Medical matters are on my mind as I have the Norovirus. But it takes more than that to stop me writing about companies but naturally my mind turns to drugs. Well I was a young man in the sixties – the 1960s not the 1860s before you ask. Talking of ancient history, the market long ago abandoned the assumption that GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) would automatically build a pathway for shareholders to a starlight future of endless profits and earnings growth, by simply spending 15% of its sales revenue on R&D, and turning that into an approved blockbuster therapy every few years. In truth, costs rose and progress became more difficult – the return on R&D capital was not acceptable.
On January 10th IQE (IQE), the Wales based supplier of advanced semiconductor wafer products and services IQE announced a $75 million ($60 million on completion and $15 million payable on the third anniversary of completion) acquisition, a £16.5 million placing of new shares with institutional investors at 29p each and a 2012 trading statement. Having tipped the stock at a 28.75p on this very website on November 19th -I am feeling rather smug
FTSE-250 constituent Pace plc (PIC), a developer of technologies and products for PayTV and broadband, has today announced that, following a strong second half year performance, its “full year results are anticipated to be ahead of the board's previous guidance”. The shares have responded by trading approaching 5% higher at 202p, capitalising the company at £625 million. The following reviews the investment proposition here…
Yesterday Greggs (GRG), the leading bakery retailer in the UK with more than 1,670 retail outlets, released an update on trading for the Christmas and New Year period (5 weeks ended 5th January 2013) and for its 2012 financial year (52 weeks ended 29th December 2012). This included that the company anticipates that it “will report full year results broadly in line with expectations when we make our preliminary announcement on 13 March 2013”. However there were caveats and with concerns about the UK economy and consumer spending – particularly on the high street, the following is my take on the current outlook for this company…
Centamin (CEY), the London and Canada listed gold miner operating in Egypt, has announced record quarterly gold production of 85,543 ounces for the period closing December 31st 2012 – taking full year production to 262,958 ounces, a 30% increase on 2011 and above guidance of 250,000 ounces. The shares have responded by currently trading just over 5.5p higher at 49.75p, capitalising the company at just under £550 million. The company emphasises the numbers as “particularly pleasing given the challenges faced during the year” but the announcement also makes clear that challenges remain. The following details my current view…
Domino's Pizza (DOM), now a FTSE-250 constituent, has been a stellar recommendation from me historically during my 12 years at t1ps.com, but I am currently nervous about the UK economy and consumer spending outlook. Does that dim my faith?
AIM-listed blinkx plc (BLNX), which describes itself as “the world’s largest and most advanced video search engine” , has today announced a further partnership deal – this with KoldCast TV, an international television network of original entertainment programming.
AIM listed Funeral homes group Dignity (DTY) is one of those companies whose shares always look expensive, but then always seem to head higher. You always kick yourself for not buying the stock, after all we have an ageing population and so death ( like taxes) looks a sort of one way bet. As it happens, that is not the case. At a share price of £11.02 the company is now capitalised at £603 million. Is this justifiable?
Normally I would consider that a company that will be loss making unto, calendar 2014 but which at 493p trades on a 2014 PE of 103 would be a slam dunk sell. Wandisco (WAND) is just that company and it cannot be described as a tradition Benjamin Graham style value investment. But before Lucien Miers thinks about shorting the stock, I suggest that he reads on. This is not as simple as it sounds.
Ruspetro (RPO) has already served up a profits warning in 2013 and for its timing as much as its substance it is already in line to win an award for the biggest shock of the year. The shares closed Friday at 83.5p, valuing the firm at £278.4 million but given that the release went live at 6.30 PM the stock will be hit hard on Monday. At what point should you buy if at all?
Shares in AIM and Canada-listed Xcite Energy (XEL) hit 395p in January 2011 as it reported on a successful “transformational well” drill on its flagship Bentley oil field in the UK Northern North Sea, 160 kilometres east of the Shetland Isles. However, market disappointment at a 10th May 2011 reserves report on Bentley saw the shares fall from 316.5p to close at 110p just seven weeks later. They hit a low of 67.5p in July 2012 and currently trade at 92.75p – capitalising the company at approaching £270 million. The stock is a darling of the Bulletin Boards. But is it good value?
Because the yield is too low for a bank (in historic terms), Barclays Bank (BARC)shares are clearly viewed by the market as a ‘momentum’ stock; the elementary investment principle being, that because the shares are going up, buy some more?
