Despite being the most boring and large cap focused writer on these pages, in case you did not know I too have the horn for gold. I am such a geek that I even have an asset allocation formula to tell me what percentage of my pension fund I should allocate to the precious metals space. For those of you who can stand a bit of maths (unrelated to US election college calculations) on a Friday, you take the index point value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (28,390 as per the close yesterday) and divide into that the dollar gold price (1947). A quick flourish with a calculator will tell you this gives you 14.6% (to 1dp) which should be your precious metals weighting in my opinion.
I enjoyed contributing and participating in the MineProphets online conference on Saturday - and I hope those of you who purchased entry tickets came away with multiple ideas and a few new tips to consider. Certainly, there was a bunch of pro-gold calls but - as Tom noted in his post-conference bearcast - such bias is kind of inevitable given the nature of the conference and the speakers. I would double reiterate Tom's observation that the institutional investor world is still today - on average - very far behind on the gold call...
I have rhapsodised enough times on this website about one of my favourite global corporate chief executives, Mark Bristow who has evolved from being in charge of the previously London listed Randgold Resources to (via a corporate transaction) heading up Barrick Gold which is primarily listed in Canada and the United States.
I do like it when a plan comes together and looking at the Polymetal (POLY) share price nestling above eight quid, I am really happy with how my call back in May (and two further write-ups since) loving up the Russia-focused gold and silver producer has progressed…
So we wake to Sky (SKY) having a new owner, as media behemoth Comcast beat another media behemoth Fox (in effective combination with Disney) in a blind auction for Europe's biggest satellite TV operator. Boy did it pay up though. Comcast won with a final bid of £17.28 a share, versus a Fox bid of £15.67 a share for the 61% of Sky it did not already own. So if you own Sky shares...well done. As I own Disney shares, I feel more relief that it did not massively overpay (Disney is already buying a bunch of assets from 21st Century Fox and is in the throes of launching its own streaming channel to compete with Amazon and Netflix, so it has enough on its plate).
When a sector is showing weakness it can be tempting to sell up and move into something else, but often if you are in for the longer term then this is actually the time to be adding to your investment.
You always have to watch your biases in the world of investment. There are some shares or sectors that for personal, historical or other exogenous/endogenous reasons you just love or hate. Regular readers will know that Randgold Resources (RRS) has been one of my structural favourites for many a long year, with the stock one of my largest (and most successful) holdings during the final part of my institutional fund management career, contributing to outperformance and the like.
Hello, Share Pilots. There is so many predictions of a earth-shattering share crash on this lively website, that we must all be feeling nervous. We all remember a few black days, only nine years ago, when it began to look as all shares would be worth hardly anything at all. Picture your mind’s desolation if that were to happen again. Here are a few precautions you might take.
I know, I know...I do have a bit of a perma love-up with Randgold Resources (RRS), London's largest listed gold company but as it is a year since I wrote my latest paean I felt an update was overdue following last Thursday's numbers.
When it comes to picking a company which is going to perform well over the course of a year, I believe that you need to consider the macro-economic factors that are likely to affect the sector in which it operates.
It was a real rollercoaster ride for precious metals and shares last week, following the results of the US elections and a surprise win for Donald Trump, but this could present some great buying opportunities.
Gold has been showing signs of weakness but I am yet to be convinced that this is justified and I think the market has over-reacted, which means that there are some good opportunities around for gold bulls.
Too many years ago to remember I recall one of my University lecturers observing that ‘life is a trade-off problem’. He was highlighting some tedious point about microeconomics, but I have a bit of a personal quandary at midday: should I review the latest interest rate and inflation information dump from the Bank of England (‘Super Thursday’) or listen to the Randgold Resources (RRS) quarterly conference call?
Gold seems to be in an uptrend so maybe it is time to get a bit of exposure to the gold sector once more? But how? We adsked ten writers connected to this site and/or speaking at UK Investor show on Saturday if they had to bet the ranch on one stock what would it be?
I don’t need to write another love-up article on Randgold Resources (RRS) because with the shares up 50% odd year-to-date you should be looking elsewhere for a bit of relative value. Extending this line of thinking today’s announcement from Polymetal (POLY) is another common sense corporate update from the Russia-focused gold play. Yes I have used the words ‘Russia-focused’ and ‘common sense’ in the same sentence.
Hello Share Polishers. They tell me that all the gold in the world is only enough to cover a football pitch. Though nobody informed how deep the deposit should be. TW Note: It is actually "fill an Olympic sized swimming pool."
