In today's podcast I refer to the excellent Black Swan 2015 review by Richard Poulden which you should all read. I cover the issue of how low the oil price could go but also what we as investors should assume that it will be. I touch on IGAS and Northern Petroleum (both shorts). And the I look at the issue of what constitutes market abuse in the Bulletin Board Moron community
OK so today I’ll give you my thoughts on other areas – so Airlines and Tour Operators, which Are my hobby sectors, and also a little bit on Energy as that is also an area we are looking to get more involved in and Agri
Action Hotels (AHCG) has announced the completion of two new hotels in the Middle East and updated that it “is in discussions in relation to a number of opportunities across the Middle East”.
Graphite production and exploration in Madagascar-focused, StratMin (STGR) has updated on performance in a holiday-shortened December and emphasised that its “confidence at the operational level has grown significantly over the last few months”.
Investment Case: Provider of energy efficiency products and services to homeowners in the UK, entu (UK) plc (ENTU) listed on AIM at 100p per share on 30th October. However, unlike most IPO’s, the prospective ratings – a price/earnings multiple of 8.4x and forward dividend yield of 8% – suggested this one potentially attractive. This has been reinforced by a trading update earlier this month noting that the company “has seen robust trading in the year across all its divisions” and that it is seeing a positive combination of increasing brand awareness and increasing public awareness of the economic and environmental benefits of energy efficient home improvements. Still though, at a current 107p offer price – only a little above the IPO price – the shares are a buy.
Every time I look at LGO Energy (LGO) I wonder if I am missing something in terms of its value – currently £94 million. To me it currently looks incredibly expensive when compared to other oil producers, some of whom are at a far more advanced stage and with an awful lot more in the way of both production and reserves.
As predicted just days ago, I see that the non-executive directors at the squalid China Fraud Naibu (NBU), “experienced” accountant Giles Elliot and “experienced” lawyer David Thomas have extracted their heads from their arses and had the shares suspended.
In a fair world shares in companies would steadfastly ascend if their earnings improved year after year. But some lucky firms attract more investment than their profit-and-loss accounts deserve, because of the sort of things they make or services they provide. These fortunates may be worth investing in because of their 'hidden assets'. As we'll see, some of their attractions wouldn't be at all alluring if we lived in a sane world.
ShareProphets Press' first book of 2015 is by Tom Winnifrith, The Man who exposed the fraud at Quindell. In it, Winnifrith demonstrates the forensic accounting techniques that he uses to expose the secrets that companies are trying to hide. No investor should be without it. The first 100 people to receive the book will be offered a free ticket to the 2015 UK Investor Show on April 18. Don't delay - this will go fast.
In this short end of week podcast I look at the issue of sub critical mass companies on the AIM casino starting with Hunter Resources but en passant looking again at the POS enterprises that are Tern and Touchstone Gold. I look at housebuilders, Qihang Equiment and the three remaining Fuijian Norfolks: Camkids, China Chaintek and Jiasen
West Africa-focused gold play Amara Mining (AMA) has hoisted the formal indicated mineral resource at its Yaoure project in Cote d’Ivoire 63% to 4.4 million oz. at a low grade of 1.29 grammes of gold per tonne of ore. Citing another 2.4 million oz. there with gold at 1.19 grammes a tonne in the more tentative inferred resource category, the AIM-quoted company, which began life as Cluff Gold, says this confirms Yaoure as the largest gold development project in the region and indicates it expects a pre-feasibility study to be completed in March.
Specialist IT recruitment group, InterQuest (ITQ) has updated that it expects a “slightly ahead of consensus” outturn for 2014 and that it considers it has “a strong and sustainable platform for continued growth in 2015”.
I suggested here some time ago, that the Tesco (TSCO) dividend payout looked vulnerable, so news that the company will not be paying a final dividend is not surprising. Last year to February 28 2014, the company reported £2.8 billion of operating cash, most of which went in to capital expenditure (£2.88 billion) leaving the annual dividend cost uncovered by operating cash. So the decision to cancel the final dividend and reduce annual expenditure to an annual amount of £1 billion by next year looks logical and rational – and thus I would of thought, encouraging to markets and potential investors.