On 20th December fully listed gold miner Centamin (CEY) announced that “following the recently-announced export of gold and resumption of fuel supply, operations have now resumed at Sukari.” The market read this as meaning that output and cashflow generation was now back on track. The shares have thus rallied to 39.3p. But this morning, top broker Fox Davies has published a research report stating “We also understand that gold exports have again been suspended.” Well have they? A RNS statement from Centamin is called for pretty urgently. This is a critical matter but the answer does not matter but the episode reminds us of why the shares are a sell.
Suddenly the price of Iron ore has picked up, spurred by a recovery in Chinese Demand. Iron ore stocks have responded with a number showing sharp gains in the past month. Among the winners is Anglesey Mining (AYM) but also Bellzone (BZM) which has assisted its cause with news on both of its projects in the West African country of Guinea. The Bellzone share price has pushed ahead by 3p to 16p over the past month valuing the company at £117 million but some brokers reckon that it could still double from mere. There is a bear case as well as a bull case.
I promised you something for everyone in my 7 tips of the year 2013 and so I now bring you a profitable, cash generative gold producer with exploration upside. As a relatively low cost producer it will keep throwing off cash if the gold price does noting or even falls. At the current gold price it looks very cheap but if, as I expect, gold moves ahead sharply it is very cheap indeed. My sixth tip of the year 2013 is Archipelago Resources (AR.) which, at 60p, is capitalised at £345 million. This is a stock where at $2000 gold you will double your money within a year.
I promised you something for everyone in my 7 tips of the year 2013 and so I now bring you a profitable, very cash generative growth stock with strong defensive qualities and great ( largely contracted) earnings visibility which is very much a growth play. It is run by a bird who is the smartest cookie in tech and has a great track record over many years and although the shares may look highly rated they, in my opinion offer 54% upside on a one year view.
In the vein of providing something for everybody, my second tip of the year is a gold company, AIM listed Kryso Resources (KYS) at 32p. Modestly, I should point out that I first recommended this stock at 13.25p on t1ps.com (my former website for 12 years before I started my new Nifty Fifty venture) in 2007 and so those who took that advice are already well ahead. But the best is yet to come. Kryso is not yet a producer but by next Christmas it will be
Over the next seven days I shall serve up seven tips for 2013. There should be something for everyone. In assembling this magnificent seven I start with company fundamentals and price. But I also take into account my macro-economic assumptions for the next 12 months. And, I am sorry to say, that I am not terribly cheery. I do not see UK GDP growing rapidly. Credit will be hard to obtain and consumer spending will not be strong. As such there is some merit in starting with a solid defensive play and that brings me to fully listed S&U (SUS) at a share price of 915.25p.
I have always been a fan of Greggs (GRG) the UK’s largest retailer of sausage rolls, puff pastries and all the other sort of comfort food that helped me to become a diabetic. The company has always had net cash, benefitted from operational gearing and delivered solid year on year earnings increases. But in 2012 things appeared to start to go slightly awry and the share price has fallen from 550p at the start of the year to 458p. As recently as 7th November I foreasaw a bounce ( at 470p) but I have been reviewing my assumptions about UK consumer behaviour. As such I apologise for that bad call, a volte face is on the way.I would like to buy this stock as fundamentally it is a good business serving six million Britons each week. But ....
I have tipped fully listed ( and JSE listed) Aquarius Platinum (AQP) three times in my life: once at Red Hot Penny Shares and twice at t1ps.com. Each time we have sold and booked handsome gains but the past 12 months have seen the company have to weather a series of plagues reminiscent of a biblical torment.
Taking readers suggestions for improvements, we've made it much easier to subscribe to your favourite one-stop source for breaking news and expert analysis on AIM and LSE listed shares. £5.99 pcm gets you access, that works out at sub 2p (inc VAT) per article. Think how much our big calls on the AIM frauds have saved you and hot tips like IQE have made you. Its a nil brainer....it's madness not to sign up.
These are the genuine reviews on AllAgents.co.uk that Purplebricks (PURP) has attempted to ensure that you do not see by sending threatening lawyers letters as we exposed yesterday. As you can see they are dynamite and show quite clearly a flawed business model which sees customer after customer ripped off. Word of that is spreading which is why this company will NEVER make a profit and will sooner or later run out of money and go bust. The shares are a sell at 380p - target price 0p. Now read on and wonder why folks like Neil "nomates" Woodford and Roger Lawson want to own these shares... PS If Purplebricks wants to threaten me to remove these posts I will take great pleasure in seeing the bitchez in Court.
