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Latest News

FEVR

Fevertree - Onto My Bear Watchlist

In what has been the longest running bull market that I can remember, in which stocks have risen, pretty much in a straight line for over nine years, it has been hard for bears to witness the benign tolerance with which evidently flaky and fraudulent companies are treated by the investing community. In these times patience is required, and it is worthwhile preparing a watchlist of names that are likely to be the most vulnerable when the market finally rolls over. While this list should comprise for the most part those with over-leveraged balance sheets and questionable accounting practices, solid companies should not be discounted out of hand.

Bearcast
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Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Okay I look a bit of a prat but Optibiotix buy case stronger than ever

In today's podcast I look at Falcon Media (FAL), Avanti Communications (AVN), Echo Energy (ECHO), Fishing Republic (FISH) - Gary Newman can you help us out here, Woodford dog Xeros (XSG) and Optibiotix (OPTI). Now the Woodlarks charity walk. We have now raised just over £4,000 (nearly £5,000) with gift aid. A big shout out to Mark McDowell who pledged £666 yesterday (clearly a reference to Brokerman Dan). But 97% of Bearcast listeners are yet to chip in, I am sure you can all spare a tenner so please donate NOW HERE. To those who have donated already, thank you.

PHTM
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Photo-Me – from Japan photo ID excitement to a profit warning

Results for its year ended 30th April 2016 from Photo-Me (PHTM) noted it growing “deploying machines in Japan in order to respond to the increased demand created by the roll-out of a new photo ID”. The following year’s results noted “adoption by citizens has not been as rapid as the government had anticipated” and a trading update now includes on Japan “a very difficult market due to an oversupply which has put pressure on commissions across the industry”. Uh oh…

STOB
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Stobart: Public dirty washing airing hilarity – is Woodford backing the wrong horse (again)?

As a keen observer of the public markets, I love a good old-fashioned boardroom squabble as much as the next man but the one being played out in public at Stobart (STOB) is funnier than normal as the Tinkler/Ferguson tiff is only part of the comedy. Sure the details being shared add to the amusement but I am more concerned about the fact that Neil Woodford and Invesco’s Mark Barnett may have fallen out too – is the protégé finally casting the shackles aside?

Timebomb

Drowning in Debt: Delinquencies Are Surging and It’s Only Getting Worse

The research note from Palisade analyst Adem Tumerkan came out last night and concerns the US economy. But if you think that it does not apply to our own debt fuelled economy in the UK you are kidding yourself. It is pretty scary stuff.

FAL

Falcon Media and Derriston Capital – Conflicting fortunes on the Standard List

Two interesting announcements this morning from a couple of Standard List participants, namely Falcon Media House (FAL) and Derriston Capital (DERR). it’s finally the long overdue end of the road for the former but could be just the start of an exciting journey for the latter.

UAI

Here's A Profitable Property Developer Which Wants to Transform Depressing Urban Landscapes

Hello, Share Stylists. Though I’m unhappy with the name because it seems clumsy and certainly uninformative, U+I Group (UAI) is worth a look. For one thing, it’s one of those rare companies which you feel is trying to contribute towards a better world.

SHOE

Shoe Zone – a good first half & remains confident of the outlook - BUY

Shoe Zone (SHOE) has announced results from “a good first half” ended 31st March 2019 and “trading momentum has continued into the second half, in line with expectations for the full year”

AFG
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Filthy Forty and banished from AIM, Aquatic Foods NED’s make a few admissions: ShareProphets was right

On 28 December 2017, ShareProphets AIM-China Filthy Forty play Aquatic Foods Group issued an RNS stating that it couldn’t publish accounts for 2016 and the shares would be booted off AIM the following morning. Of course, there’s a lot more to that and ShareProphets had been predicting the demise for months. Now the patsy NEDs have issued a statement and it is clear that ShareProphets was right all along.

