Hot share tips and all the big AIM exposes from the City's most-connected reporters
Hello Share Trackers. From time to time, I’ve suggested you peek at the giant drinks firm Diageo (DGE). The reasons I usually rehearse are basic. The world seems to be on a strengthening booze trail. And if the world’s economy is due a massive correction, as everybody seems to fear, people seem to seek solace in more drinking.
I have today written to Britain's most conceited fund manager Neil Woodford to see whether he dares to stand up for himself and face up to me in public. Here goes
There is no honour among thieves. There is still less amongst those hacks working for the dying industry that is the deadwood press. Step forward City AM and journalist Lucy White who on February 1 at 2.42 PM ran a story with the sub head "The corporate finance firm of former Dragons' Den star Julie Meyer, which was put into administration at the end of last year, owes almost £2m to unpaid employees and advisers, City A.M. can reveal"
The scandal over fat cat bonuses at Persimmon (PSN) is something that we were the first to expose back in September of last year way before the national press got onto the case. The real villains are the Government but also the overpaid and negligent City fund managers who agreed to this scheme. They are now trying to shift the blame onto the bosses, notably CEO Jeff Fairburn, but this is about blame shifting not what is in the best interests of shareholders. I then look at wider market wobbles mentioning, en passant, IQE (IQE), SnapChat and other examples of lunacy.
On February 1st 2017 Stellar Diamonds (STEL) announced that it was "in advanced negotiations" about a bid at 12.7p, a 452% premium to the share price on January 31. Hooray, trebles all round. But hang on Henry what about those share options?
Julie Meyer's Maltese based holding company has sent me a lawyers letter (its second in two weeks) to try to stop me publishing an email she sent to a potential investor in Ariadne Capital Limited on October 6 2017 which - thanks to the Winnileaks service - has fallen into my possession. Given the administrator's report into Ariadne which I revealed last week I can understand why she is so desperate for the email not to emerge. Someone has been either lying big time or just can't add up, but who?
I see that smarmy lefty millionaire comedian Bob Mortimer is boasting in today's Sunday Telegraph about how he bought IQE (IQE) as a penny stock and it is now 163p. Methinks not Bob. I warmed folks to sell at 138.5p in a detailed dossier published in October HERE. Matt Earl's 36 page note of Friday has really set the cat among the pigeons. The shares are 104p but will - I suspect - tank on Monday.
Capita was last week's main disaster for Neil Woodford although there were others. He has tried to polish the turd HERE but has failed. His next disaster is Prothena which could slump Monday and as I explain in this podcast it is massive for Nomates. I then explain how the whole Woodford empire could well collapse. Make no mistake, this weekend, Britain's most conceited fund manager is staring into the abyss. I also comment on Obtala - take up the Primary Bid offer HERE - and on my wife's failings as a navigator as I march through muddy puddles.
Uh oh! This matters as Prothena is a massive holding for Britain's most conceited fund manager Neil Woodford and as such an unravel here would be massive omlette on face time. Again. On Friday, after hours, the Chief Medical Officer of Nasdaq listed biotech Prothena walked. If that is not a red flag what is?
Neil Woodford has published his thoughts on Capita (CPI) after its share price halved. To put it bluntly Neil Woodford is yanking the chain of his long suffering investors. In paragraph three he states: "Putting the share price reaction to one side for a moment, I am pleased that we have seen from the company what we thought would be coming". As a reminder, Capita has scrapped its dividend. Yet on 19 January Nomates opined:
UPDATED: We own these shares and I am a fan of boss Miles Pelham to whom I have just spoken. With this cash and the placing announced earlier this week Obtala will report positive and meaningful EPS this year. Its shares trade at a massive discount to NAV. TAKE UP THIS OFFER. Obtala (OBT) has announced a Fundraise via Primary Bid at a subscription price of 12.5p per Ordinary Share. This represents a discount of approximately 9% to the closing mid price on Thursday 01 February, 2018.
From the FCA's spreadsheet of short positions required to be disclosed to it, the following shows the shorted AIM shares with positions from 2017 and thus far in 2018 (by net short position %) - and if this position has increased (red), reduced (green) or remained unchanged (black) since last week...
One matter that leaps out at me in the devastating report into the collapse of Ariadne Capital Limited leaving dozens of creditors to whistle for millions, is the quite extraordinary related party transaction involving Entrepreneur Country and Julie Meyer MBE. This stinks to high heaven.
Hello, Share Slickers. The world’s biggest oil company Exxon Mobil has posted disappointing numbers. As a result, the shares dipped 5%. Analysts were expecting profits to jump on the big rally in oil prices. But get this. The company actually announced 4th quarter net profits of £8.4 billion. Yes, $8.4 billion!