Really just a few matters on the agenda in this special prompted by the suspension of shares in Naibu (NBU) today. I have been calling this out as a fraud for a year. I win. I look at the read across to China Chaintek, Camkids and Jiasen, to what it says about ZAI Corporate Finance and its other clients and what it says about any other stock I call out as a fraud. I look at Quindell, rumours about a new chairman, PWC and the fact that it too is a fraud. I also have more to say on the matter of free speech.
Tony Manini, the Australian mining entrepreneur who has become chief executive of Indonesia-focused Kalimantan Gold (KLG), says he intends to take the volatile AIM-quoted company’s 622 million-lb. Beruang Kanan copper project into production at an annual rate of 20,000 tonnes within two and a half years before taking another copper venture, Kalimantan’s newly-acquired Beutong project in Sumatra, to the stage where it can deliver 80,000 tonnes of copper a year.
As Tesco (TSCO) shareholders celebrate the return of a share price that begins with a ‘2’ what should we think of the turnaround plan rolled out by the company’s newish CEO Dave Lewis?
Today is the last day that Gulfsands Petroleum’s (GPX) shareholders can submit their votes for next Tuesday’s crucial general meeting. It is no exaggeration to say that their investments depend on it.
Hello Share Swizzlers. In the new year, shares took an alarming lurch into the red abyss. Did this bother me? Not a bit.
Yesterday 12 journalists were murdered by those who deny free speech. Today on the LSE asylum others who do not believe in free speech are at work. They may not be murderers but they are no less despicable. I start with that matter and Quindell and move on to cover Kenmare, Global Energy Developments, Tern, Igas, Sainsbury and Tesco, Touchstone Gold and Northwest Investment Group.
I am really surprised at the number of commentators and ordinary shareholders, who view the current valuation of oil stocks as a God-given buying opportunity. As I’ve written before, all the evidence suggests we are in the early phases of an aggressive global price war. Saudi Arabia (and for that read OPEC) appears determined to crush the US “fracking boom”, through a sustained campaign of price suppression. Times are almost certainly going to get a lot tougher before they improve. Any talk of farm-outs or a flurry of deal making seems greatly misplaced. This morning, Global Energy Development (GED) released an announcement, far more in keeping with the times.
Following complaints from shamed share ramper Roger Lawson, ADVFN has insisted on a raft of new editorial controls on OneFreeShareTip.com. I did not re-start my life five years ago to be told what I could or could not write. I said no and ADVFN boss Clem Chambers has just said that the website will be shut down. So...our hand is forced ... Welcome to fivefreesharetips.com - we hope you join NOW HERE.
As seen here, Telit's (TCM) distributers are a, um, diverse lot, including a distributer in Vietnam that appears to be a scooter courier firm. Which is nice, and thank you for sponsoring this week's Bulletin Board Moron search.
The failure of the LSE to insist that hapless Nomad FinnCap forces Telit (TCM) to bring in a firm like KPMG to conduct a full forensic review will hurt it even more when this company goes tits up as I noted in a letter to Stock Exchange boss Donald Brydon earlier today HERE. Two sources tell me that the FBI may have bad news for the Boston fraudster Oozi Cats and his Mrs as I explain in this podcast. But the meat of the podcast is explaining why Telit will go tits up and why that could be within six weeks. Enjoy.
You may remember that at the last AGM of the London Stock Exchange (LSE) its chairman,, Donald Brydon CBE, 'fessed up to being a ShareProphets reader and as we chatted afterwards he came over as a thoroughly decent man. But he has, yet again, been failed by his minions in their handling of the biggest AIM fraud of the year, so far, Telit (TCM). Lowly gofers such as the head of AIM Regulation, the fake Sheriff Mr Marcus Stuttad, have allowed Telit to avoid any independent scrutiny of its accounts & business practices despite clear evidence of fraud. That has to change and maybe Brydon will push for that. I have sent him a letter.