Earlier I revealed how the UK's largest independent reviewer of Estate Agents had blocked Purplebricks (PURP) after it threatened legal action if Allagents.co.uk continued to carry reviews of its shoddy services which were anything other than flattering - 71 (half) of the reviews were bad and Purplebricks demanded they be removed. Now Allagents has upped the ante with a formal statement which reads:
With 300,000 reviews, AllAgents.co.uk is the UK's largest independent site for independent reviews of Estate Agents by Customers. It has just taken the unprecedented step of not allowing Purplebricks reviews because the AIM listed company was trying to "game" the system by using fascist lawyers letters. That tactic has now backfired in a spectacular fashion.
A recent statement by MySquar (MYSQ)confuses genocide and mass rape with "civil unrest". This is obscene and shows that the company is morally bankrupt. Its CEO Eric Schaer will see his soul burn in hell for this and it makes me unspeakably angry. The company is a worthless piece of crap but promoting that is not now Eric's biggest sin. All is explained in this podcast. I also cover China New Energy (CNEL), Ryanair (RYA) - see this link - Petro Matad (MATD), FastForward (FFWD) and, in some detail, Paternoster Resources (PRS).
Those seeking to oust the board at Stratex (STI) have not been playing with a straight bat as an RNS late yesterday made clear. They are vermin who should be sent packing. Ditto Professor Conroy of Conroy Gold & Natural Resources (CGNR). I have news on his latest courtroom scrape in Dublin and also on the Afren (AFR) whistleblower to whom I make a generous offer. I am warming to Blur (BLUR) after today's placing and am almost tempted to nibble now that ghastly Phil Letts and his even more ghastly Mrs have gone. There is a detailed analysis of interims from Watchstone (WTG) - Quindell as was. Do not get suckered by that headline cash number. It is not real and the shares are a sell. Finally there is an update on the African Potash (AFPO) and Paragon Diamonds (PRG) litigation.
Hello, Share Cavaliers. It’s rare that I keep returning to shares I’ve commended to you. But the case of IQE (IQE) is so intriguing and knife-edge that I think it might be worth keeping under review. As I write the share is up another 6%. It has been seesawing up and down, rather alarmingly, for a few weeks now. Uncle Tom had a go at my support for this stock in a recent bearcast. He argued that the shares are hopelessly over-valued and to take profits might be the more prudent course.
Let us be clear: Purplebricks (PURP) is not a fraud but today's publication of customer reviews - that Purplebricks is desperate for you not to see - is damning and suggests a business model that is based on taking £1000 from large numbers of "customers" who get nothing in return. That is not sustainable and is why the shares are worth 0p. The Sam Antar reference is about how Purplebricks responds and that, in turn, will determine the speed of its collapse. That it will collapse is a given.
This was written before TODAY's SHOCKING EXPOSE. Despite falling 25% from its August high Purplebricks (PURP) has been a spectacular investment for practically everybody involved in its brief four-year history.
Ahead of a presentation in London, Optibiotix (OPTI) issued what you might term a "cleansing statement" allowing boss Steve O'Hara to talk freely. And the news is all good. Let's start with Slimbiome.
An eagle eyed reader flags up another matter relating to Neil "nomates" Woodford's next disaster, that is to say Purplebricks (PURP) which, in light of the latest shocking revelations today, is a zero in waiting as I explained HERE.
With all the “quality” companies waiting until the last possible moment at the end of next week to release their results, I thought I’d do a series of previews this week on some of my favourites starting with the “warrant exercise machine”, EVR Holdings (EVRH) where the only real unknown is what the latest excuse will be for the delayed launch of the app.
This week's Bulletin Board Moron contest is sponsored by Nyota Minerals, a company that has more lives than all of our reader's cats.
I’m expecting URU Metals (URU) to issue its end of year results on the last possible day on 29 September, next Friday week, and am also expecting a sleight of hand masterpiece from the CEO, John Zorbas, who loves to distract from the real issue here, namely an uneconomic mine. Here’s a contrast of what I would like to see in the results and what I expect to see.
Canadian Overseas Petroleum (COPL) is a company that I have followed for a while now and recently I have noticed it getting a fair bit of attention again – certainly as much as we’ve seen since the failed drill in Liberia back in late 2016.
A couple of market rules spring to mind today. Firstly: If a company’s management tells you that the equity is worthless you had better believe them.
Veteran miner Cameron McCrae thinks the recent run-up in the copper price has been long overdue. He thinks the copper price will go higher and stay there for longer and that demand will continue to be robust. The demand-supply balance is finely tuned, and the sector has been spoiled for some years with no supply disruptions. He says there is unpredictability with mining in Indonesia right now.
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