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Latest News

Bearcast
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Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - Diversified Gas cannot respond - is it the best short on AIM?

I start with a few reflections on D day from my own family history. Then I look at Neil Woodford and what needs to happen.Then at unfolding events at Diversified Gas & Oil (DGOC) which make it, arguably, the most compelling short on AIM. Do folks understand the scale of what is going on here? Then I cover Motif Bio (MTFB), Cabot Energy (CAB)  and finally Blue Jay (JAY) another truly compelling short.

Collapsing-Reactor
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Woodford Income Focus – how long until this is suspended too as the contagion spreads?

The smaller unit trust run by Neil Woodford, the Income Focus Fund (IFF), has had a torrid time ever since it was launched and trades way below the launch price of the accumulation units. But with Neil Woodford now in the headlines for gating his flagship equity income fund and even his staunchest supporter – Hargreaves Lansdown – suggesting that investors consider their position in IFF, much as predicted on this fine website, it seems that redemptions are running at stampede levels. How long can Neil Woodford survive this before he has to gate IFF too?

JOUL
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Joules utters that rare retail profit jewel: 'upper end of analysts' expectations'!

I asked the question back in December 'is Joules (JOUL) a retail jewel?' – and, based on the last six months, and despite everything going on in the general retail space and on the High Street, the answer has to be 'yes'...

Curse_Of_ShareProphets
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How soon will Woodford Investment management go bust?

In short it all depends on the greed of Neil Woodford himself. Let me explain.

DISH
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Big Dish – why is this not slam dunk market abuse? Hung by its own words as placing announced

I like the chap behind Big Dish (DISH) so it pains me to say this but as it announces a placing today can it please not tell me why it has not done an Elon Musk “funding secured” grotesque act of market abuse? Let me explain:

I3E
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Great news for I3 Energy – & I will continue to hold my shares

I3 Energy (I3E) has had a bit of a bumpy ride of late, largely thanks to some untrue rumours which were being spread by certain individuals on social media, but the uncertainty has now been resolved following the latest news from the company...

Dead-Donkey
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BREAKING: Morningstar downgrades Woodford’s Suspended Flagship Equity Income Fund again, to Negative

Can Neil Woodford’s day be worse than yesterday? Well it is only 7.30am and already Morningstar has again downgraded his Equity Income Fund to Negative – its lowest rating. With investors already lobster-potted “to protect investors in the fund” this is yet more bad news for them.

SEE

Seeing Machines – “Senior Leadership Transition”. So orderly then?

“Senior Leadership Transition” announcement from computer vision technology company Seeing Machines (SEE). So orderly then? Announced intra-day at 1:03pm. Hmmm…

GPOR

Will the London Commercial Property Market Hold Up? This FTSE-250 Giant Hopes So

Hello, Share Fans. You may know that I’m a fan of property companies, or at least of their mid-term prospects. But that is mainly for housing, where supply still has problems competing with demand. However, office and shop properties are not sectors that thrill me. Which brings me to Great Portland Estates (GPOR). I wish the company well, but foresee possible headwinds in the office and retail rental game...

Dead-Donkey
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A Dog Day for Neil Woodford - how long before Woodford Investment Management is toast?

If Monday’s events which saw Kent County Council ask for its money back, which forced the suspension of Neil Woodford’s Equity Income Fund was not bad enough, he has just learnt that St James’ Place has sacked him (oops, there goes a £3.5 billion mandate). Oh, and his best mates over at Hargreaves Lansdown have issued a statement about Woodford’s Income Focus Fund….

Bearcast
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Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Hey dumbfuck clients of Cenkos give me $225m and I'll offer you a 10% yield

In today's bearcast I start with a range of matters relating to Neil Woodford including brokers lifting our research, Purplebricks (PURP), Provident Financial (PFG) and Non-Standard Finance (NSF). And I make Neil a generous offer on Proton Partners (PPI). Then I look at Diversified Gas & Oil (DGOC) and the dumb fuck clients of Cenkos (CNKS). Finally a brief look at Ironveld (IRON) and at the Bluejay (JAY) hound. Postcript: Cynical Bear points out that today's TRI shows Woody is in fact selling Purplebricks in the market as well. Timber!

KYGA
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70 Page Dossier from the Dark Destroyer Matt Earl takes apart Kerry Group

Shadowfall, the company run by bear raider Matt Earl, the "Dark Destroyer" has today published a 70 page dossier on 18 billion euro capitalised Kerry Group (KYGA). It is a pretty devestating analysis. The report can be accessed in full below.

WPCT
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An Open Letter to Susan Searle at WPCT No 2 – Neil Woodford must be fired now to save our company

Susan Searle, the fragrant chairwoman of Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT), where I am a loyal owner of 10 shares, has yet to respond to my polite letter demanding she suspend the shares, fire Neil Woodford and undertake a strategic review. But events now force me to write again in light of Woodford’s incoherent video of earlier.  That suggests WPCT now faces a full blown crisis. The letter follows:

K3C

K3 Capital – “very pleased” at the upper end of prior guidance… but what was that guidance again?...

Business and company sales group K3 Capital (K3C) has updated commencing, “The board is very pleased to report that adjusted EBITDA is expected to be at the upper end of the market guidance provided in the recent trading update on 5 April 2019”. Hmmm – adjusted EBITDA and why not remind of what that prior ‘market guidance’ was?...

PFG
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Provident Financial – failure squared from man of the moment Neil Woodford

A terse announcement today from Provident Financial (PFG) hides a much bigger story covering corporate failure and this website's current great focus: Mr Neil Woodford. And yes, his recent failures have led - in a roundabout way - to another failure. Failure squared!

EQT
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Eqtec is drowning in debt - will it ever issue an update with any real substance?

Regular readers of Share Prophets will know that I’m not exactly a fan of Eqtec (EQT) and have been far from convinced by all the very vague news releases coming from the company, and that opinion certainly hasn’t changed as it seems to provide even less these days by way of actual exact details.

Collapsing-Reactor
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Shocking New Neil Woodford video: stumbling, incoherent, in parts misleading

Neil Woodford has released a short video aimed at reassuring investors in his now suspended Equity Income Fund. It will have the opposite effect. It is stumbling, incoherent, in parts misleading and frankly Neil looks like an ill man who is under mammoth stress. I can see why. 

DGOC
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Diversified Gas & Oil Reported to FRC – IFRS 3 why its accounts are a joke and need mammoth restatement

Yesterday I highlighted the numerous issues which make Diversified  Gas & Oil (DCOG) the most overvalued oil stock on AIM.  The crux of the issue is that its freported profits since IPO have been generated almost entirely from aggressive accounting as opposed to producing hydrocarbons. I believe its accounts breach IFRS 3 and must therefore be completely restated which will wipe out nearly all of its retained profits. Let me explain. 

Timebomb

Dear Kent County Council…….

I read in the press that you are very disappointed that Neil Woodford didn’t give you a heads up that his flagship Equity Income Fund was so close to having to gate his find to prevent further redemptions – especially as you were a large holder. You clearly don’t understand how the system works, for taking action on inside information like that would be a criminal offence. There is a way you could have known, though.

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