If you read the bent, freebie is our middle name, personal financie columnists in the deadwood press, fund manager Neil Woodford walks on water. I disagree and have noted before, that, maybe, after three dismal years, others are starting to see the light. But, with assistance from a leading broker, how about we have a real look at the Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT) but also at the sort of dogs Neil ifalls in love with.
VSA is house broker to Obtala (OBT) so is not impartial. Neither am I as we own a small number of shares following a Dragon's Den pitch as the 2017 UK Investor Show. But the price target suggests real upside and VSA's research team is well regarded and since we happily published an uber-negative piece from Evil Banksta the other day, this offers some balance. VSA has tweaked its forecasts
You may remember that ShareProphets poster Drunken Sailor and I were co-defendants in a libel case a couple of years ago ( which we won). Mr sailor is not a drunk and he is a great sleuth when he wants to be. My pressing concerns about uber ramped Bushveld Minerals (BMN) are its balance sheet, but DS has unearthed another major issue which, for some reason, Bushveld has not covered in an RNS. Perhaps it might do so now? Drunken's post merits a wider audience:
Like Richard Poulden, CEO of PCG Entertainment (PCGE), I have a bit of time for Brian Kinane at Riverfort. As someone who believes in transparency and clear communication, my view is that Brian is trying to bring some of that to the world of small cap funding, particularly where the dreaded phrase “ death spiral” is concerned and there’s a few points here to be applauded. It still doesn’t prevent the obvious question being aimed at Mr Poulden though – WHY RAISE MORE FUNDS NOW?
Some folks think that handing out share options to senior staff is a cost free exercise and b) benefits all shareholders as it incentivizes the board and also aligns their interests with those of stockholders. Bollocks on all counts.
Following the postponement of a significant contract announced at the end of last month, SRT Marine Systems (SRT) has now announced an “AIS Aids to Navigation Contract”, including that “the order is for the world's biggest single deployment of AIS AtoN”. The world's biggest hey, sounds impressive!…
Having reached more than 75p in May, shares in information management technology and services company Idox (IDOX) declined below 60p early last month before recovering above 65p - then declining towards 60p again. The company is now “pleased to announce that it has acquired… Halarose, a supplier of electoral back office software and services to UK local authorities, for £5.0 million, comprising £3.5 million in cash and £1.5 million in shares” (at 61.5p)…
Hello Share Grafters. The congestion in most of our airports will give you the heads-up that air travel is booming. It will continue to do so, especially as more people from developing countries become middle class. But you may still be wary of big airlines.
After a stack of RNSs earlier this year, it has all gone quiet at AIM-listed Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO) since the announcement of the termination of the Bracknor death-spiral. How’s the cash position?
Drilling services company Capital Drilling (CAPD) has announced results for the first half of 2017, including that an initial uplift in activity has broadened with an improving outlook in industrial metals and capital markets activities support. Why then are the shares further lower, below 40p, having been above 60p earlier this year?...
From the FCA's spreadsheet of short positions required to be disclosed to it, the following shows the shorted AIM shares with positions from 2016 and thus far in 2017 (by net short position %) - and if this position has increased (red), reduced (green) or remained unchanged (black) since last week...
Previously writing on System1 Group (SYS1), then named BrainJuicer Group, as the shares slid below 700p I concluded there still, despite self-admitted “limited revenue visibility”, a clear lack of a Benjamin Graham ‘margin of safety’ (”for absorbing the effect of miscalculations or worse than average luck” e.g. an earnings miss or negative change in stock market sentiment) and I thus continued to avoid. The shares have though recently been above 800p… until a “Trading Update” announcement today…
In the piss poor results for the six months to 30 June 2017, Telit (TCM) highlighted that it had purchased GainSpan and provided the following rather limited commentary on its contribution to the interim results:
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