In this penultimate podcast of 2014, I look at Sefton Resources, Peter Landau, Range Resources, Black Mountain Resources, Patisserie and especially Igas and its utterly disgraced CEO Andrew Piggy Austin for whom the questions mount.
Stellar Diamonds (STEL) may have lost 94% of its stockmarket value since floating on AIM in 2007 and its may operate in Guinea and Sierra Leone, the West African states most beset by the ebola virus. But the Romanian-backed company and Karl Smithson, its chief executive officer, have been making determinedly bullish noises over the Christmas period, fired by encouraging trial mining and bulk sampling results and significant resource increases.
Some of you may regard this as boring. There is after all, ALMOST, nothing written below that I have not written before. But I promised my top 5 shorts as part of my 10 tips of the year and Quindell (QPP) is my top short. Quite simply these shares are worthless. And so selling at 42p or whatever you can get is a sure fire 100% win. This is a “niller” at so many levels. Where do we start?
I tipped this stock as a sell last year based on fundamental and technical factors. After an uneventful start to the year 2014, the stock rallied during the summer and peaked at 379p on 28 July.
I first covered Just Eat (JE.) at the start of December. Three of the company’s founding investors had just sold £139million worth of their holdings, through a discounted placement. This looked like a not so tacit admission that they saw limited further upside for the stock and were very keen to reduce their exposure.
Just a short BearCast Special on the situation in Greece with another election now looming in late January. What does it mean, who will win, will it mean the beginning of the end of the Euro and gow does it affect us? From a man who lives in Greece for a good part of the year and is an ardent Hellenophile if a profound Eurosceptic a few thoughts.
A year ago I tipped Randgold Resources (RRS) as my ‘FTSE-100 tip of the year’ and despite the volatility in the underlying gold price and desperate performance of the average gold miner the tip has done well and has nicely outperformed the UK’s leading share index.
In my last piece on IGas HERE I described in detail how IGas (IGAS) breached the ‘Scheme Implementation Agreement’ (SIA) which governed the conduct of the all-paper deal in which IGas took over Aussie-listed Dart Energy.
Even on a day with no news there is plenty to say. I start with President Petroleum in this podcast but then move on to look at EMED and Gulfsands Petroleum where there are similarities in terms of how failing management seeks to defend themselves from attack. And then, in detail onto Quindell where the silence is ominous re both Mr Fielding and also PWC where I hear that an interim report has been presented.
Hello Share Twiddlers. When I first bought into United Utilities (UU.) energy and water prices were uncontrolled and rising. Therefore, this electricity and water supplier for the North West of England seemed to be a double golden egg – it was making a profits and, being an arch-defensive share, seemed fairly safe.
Steve Moore and I have been cautious on shares and especially AIM shares for a year. We have not touched some sectors like oil at all. And we have been vindicated. We are value investors and thus caution is the name of the game. The skills we use in detecting frauds like Quindell are the same skills we use in unearthing value buys. But it is Christmas and we have a new share tip underway. Like the Tailor of Gloucester we are still hard at work on it as the big day approaches.
Nigel Somerville, the Deputy Sheriff of AIM, has been far too kind to IGas Energy (IGAS) CEO Andrew Austin. In a devastating series of revelations, Nigel exposed three material breaches by Mr Austin of IGas’ Scheme Implementation Agreement (SIA), which governed the takeover of Dart Energy. Any one of these breaches could have been grounds for termination of the takeover, but Nigel stopped short of saying one thing. He didn’t call Mr Austin a goddamned liar.
It is with a deep sense of déjà vu that I suggest my first Trading Theme for 2015. I am back to the gold miners. As one of my picks for 2014, this sector performed reasonably well in the first half of the year, only to finish in miserable disappointment by the end. There were excellent trading opportunities along the way, but gold’s bear market ultimately prevailed. As of writing, gold mining shares are towards the bottom of their annual lows and the long-awaited recovery proves as elusive as ever. Although I am understandably a little shy in calling the bottom of the market in the price of gold, the recent weakness looks like a decent buying opportunity and I’ve found a supercharged play for the bold of heart.
As I noted in my ten macro themes for 2015 article (HERE) the analysis that Steve Moore and I serve up is bottom up – that is to say company specific – not so much macro driven. But the odd macro think session establishes useful tramlines for the investment process. My first, second and third share tips for 2015 are already live and so onto Number 4.
I tipped BP (BP.) last year at 484p on the basis that the shares looked good value and without the foresight of knowing that the price of crude oil would fall so far and so fast, particularly given the recovery of the US economy and the eternal problems of the Middle East. Not a good call in hindsight.
What first attracted me to HSBC (HSBA) as a tip of the year? The fact that I knew how cold and ruthless it could be. I have a certain amount of ‘inside information’ on this. When you look at HSBC... there is often something quite clinical about it. My sister has a bank account with HSBC... you would be hard pressed to easily find that it pays no interest at all. “This account pays no credit interest” it says in the small print. However, if she went overdrawn she’d be charged around 18% every year.
Diamonds seem to have escaped the worst of the carnage that has afflicted other commodities, from gold to iron ore and participants in the sector, perhaps unsurprisingly, claim to see a widening of interest in the dazzling gemstones, from China to the Middle East, with a new emphasis on their potential merits as investments as well as adornments. One such enthusiast is Philip Manduca, former hedge fund pioneer, brother of the head of the Prudential insurance giant and chairman of AIM-quoted Paragon Diamonds (PRG).
If you look more closely at a lot of AIM companies it is hard to see why they are so popular with private investors. So far PowerHouse Energy (PHE) would seem to fit into that category, as despite being popular on the bulletin boards, it has yet to actually achieve much of what has previously been promised or in the expected timescales.