Today's bad news for Britain's most conceited fund manager, Neil "Nomates" Woodford is a savage note on Purplebricks (PURP) by broker Jeffries setting a 94p target as you can see HERE. I discuss why this target could be too low or could be far too generous but the shares are certainly a slam dunk sell. I look at IQE (IQE) in light of Matty Earl's bombshell note HERE. There is comment on Online BlockCrap (OBC) and a look behind the headline numbers and the turd polishing which shows why Mobile Streams (MOS) is so deep in the unpolishable merde
Yesterday Utilitywise (UTW) was “pleased to announce that the group has agreed amendments to its banking facility agreement… based upon forecasts that have been shared with the bank in respect of the group's plans for cash generation over the coming months”. Today there’s a Half-year net debt announcement (couldn’t these have been announced at the same time then?). Anyway…
Matt Earl, the bear raider known as the Dark Destroyer is riding high after a string of recent big wins including Mitie (MTO). His next target is IQE (IQE) currently valued at c£890 million. Launching his new hedge fund Shadowfall Matt has produced a damning 36 page dossier which we reproduce in full below.
John Galt is, as you know, an Ayn Rand character. It is also the "nom de plume" of a former senior staffer at Ariadne Capital Limited (now in a shocking administration after £10.5 million disappeared in 10 months as we revealed HERE) who has said that he will expose Ms Meyer. His opening salvo has appeared on LinkedIn today.
Nine share tips tips, defending Churchill, and not missing Nigel Wray. And much more...
As I write shares in AA Group (AA.) are down by 23% at 89p and you will never gbuess which high profile fund manager is a major holder, largely for the dividend income. Yup you got it, its Neil Woodford and yes the dividend is being slashed.
You may say that fundamentals don't matter on the AIM casino. In the short run you are right - sentiment drives share prices. But in due course fundamentals always out and that inherent valuation mismatch is your opportunity to buy cheap, unloved, stock or to short over-promoted crap. And that brings us to UK Oil & Gas (UKOG), now just 1.375p after yesterday's disastrous news from Broadford Bridge. So what is it really worth?
No I have not changed my mind. I am still a bear and stand by my target price of 0.4p but after chatting to a number of folks I try to see if there is a bull case. And I record this before setting off to the Greek Hovel which is my main focus of attention pro tem to prove to my friend and fellow Hammer, Thirsty David Bick that I am still alive, I hope that he takes up my invitation to come and watch the foul mouthed ladies of West Ham in action.
Once again Waseem Shakoor has been vindicated and those morons who ignored his sensible analysis and attacked him have done their conkers. Waseem stays short of UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) and his tweets over the past 24 hours ( starting with the most recent) explain why. I think his analysis of where next is very similar to mine of earlier. Over to the great man...
"I am tomorrow, or some future day, what I establish today. I am today what I established yesterday or some previous day." So said the great Irish author James Joyce. But the question for lackey Nomad James Joyce at WH Ireland is whether his client UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) has a tomorrow, has a future day at all? A statement is needed now to clarify the financial position of his client.
KEFI Minerals (KEFI) has updated that its “activities have been unaffected as regards its daily interface with the various government agencies and with the community at Tulu Kapi” following the Ethiopian Prime Minister’s recent resignation and the concurrently announced State of Emergency - and that it “believes its finance plans remain unaffected”…
Last October I talked positively about Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) versus one of its challenger peers, noting:
Hat tip to Andrew Monk of VSA for spotting this paper from Hult Business School. It does give you food for thought. Certainly why would anyone invested in a heavily indebted business with bigg exposure to the carrying value of cars as we known them ( Northgate or BCA Marketplace for example) or the AA? Maybe Neil Woodford should read this and ponder before he buys any more shares in the AA or BCA?
Loyal readers will know that I, like Mr Woodford, love a quiz and with my favourite week of the year fast approaching, I thought I’d run a (simpler) quiz with a Cheltenham-related prize. There’s only two questions, so I’m hoping for more than one entrant this time!
Previously updating, we noted HaiKe Chemical Group (HAIK) potentially in the 'geong, geong' stage. There has since been developments - and what does the 'Filthy Forty' look like now?...
Previously writing on energy services company Flowgroup (FLOW) in December I concluded there looks much to do, including noting potential working capital support required. There’s now a Funding Facility and Related Party Transaction announcement…
Concepta (CPT) has always had a twin track model for rolling out MyLotus in China - direct to hospitals (B2B) and direct to individual punters (B2C). On the latter front we now have news.
Chocolatier and retailer, Hotel Chocolat (HOTC) has announced results for its half year ended 31st December 2017, including emphasising “another period of strong progress… with growth in both sales and profits” and “a strong differentiated brand which offers great products and customer service and that is priced as an affordable luxury, gives the board confidence in the group's continued progress”. So why have the shares responded lower, towards 300p?...
I previously wrote on touch sensors company Zytronic (ZYT) in December, concluding then that a circa 500p share price looked little, if any, better than fair enough. There is now an update on the first four months of its current financial year…
Hello Share Splurgers. The name Prairie Mining (PDZ) might give an impression that it’s a green company. Yet it deals in coal. But this coal is ideal for making coke, and from school days I think this is a cleaner alternative to the stuff we burned to keep the ‘frost flowers’ from the inside of our windows in the ‘fifties.
AIM-listed Milestone Group (MSG) has this morning posted the most awful set of results. Having been on the AIM Casino since 2003, the company clocked up losses of £2.26 million on revenues of a paltry £24,640. Retained losses stood at a jaw-dropping £33 million and the audit report (needless to say, missing from today’s RNS) contains, we are told, a material uncertainty paragraph. I should coco.
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