Hot share tips and all the big AIM exposes from the City's most-connected reporters
ShareProphets AIM-China Filthy Forty play Aquatic Foods (AFG) shares were suspended last month because it couldn’t get its accounts out on time. We were told that this was because of difficulties getting its enormous cash-pile out of China to pay a number of parties whose assistance is required for the finalisation of the audited accounts. For that, we might presume that it includes the audit firm. We were told that the accounts were anticipated to be released in July – and here we are with 6 trading days left. Is it crunch time?
Having commented earlier today on the flourishing growth of the Standard List due in part to tougher rules on AIM, it felt appropriate to start covering a perfect example of such a company, namely Pembridge Resources (PERE) , which is currently moving from AIM to the Standard List. To be fair though, on an initial glance, there’s a lot worse in my Sub-Standard Shockers XI.
Tom and I covered this the other day, but I wonder whether we’ve missed a trick with regard to AIM-listed Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO) and its dealings with death spiral sharks Bracknor. Immediately prior to last week’s funding news my back-of-an-envelope calculation was that Bracknor still held £1.95 million of loan notes and a further £0.7 million from fees. Given that Bracknor held little (if any) shares, why has it not beaten a hasty track to get the loans converted so that it can sell into the resulting strength?
I introduced the idea of the Sub-Standard Shockers X1 in May last year on the basis that I felt that the Standard List was becoming a home for companies unable to get on AIM for one reason or another so I believed that, almost by definition, they were destined to fail. I had firmed up the original squad of fifteen over the summer (see HERE). I have since added others but thought it worth looking at those original squad members in a “Where are they now?” type feature.
The top story this week (and several others in the top ten) is regarding former ShareSoc chairman Roger Lawson's threat to sue Tom Winnifrith over Tom's writings.
Metal Tiger (MTR) has updated on a preliminary interpretation of airborne electromagnetic geophysics data collected along 50km of the T3 Dome – a largely unexplored structure, where the company’s Botswana joint venture discovered the copper-silver deposit ‘T3’ last year.
I started the PLC death list in June 2015 with 21 members. The aim is to pick stocks that will either go bust or get slung off the AIM Casino. Each departure requires a nreplacement. With nine new entrants today 40 names have joined this select group. So far there have been two outright failures on my part, Mariana Resources (MARL) and Jersey Oil & Gas (JOG). There was one volte face but I was ahead at volte face point and it was a great call both short and long - Wandisco (WAND), two near kills, InternetQ (INTQ) and Monitise (MONI) and thirteen slam dunk kills: Cloudtag (CTAG), Worthington (WRN), African Potash (AFPO), Jiasen (JSI), Camkids (CAMK), China Chaintek (CTAK), JQW (JQW), Afren (AFR), Daniel Stewart (DAN), Sefton (SER), Outsourcey (OUT - boy I enjoyed that one - Afriag (AFRI) and Auhua. So 13 out of 31 = 40%+ - not bad eh? Arguably that is 15 out of 31 - almost 50%! That leaves:
I see that UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) has cemented its position as the nation’s favourite oil tiddler with a stonking rally to 5.1p since my recent short call at 3p. I haven’t received such joyous vitriol on twitter since I called Cloudtag a sell at 7p and saw the shares rise to 20p. Tom Winnifrith gleefully points out that he is glad to see someone take over as the Bulletin Board Moron's No 1 hate figure, at least for now.
From the FCA's spreadsheet of short positions required to be disclosed to it, the following shows the shorted AIM shares with positions from 2016 and thus far in 2017 (by net short position %) - and if this position has increased (red), reduced (green) or remained unchanged (black) since last week...
I wrote an article yesterday on my own website about the ponzi that is the UK state pension and how it is bound to collapse unless very hard choices are made which they will not be. I note a lot of smart comments were posted by readers on that article so delve deeper into this issue but go on to address other massive changes that will hit the UK workforce and how the State is in total denial about how it will cope. It comes up with bad solutions or no solutions but the net result is that in 20 years time you and I will not be able to rely on the State for anything at all - so what should we all do now?
Hello, Share Muckers. Because I still own far too many oil stocks, I really must take my pruning shears to most of them. We seem to be moving very slowly towards renewables and nuclear, not to mention the march of hybrid cars.
Having commenced the year at just over 100p, shares in staffing group Empresaria (EMR) reached 168p at the start of last month before slipping back – closing yesterday at 146.5p. However, they are currently 5.5% higher today on the back of a “Trading Update” announcement…
Over the past few weeks we have published a string of letters sent by a significant shareholder in AIM listed Norfolk Mercantile Ports & Logistics (MPL) to its Nomad Cenkos so that when Mercantile runs out of other people's money as it surely will, the shamed former adviser on the Quindell (QPP) fraud cannot say that "it did not know." Its role is on the record as you can see in our full coverage HERE. Now that same shareholder has written to Daniel Slater, the analyst at co broker Arden Partners responsible for - arguably - the worst research note of 2017.
I've known Andrea Gonella for ages. We have never, to my knowledge, met but have oft corresponded by email. He resides, I think, in Belize and seems to spend a lot of his time fishing. Lucky chap. He is also minted and someone who has for ages believed that Conroy Gold & Natural Resources (CGNR) sits on a very interesting gold deposit in some of those counties of Ireland that are part of God's own Kingdom of Ulster but are these days in the Republic of Ireland. However...