With turmoil on markets across the world, gold has seen a resurgence in popularity since the start of the year. It was as recently as late autumn of 2015 when many seemed to be predicting that gold would drop below the $1,000 area, and could possibly even go as low as the $800-850 range.
John Meyer of SP Angel this morning comments on RandGold Resources (RRS) and Pan African Resources (PAF) as well as offering a detailed macro view on the news that is shaping global mining and the AIM mining pond.
With the markets in turmoil it makes sense to have at least something more defensive in your portfolio. Gold has historically always been good in this type of situation, and whilst I’m nowhere near as bullish as some are about where the gold price is going longer term, it should at least offer some protection over the coming months.
I don’t know who uttered the phrase ‘you cannot eat relative performance’ first but it strikes me as a very relevant statement to describe my first two tips of the year. But I had a big winner. Thank you Greece!
I actually was not going to write-up Thursday’s quarterly update from the world’s best larger cap gold mining stock Randgold Resources(RRS). The numbers showed good progress: rising production at an attractively low cash cost, a building net cash balance and exciting prospective exploration development opportunities.
John Meyer of SP Angel this morning comments on Anglo Pacific Group (APF), BlueRock Diamonds (BRD), Glencore (GLEN) and Randgold Resources (RRS) as well as offering a detailed macro view on the news that is shaping global mining and the AIM mining pond.
The global mega cap energy sector reporting period kicked off today with BP(BP/) reporting 'underlying profit of US$1.8bn for the third quarter of 2015, up US$500m on the previous quarter, along with plans to rebalance its financial framework and grow value long term'. Well that sounds like something for everyone then: profits sequentially up and more than a hint or two about the importance of remunerating it shareholders.
John Meyer of SP Angel this morning comments on Capital Drilling (CAPD), Rambler Metals (RMM), Randgold Resources (RRS) & Tri-Star Resources (TSTR) as well as offering a detailed macro view on the news that is shaping global mining and the AIM mining pond.
“Toast”. I nearly spat out my breakfast when I heard the CEO of Randgold Resources (RRS) use that word to describe the majority of his competitors in the gold mining space at prevailing commodity prices.
Early August: whilst most think about upcoming or just passed holidays, the last couple of Ashes tests or – for the real geeks amongst you – the finer points of the Bank of England’s big data dump, my mind muses about the 2015 tips I published at the turn of the year. Amusingly enough – as often these things fall – both my main tips reported yesterday: Aviva (AV/) and Randgold Resources (RRS). I will come back on the world’s leading larger cap gold miner later after their conference call but first…the dull world of insurance.
As the long-awaited Grexit looms ever larger, the price of gold could well be priming itself for a strong summer rally. Currently at $1,167/oz., the precious metal is trading at the bottom of its annual range and sentiment towards it is decidedly bearish. These are prime conditions for a contrarian reversal and if the Greek crisis intensifies over the coming weeks, gold should benefit greatly from any flight to safety. Such a move higher in gold will be positive for the battered gold miners and chief among these Randgold Resources (RRS) looks an appealing buy.
A month or so ago at the UK Investor Show I sat on a panel with Ed of Stockopedia and Thierry the technical guru in a screens versus technicals versus fundamentals debate which you can watch here. To cut to the chase my view would be that whilst you should not close your mind off to anything the key for choosing investments for me are fundamental factors like cash flow, selected earnings indicators, the signalling around shareholder remuneration (dividends, buybacks etc) and management credibility and commentary. In short some science (balance sheet), some art (reading primary company documentation) and a slug of psychology appraising the words and actions of management.
Although it is evident on the daily chart of Randgold Resources that this is a stock which is quite happy to turn on a dime, the current chart configuration where we have seen a break below the 200 day moving average at 4,688p does seem to be one where the bulls will have to struggle to escape the negative technical setup.
If there is one event that should fill investors with glee it is a spin-off. Here’s the theory: a big, complex company decides to allow part of their business to separately list which in turn allows investors to appraise and the market to value the now two separated businesses independently. And guess what? Sometimes 2+2 =5 and sometimes 2+2=3. In my experience it rarely leaves the combined market cap unchanged. This is because either the spin-off is an underappreciated diamond or it is a piece of relative rubbish that investors should run a mile from and dump in the first few weeks of spun-out ownership.
John Meyer of SP Angel this morning comments on Amur Minerals, Eurasia Mining, Randgold Resources and Mariana Resources as well as offering a detailed macro view on the news that is shaping global mining and the AIM mining pond.