RIC

Richoux Group – results statement emphasises “ungeared”… but concerns

I previously wrote on restaurant group Richoux (RIC) just under a year ago - significant (discounted) management investment, but clear challenges remain for former Prezzo boss. That investment was at 16p. On the back of results for the 53 weeks ended 3rd December 2017, the shares have currently crashed below 7p…

Bearcast
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Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - my heart goes out to Zac "the knife" Phillips at SP Angel - you poor bastard

In today's bearcast I express my sympathies to poor Zac for the job he has to do as an analyst writing about corporate clients. I refer to uber dog Mosman Oil & Gas(MSMN). I also look at Andalas (ADL) - the worst oil stock on AIM and which is STILL not answering valid questions as its shares collapse again. I look at Akers Biosciences (AKR) and, in detail, at IDOX (IDOX). Finally...97% of bearcast listeners  have NOT yet sponsored myself and Brokerman Dan for our 30 mile Woodlarks walk. If you enjoy bearcast I am sure you can spare a tenner so donate HERE  - to those who have donated I say thank you.

SFE

Safestyle UK – “pleased” with interim legal outcome… but clear challenges remain

Shares in Safestyle UK (SFE) have currently bounced above 60p on the back of an “Update: Filing of Legal Claim & Directorate Change”

EU_flag

Italy could easily be worse than Brexit for the EU

Current Italian politicians are well schooled in The Italian drama of 2011. Then the ECB used the bond market as a political tool. The EU even tried to recruit Washington. The US refused to help. “We can’t have blood on our hands,” said the US Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner. The ECB switched purchases on and off to pressure and ultimately overthrew the elected Government of Silvio Berlusconi.

MPH

Mereo - the worst Primary Bid offer ever flops disastrously - it says it was a success. Whatever.

On Saturday Cynical Bear asked if the Mereo Pharma (MPH) offer at 300p via Primary Bid was its worst ever? The answer, notwithstanding stiff competition from uber dogs such as Toople (ROOP) was clearly YES!. And the placing has flopped. Living in la la land Mereo says it was "successful". Like fuck it was. You lie Mereo!

ECHO

Echo Energy accelerates its operations in Argentina

Often when a smaller AIM company operating in the natural resources sector announces a placing it ends up being bad news for those currently invested, but there are also cases where the money is being sought in order to accelerate operations. Of course, the company still ultimately needs to deliver and for the work that the money is being raised for to be successful, but I would certainly rather see this than a company that is sitting around doing nothing and burning through cash whilst its directors pocket a nice salary.

Pants on fire

Julie Meyer Video - The Love of Money is the Root of all evil

"For the love of money is the root of all evil: which while some coveted after, they have erred from the faith, and pierced themselves through with many sorrows." Timothy 6:10 ( King James Version Natch). So in that vein who said "I remember being very obsessed with having no money but if you are good money will find you." To find out watch this classic video from 2011

Malcolm

More Reflections - and Some Comfort - on the Distressing Beaufort Affair

Hello Share Plodders. So the £100 million estimate that the administrators first gave for winding up Beaufort Securities seems wildly out. They now acknowledge it will be more likely to be £55 million. Well, we all make wrong guesses, though not usually £45 million ones. They’ve also reduced their earlier estimate of as much as four years to finish the job to a more likely two years. Another big ‘refinement’.

Bearcast
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Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Julian Richer you are whistling on Phil Green and tax & will Italy bring down the Euro? It should!

I start with the myth which Julian Richer is trying to perpetuate that you can somehow stop large scale, 100% legal, tax avoidance by folks like Sir Phil Green or indeed the legal stuff we all engage in by using dividends in private companies, etc. Then I ask if Italy might break the Euro or even the EU who are behaving - again - with shocking contempt for the little people. It should. Will it?  Finally...98% of bearcast listeners  have NOT yet sponsored myself and Brokerman Dan for our 30 mile Woodlarks walk. If you enjoy bearcast I am sure you can spare a tenner so donate HERE  - to those who have donated I say thank you.

MTR

Metal Tiger – “delighted to report” required assays received, but…

Metal Tiger (MTR) has updated that “T3 (Motheo) Pit Resource Infill and Extension Programme drilling complete”, with a revised resource estimate expected during June, and “with 50 holes completed to date for the underground resource extension drilling programme the JV will soon be in a position to start estimating a T3 Underground Resource”

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