Hello Share Switchers. I saw an alarming sight in Swansea on a freezing wet Boxing Day night.
If my first idea for 2015 of Scancell (SCLP) which you can read HERE seemed high risk then this one will look – at first glance – off the scale. But there is method in my madness. Core VCT (CR3) is an arbitrage buy with what looks to be limited downside. Here is why.
Following complaints from shamed share ramper Roger Lawson, ADVFN has insisted on a raft of new editorial controls on OneFreeShareTip.com. I did not re-start my life five years ago to be told what I could or could not write. I said no and ADVFN boss Clem Chambers has just said that the website will be shut down. So...our hand is forced ... Welcome to fivefreesharetips.com - we hope you join NOW HERE.
As seen here, Telit's (TCM) distributers are a, um, diverse lot, including a distributer in Vietnam that appears to be a scooter courier firm. Which is nice, and thank you for sponsoring this week's Bulletin Board Moron search.
The failure of the LSE to insist that hapless Nomad FinnCap forces Telit (TCM) to bring in a firm like KPMG to conduct a full forensic review will hurt it even more when this company goes tits up as I noted in a letter to Stock Exchange boss Donald Brydon earlier today HERE. Two sources tell me that the FBI may have bad news for the Boston fraudster Oozi Cats and his Mrs as I explain in this podcast. But the meat of the podcast is explaining why Telit will go tits up and why that could be within six weeks. Enjoy.
You may remember that at the last AGM of the London Stock Exchange (LSE) its chairman,, Donald Brydon CBE, 'fessed up to being a ShareProphets reader and as we chatted afterwards he came over as a thoroughly decent man. But he has, yet again, been failed by his minions in their handling of the biggest AIM fraud of the year, so far, Telit (TCM). Lowly gofers such as the head of AIM Regulation, the fake Sheriff Mr Marcus Stuttad, have allowed Telit to avoid any independent scrutiny of its accounts & business practices despite clear evidence of fraud. That has to change and maybe Brydon will push for that. I have sent him a letter.
If you read the bent, freebie is our middle name, personal financie columnists in the deadwood press, fund manager Neil Woodford walks on water. I disagree and have noted before, that, maybe, after three dismal years, others are starting to see the light. But, with assistance from a leading broker, how about we have a real look at the Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT) but also at the sort of dogs Neil ifalls in love with.
VSA is house broker to Obtala (OBT) so is not impartial. Neither am I as we own a small number of shares following a Dragon's Den pitch as the 2017 UK Investor Show. But the price target suggests real upside and VSA's research team is well regarded and since we happily published an uber-negative piece from Evil Banksta the other day, this offers some balance. VSA has tweaked its forecasts
You may remember that ShareProphets poster Drunken Sailor and I were co-defendants in a libel case a couple of years ago ( which we won). Mr sailor is not a drunk and he is a great sleuth when he wants to be. My pressing concerns about uber ramped Bushveld Minerals (BMN) are its balance sheet, but DS has unearthed another major issue which, for some reason, Bushveld has not covered in an RNS. Perhaps it might do so now? Drunken's post merits a wider audience:
Like Richard Poulden, CEO of PCG Entertainment (PCGE), I have a bit of time for Brian Kinane at Riverfort. As someone who believes in transparency and clear communication, my view is that Brian is trying to bring some of that to the world of small cap funding, particularly where the dreaded phrase “ death spiral” is concerned and there’s a few points here to be applauded. It still doesn’t prevent the obvious question being aimed at Mr Poulden though – WHY RAISE MORE FUNDS NOW?
Some folks think that handing out share options to senior staff is a cost free exercise and b) benefits all shareholders as it incentivizes the board and also aligns their interests with those of stockholders. Bollocks on all counts.
Following the postponement of a significant contract announced at the end of last month, SRT Marine Systems (SRT) has now announced an “AIS Aids to Navigation Contract”, including that “the order is for the world's biggest single deployment of AIS AtoN”. The world's biggest hey, sounds impressive!…
Having reached more than 75p in May, shares in information management technology and services company Idox (IDOX) declined below 60p early last month before recovering above 65p - then declining towards 60p again. The company is now “pleased to announce that it has acquired… Halarose, a supplier of electoral back office software and services to UK local authorities, for £5.0 million, comprising £3.5 million in cash and £1.5 million in shares” (at 61.5p)…
Hello Share Grafters. The congestion in most of our airports will give you the heads-up that air travel is booming. It will continue to do so, especially as more people from developing countries become middle class. But you may still be wary of big airlines.
After a stack of RNSs earlier this year, it has all gone quiet at AIM-listed Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO) since the announcement of the termination of the Bracknor death-spiral. How’s the cash position?
Drilling services company Capital Drilling (CAPD) has announced results for the first half of 2017, including that an initial uplift in activity has broadened with an improving outlook in industrial metals and capital markets activities support. Why then are the shares further lower, below 40p, having been above 60p earlier this year?...
From the FCA's spreadsheet of short positions required to be disclosed to it, the following shows the shorted AIM shares with positions from 2016 and thus far in 2017 (by net short position %) - and if this position has increased (red), reduced (green) or remained unchanged (black) since last week...
Previously writing on System1 Group (SYS1), then named BrainJuicer Group, as the shares slid below 700p I concluded there still, despite self-admitted “limited revenue visibility”, a clear lack of a Benjamin Graham ‘margin of safety’ (”for absorbing the effect of miscalculations or worse than average luck” e.g. an earnings miss or negative change in stock market sentiment) and I thus continued to avoid. The shares have though recently been above 800p… until a “Trading Update” announcement today…
In the piss poor results for the six months to 30 June 2017, Telit (TCM) highlighted that it had purchased GainSpan and provided the following rather limited commentary on its contribution to the interim results:
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