For months, shares in R4E (R4E) have been held back because it was in technical breach of the covenants on its bank debt. We never expected the bank to pull with Nigel Wray and Johnny Hon owning c50% of the equity and standing behind the firm. But some BB savants knew better...they always do.
Our exclusive Winnileaks service has obtained a series of emails from May 3rd 2017 which show that Peterhouse Corporate Finance has misled investors in Nyota Minerals (NYO) - these emails compound the damning evidence of the secret document I published on Wednesday. This is so damning that maybe even the useless clowns at AIM Regulation will take an interest.
Naturally Sprott Asset Management, as the world's best known resource investor, favours gold but, and this may surprise you, it does see a case for bitcoin exposure. Its latest monthly report discusses the battle: Bitcoin vs Gold. Over to analyst Trey Reik who writes:
Shares in AO World (AO.) haven’t even nearly recovered to levels prior to a profit warning in 2015 – and indeed have recently been sliding further. Does an “AGM and Trading Statement” announcement today help?...
Nine share tips tips, defending Churchill, and not missing Nigel Wray. And much more...
As I write shares in AA Group (AA.) are down by 23% at 89p and you will never gbuess which high profile fund manager is a major holder, largely for the dividend income. Yup you got it, its Neil Woodford and yes the dividend is being slashed.
You may say that fundamentals don't matter on the AIM casino. In the short run you are right - sentiment drives share prices. But in due course fundamentals always out and that inherent valuation mismatch is your opportunity to buy cheap, unloved, stock or to short over-promoted crap. And that brings us to UK Oil & Gas (UKOG), now just 1.375p after yesterday's disastrous news from Broadford Bridge. So what is it really worth?
No I have not changed my mind. I am still a bear and stand by my target price of 0.4p but after chatting to a number of folks I try to see if there is a bull case. And I record this before setting off to the Greek Hovel which is my main focus of attention pro tem to prove to my friend and fellow Hammer, Thirsty David Bick that I am still alive, I hope that he takes up my invitation to come and watch the foul mouthed ladies of West Ham in action.
Once again Waseem Shakoor has been vindicated and those morons who ignored his sensible analysis and attacked him have done their conkers. Waseem stays short of UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) and his tweets over the past 24 hours ( starting with the most recent) explain why. I think his analysis of where next is very similar to mine of earlier. Over to the great man...
"I am tomorrow, or some future day, what I establish today. I am today what I established yesterday or some previous day." So said the great Irish author James Joyce. But the question for lackey Nomad James Joyce at WH Ireland is whether his client UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) has a tomorrow, has a future day at all? A statement is needed now to clarify the financial position of his client.
KEFI Minerals (KEFI) has updated that its “activities have been unaffected as regards its daily interface with the various government agencies and with the community at Tulu Kapi” following the Ethiopian Prime Minister’s recent resignation and the concurrently announced State of Emergency - and that it “believes its finance plans remain unaffected”…
Last October I talked positively about Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) versus one of its challenger peers, noting:
Hat tip to Andrew Monk of VSA for spotting this paper from Hult Business School. It does give you food for thought. Certainly why would anyone invested in a heavily indebted business with bigg exposure to the carrying value of cars as we known them ( Northgate or BCA Marketplace for example) or the AA? Maybe Neil Woodford should read this and ponder before he buys any more shares in the AA or BCA?
Loyal readers will know that I, like Mr Woodford, love a quiz and with my favourite week of the year fast approaching, I thought I’d run a (simpler) quiz with a Cheltenham-related prize. There’s only two questions, so I’m hoping for more than one entrant this time!
Previously updating, we noted HaiKe Chemical Group (HAIK) potentially in the 'geong, geong' stage. There has since been developments - and what does the 'Filthy Forty' look like now?...
Previously writing on energy services company Flowgroup (FLOW) in December I concluded there looks much to do, including noting potential working capital support required. There’s now a Funding Facility and Related Party Transaction announcement…
Concepta (CPT) has always had a twin track model for rolling out MyLotus in China - direct to hospitals (B2B) and direct to individual punters (B2C). On the latter front we now have news.
Chocolatier and retailer, Hotel Chocolat (HOTC) has announced results for its half year ended 31st December 2017, including emphasising “another period of strong progress… with growth in both sales and profits” and “a strong differentiated brand which offers great products and customer service and that is priced as an affordable luxury, gives the board confidence in the group's continued progress”. So why have the shares responded lower, towards 300p?...
I previously wrote on touch sensors company Zytronic (ZYT) in December, concluding then that a circa 500p share price looked little, if any, better than fair enough. There is now an update on the first four months of its current financial year…
Hello Share Splurgers. The name Prairie Mining (PDZ) might give an impression that it’s a green company. Yet it deals in coal. But this coal is ideal for making coke, and from school days I think this is a cleaner alternative to the stuff we burned to keep the ‘frost flowers’ from the inside of our windows in the ‘fifties.
AIM-listed Milestone Group (MSG) has this morning posted the most awful set of results. Having been on the AIM Casino since 2003, the company clocked up losses of £2.26 million on revenues of a paltry £24,640. Retained losses stood at a jaw-dropping £33 million and the audit report (needless to say, missing from today’s RNS) contains, we are told, a material uncertainty paragraph. I should coco.
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