I am not sure if we should all be thinking about the General Election today or not but hopefully I will be able to squeeze in some time to vote given the newsfest frenzy on shares I am interested in around the world. Last month at the epic UK Investor Show I mentioned four UK stocks to the assembled audience (as you can watch here). Three of them usefully gave interesting updates today.
John Meyer of SP Angel this morning comments on Tri-Star Resources, Thor Mining, Randgold Resources, Alecto Minerals, Horizonte Minerals and Anglo American as well as offering a detailed macro view on the news that is shaping global mining and the AIM mining pond.
A very pleasing set of numbers from Randgold Resources (RRS) earlier this week confirmed that it is clearly the best larger cap gold company in the world. The Q4/FY update reinforced its consistent achievement of the gold sector’s holy trinity of rising production/grade, all in cost control way under spot gold prices and a solid balance sheet (in its case now with net cash on it).
Amara Mining* (AMA) has announced an increase in total mineral resources at its Yaoure gold project in Côte d'Ivoire from 6.3 million ounces to 6.8 million and a 63% increase (to 4.4 million ounces) in the higher confidence ‘Indicated’ resource.
How many share tickers can you remember? Of the hundreds that are floating around my head one of my favourites used to be ‘EEEK’ which stood for the eastern / central European focused soft drinks beverage producer/distributor Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling on the Greek stock market. I have to say ‘used to be’ because in a rare display of austerity the ticker today is a truncated ‘EEE’ which is much less memorable.
Gold has been the despair of its fans ever since hitting $1,900 an ounce three years ago. Instead of soaring above $2,000 and on into the stratosphere, amid international political and economic turbulence, the perverse yellow metal has slithered back to below $1,180 an ounce, as the US economy and dollar have proved unexpectedly strong and oil has lately taken a spectacular tumble.
Goldstone Resources(GRL), the unloved West African gold explorer whose shares have fallen 98% in 10 years, is entering a new era, which long-suffering investors must hope will radically improve its prospects. Shareholders have approved a package of measures, including a £1.4 million investment by fellow AIM counter Stratex International (STI) and the replacement of Goldstone’s chairman Jonathan Best by Christopher Hall of Stratex, putting Stratex into the driving seat.
Thursday and the first part of Friday kind of went well for some of the shares I have discussed on these pages. Randgold Resources (RRS) proved again why it is really the only larger cap gold company to worry about. Rising production? Tick. Cash costs below US$700/ounce? Tick. Ungeared balance sheet? Tick. High reserve grade and exploration potential? Tick. It is good to see the shares back above the £40 level again – and I think they have much further to go. Gold shares are horribly out-of-favour but when you have a company with the above attributes and who only build and develop mines from the perspective of US$1000/ounce gold you have a buffer. Good news too that ebola has had no impact in the areas of Africa they are mining in. Buy any dip.
West African gold hopeful Aureus Mining (AUE) expects to have its flagship 900,000-oz. New Liberty project in Liberia producing gold in or shortly after March next year and is confident of announcing a new resource next month for Ndablama, 40 km away, its second project in the country’s Bea Mountain licence area. Liberia is at the centre of the deadly ebola epidemic, gold at $1,248.80c an ounce remains at present stubbornly out of investment fashion and Aureus’s shares have virtually halved from their 41.25p 12-month peak to 21.25p now, but David Reading, the company’s chief executive officer, strikes a determinedly upbeat note.
Well what a week and if you are a Rolls Royce(RR/) shareholder what an end to the week…but more on the perils of owning one of the favoured holdings of institutional professional fund managers in a minute.
A few weeks ago& I took my profits in SABMiller (SAB) on some warmed up bid talks. There is a price, to get back into the emerging markets beverage company with a particularly attractive position in Africa, but not yet.
I should have thought of the phrase myself but Christine Lagarde’s observation that the clear risk for the global economy is of an extended ‘new mediocre’ era fits with many of my observations about the world. Investment life, however, is not about extended pessimism and the most important observation has to be that it will mean individual investment opportunities – namely stock picking – become more important. Starting with the UK:
According to the excellent ShareProphets website search functionality it is over 140 days since I wrote a piece titled ‘Update on 8 share tips’. In the spirit of continued openness and accountability, how are these eight tips looking and what would be my view now?
The World’s number one mining analyst Roger bade of Whitman Howard has today suggested that Randgold Resources (RRS) could bid for Amara Mining (AMA) and quite happily pay double the current (16.5p) share price.