shouldn’t the mail bags swell.
Hello Share Trackers. This family has held Royal Mail (RMG) shares since the privatisation in 2013. And I don’t think we have faced better prospects for the stock than we do now. The pandemic has helped with more people buying online, as well as sending parcels to friends and relatives they can no longer visit. But even before the virus, growing numbers were buying stuff over the net.
Hello, Share Collectors. An outfit which has continually disappointed this old punter shows signs of at last bucking up. And given the surge of interest in online selling, that’s not surprising. Royal Mail (RMG) has just reported that revenues rose by a fifth in the third quarter. A record number of parcels were delivered home and abroad…
Hello, Share Trackers. As I’m moving house next year, I’ve been downsizing by selling stuff on eBay. So I know something about parcel delivery. If you have a tiny parcel to send, Royal Mail (RMG) charges £3.10. If you have a bigger parcel, Royal Mail can still charge £3.10. When you want to send a very heavy parcel, Hermes does a cheaper deal. And parcel delivery is an area which is the most promising for Royal Mail…
Hello, Share Pickers. Though the latest numbers from Royal Mail (RMG) could have been worse, I’m not altogether happy about holding my bunch of shares much longer. A tiny part of this view is unfairly coloured by personal experience. One package I recently wrapped carefully came back in bits (I was compensated). And prices for some parcels have gone up...
Royal Mail (RMG) really should be renamed Royal Wail by long-suffering shareholders. Today's full year to the end of March numbers are unsurprisingly in two parts, although the gap between pre-Covid lockdown and the last few months is not as wide as seen by other corporate names. If only this could solely reflect a necessity, utility-style, business at the heart of our national life...
Hello, Share Thinkers. I’m indebted to the reader who added a few useful suggestions to my weekend piece on the 22 benefits of self-isolation. Both for his ideas and the comforting general view he added which went something like: ‘Once it’s over, we can all look forward to 10 years of rising share prices’. That’s what happened after the 2008 bank crash. Meanwhile here’s another share in my current series that could benefit from the crisis...
You can always rely on the Royal Mail (RMG), right? As a postal service I think it is a world leader but the trouble is that in today's world that is far from enough. Today's nine month trading update may have started with an assertion that 'we had a busy Christmas season...overall, our recent trading performance has been broadly in line with our expectations', but dig a little deeper and issues emerge. After all, there is a reason why the shares are at an all-time low today, at not even a third of the 600p level achieved in early 2018…
Top tip: if you ever wish to take the 3am flight from Dubai to London Heathrow (which arrives at 7am UK time) is not to have arranged a bunch of conference calls and even a presentation (fortunately online) for the few hours afterwards. So I am struggling a bit today, but needs must as it is a few days since I have published. I expect I will go back and consider reporters earlier this week such as easyJet (EZJ) another time, but let us review three names that strike me as worthy of note today. First up...bad boy Royal Mail (RMG)…
All you can say about the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is that he is edging closer to power than even many of his supporters could ever have hoped for even in their wildest dreams. Of course we live in strange times and almost anything currently seems to be a potential policy runner...including a completely mad plan to renationalise a bunch of different industries.
Trading updates have been coming through thick and fast over the last few days, accompanied by an influx of tipster tips and broker ratings. In this week’s article, we review two companies that have attracted the highest number of tips over the last seven days, and assess whether consensus sentiment is positive or negative in each case.
Hello, Share Spinners. With the shops already beginning to stock up Christmassy things (shame!), businesses significantly affected by the Yule spirit will soon begin to bounce up. Or not fall as quickly as they might have done, according to their own unique circumstances. One such company is Royal Mail (RMG).
In part one yesterday, I talked about some of the complexities around the FTSE 100 today...but finished the piece by promising some stock picks. Before I get into these I have to highlight Nigel's piece yesterday, which absolutely nails the opportunities around names such as BT Group (BT.A),Centrica (CNA) andITV (ITV).
Who would have thought a stodgy stock like Royal Mail (RMG) would be such a trading counter? Over the last year alone it has moved between a sub four quid share price and pushing 630p a share...and when I look back over the last year it has been one of my top active selection larger cap names. I have not owned the name for a few months now but it has come back on my radar today as its regulator Ofcom has just slapped it with a £50 million fine.
Hello Share Shapers. Royal Mail (RMG) is not a share I would buy more of. I will however hang onto those I do have for a while longer. Though I really ought to be looking for a good exit point I think.
hope over the festive period all your Christmas cards and parcels were both received and sent successfully. Personally I still await the successful delivery of a book I self-gifted...but rather than turn this into a self-centred rant I thought we would talk about the Royal Mail (RMG).
In a world of omnipresent instant communication and next day delivery options, I am not really sure there is that much difference between the first and second class letter service - and I am certain that many of you reading this in rural communities can barely distinguish between the two. Anyhow, Royal Mail (RMG) has itself been downgraded this morning with the news it is out of the FTSE-100 and into the mid-cap melee known as the FTSE-250.
Hello Share Shedders. When I invested in Royal Mail (RMG) on the golden day it went public, I made an instant paper profit. I sold the shares soon afterwards at an even bigger gain. However, others in my family, hung onto their shares. And since July 2016 there has been a slough of despond.
The future of ShareProphets as an independent critic of the London Stock Exchange has come into question after a unexpected declaration of ownership change to Quindell's Rob Terry, as declared by an official government agency.
Hello Share Trundlers. There are folk who think investing in Royal Mail (RMG) is doomed to failure. They point to falling numbers of letters coming through our doors and the possibility of big companies like Amazon to arrange their own deliveries.
Hello Share Crunchers. Let me send you a letter recommending you research Royal Mail (RMG). I believe, though am not entierly sure as I don't look too closely into her finances, that my wife still holds some shares. So I am not entirely unbiased. Though I sold mr Royal Mail stock some time ago for a tasty profit - and have no plans at present to buy them back. This is not because I believe the share has a limited prospect of rising, but because this family already owns enough Royal Mail shares. Eggs and baskets and all that.
Hello Share Springers. I sold my shares in Royal Mail (RMG) ages ago, but my wife hung onto hers. I think so anyway, as I only usually look at my own portfolio. The reason I sold was because I feared competition from a hoard of other companies which seemed happy to cash in on a booming parcel trade. Obviously, the surge in internet shopping is making that little market much more attractive.
Six months ago after rhapsodising about the 4.5%+ dividend yield I described the Royal Mail (RMG) as:
‘…a brand that has persisted for hundreds of years and it is not going away. As a balance to your blood, guts and violence capital gain stocks it works’
And in that sense the outperformance versus the broader FTSE-100 index since then has been pleasing to note albeit still down a handful of percent since the call was made versus 10% for the UK’s large cap index. Of course you can’t eat relative performance…but that’s where that dividend comes in.
The initial post IPO period for a stock or market can be a very dynamic one for a stock, with the rewards significant for those who can call a positive re-rating well on the timing front. This is something one would be trying to achieve at Sanne Group (SNN), where it can be seen how from the initial 200p offer price the shares opened at 220p and have essentially never looked back.
Royal Mail (RMG) has announced its results for the six months until the 28 September. Profits were down slightly from £233 million last year to £218 million this year. The issue of ‘Universal Service’ (the universe comprising of the United Kingdom in this case) is a key one to the company.
A week ago I published a review of the status of some of my tips I originally made a few months ago (here ). So how about some of the more recent names I have mentioned? I am happy to say that on balance I am, well ahead!