ShareProphets

Wednesday 26 April 2017 The one stop source for free breaking news, expert analysis, and videos on AIM and LSE listed shares


22 February 2013, 16:02 | By Robert Sutherland Smith |

BA System’s 2012 results: be aware of crucial assumptions made

BAE Systems (BA.) the British aerospace and defence contractor  was the  subject of a pre-results assessment by myself last month which was not of the optimistic variety, produced its results for calendar 2012 on 21st February. It is to be congratulated on the speed at which it presented its numbers and on the optimistic presentation of the state of play. But my assessment is not changed and is, I think somewhat vindicated.

21 February 2013, 16:05 | By Robert Sutherland Smith |

Drax pleases the market, but is off the high dividend tariff

So that old fashioned (in scale) and very British (Yorkshire) non global business of supplying the 7% of the UK’s electricity has, as part of the price of converting half its highly efficient coal fired electricity generation capacity, to the generation of electric power from biomass - mainly imported, fast growing replaceable timber – is off the stock market's higher end dividend tariff. Before its results for last year to 31st December 2012, on a then share price of 609p, the published dividend yield for Drax (DRX) was 4.3%. That was then this is now.

19 February 2013, 19:00 | By Steve Moore |

EMIS Group – Exacting Market Impeding Shares?

Shares in EMIS Group (EMIS), a leading UK supplier of clinical software and related services to GP practices and other healthcare practitioners and a major software supplier to high street pharmacies, commenced 2013 at more than 900p but fell more than 16.5% (to 750p) on 24th January as the company reported “lower than planned revenues from the Australian defence contract, training and integrated care services. Group adjusted operating profit is expected to be marginally below analysts’ expectations, largely as a result of the accelerated staff and recruitment costs associated with the EMIS Web roll out and the slight revenue shortfalls highlighted above”. The shares have further declined since to trade at a current 650p, capitalising this AIM-listed company at £380.5 million. The following analyses whether this current, lower level represents value…

19 February 2013, 19:00 | By Steve Moore |

Phoenix IT Group – a phoenix from flames?

Phoenix IT Group (PNX), a fully-listed IT services company to UK enterprises, updated last week (13th February 2013) that it “currently believes the Group’s EBITDA for the year to 31 March 2013 will be around 10% below market expectations, but is encouraged by an improving order book and pipeline”. Having traded at more than 230p in 2012 and commenced 2013 at 184p, the shares presently trade at 157p, capitalising the company at £118.3 million. In light of the ‘improving order book and pipeline’, the following reviews whether there is value on offer here…

19 February 2013, 16:17 | By Robert Sutherland Smith |

RBS: a massive overhang of shares offers a share price decline and a compelling reason to sell now

The share price of RBS (RBS) has headed due south since my bearish comments on the company last month. Reviewing the share in terms of its future dividend paying capacity in the light of recent history, I observed that in the different world and circumstance of 2007 ( when bank capital adequacy was seemingly almost inconsequential and some banks were running on low or dubious capital or both ) RBS had distributed only 30% of its earnings as  dividends. That implied on a totally theoretical, best expectation 30% dividend payout from 36p of earnings per share, a dividend of 11..9p; translating into by way of academic exercise, into an annual yield of a mere 3.3%.

18 February 2013, 18:01 | By Robert Sutherland Smith |

SSE: on an estimated dividend yield of nearly 6% a buy

There are two things about energy supplier SSE Plc (it was until recently known as  Scottish and Southern Electricity - which used to prompt thoughts of hairy highlanders incongruously tossing cables at a vicarage lawn tea party presided over by Miss Marples) which makes its shares a good dividend income play. But also, a share with some potential for long term capital appreciation relative to the FTSE 100 Index.

15 February 2013, 15:00 | By Tom Winnifrith |

Gulfsands Petroleum – Even Commissioned researcher Edison sees limited upside

A report lands on my desk today from Edison Research on AIM Listed Gulfsands Petroleum (GPX) entitled  “The road out of Damascus.” This report was commissioned by Gulfsands ( i.e. paid for) and so one would not expect a bearish conclusion. ‘tis always the way with research reports from commissioned firms ( like Edison or Hardman) or from a house broker  - they want to say buy but sometimes just cannot do so. And so you get what is known as a “corporate hold” . i.e. sell.  There is no recommendation on the report but with the shares at 111.75p it sets a risked valuation of the stock at 119p. I cannot see why anyone would buy a share for just 6% upside. Any sane investor would sell and switch into a stock with more upside.

14 February 2013, 19:00 | By Steve Moore |

Entertainment One – a potential blockbuster?

Entertainment One (ETO), the London main market listed producer and distributor of film and television content, has updated that “full year earnings are anticipated to be in line with management’s expectations” on underlying revenue up 11% in the 10 month period to end January. The shares have risen from a 13.5p low hit in the depths of the markets 2009 despair to a current 188p. They did however trade above 200p in late 2011/early 2012 and, with a present market cap in excess of £500 million, the following offers my current take here…

13 February 2013, 17:56 | By Tom Winnifrith |

Sirius Minerals: Delays and Departures: sell ahead of cash call

A raft of announcements have been made by Sirius Minerals (SXX) today but amid the verbage the clear drift is not positive. The shares are off – at 25.25p – but the company is still valued at £339 million. That simply cannot be justified.I did suggest that holders at least top slice on January 31st at 27.75p as bulletin board frothed with excitement on news that the company had submitted a planning application for its Potash mine on the North York Moors – you can read that piece HERE

12 February 2013, 17:54 | By Tom Winnifrith |

Avanti Communications Interims – The Company is Delivering, Evil, Lucian and the bears have been shown to be wrong

Bear raiders Lucian Miers and Evil Knievil are meeting for lunch today. I know, as I was invited but my liver is not up to it. However the main course should be humble pie. The bears predicted that Avanti would miss its targets at the interim stage. Moreover the results demonstrate very clearly that it is already more than two thirds of the way to hitting 2014 (not a misprint) numbers and that it continues to win business. The shares are a buy at 265p and could move sharply as the bears are squeezed. I sense that margin calls could well be served up at Evil towers today in time for pudding.

11 February 2013, 19:00 | By Steve Moore |

Telecom Plus – continuing to Trade Positively

Telecom Plus (TEP), which trades as the Utility Warehouse and supplies a range of utility services (gas, electricity, fixed line telephony, mobile telephony and broadband internet) to both residential and business customers in the UK, has updated that a “continuing strong performance” means it remains “confident of reporting full year profits in line with current consensus market expectations”. The shares trade at 980p on the back of the announcement and are up from sub 300p on a three year view and from sub 650p on a one year view. With a market cap now of approaching £700 million, the following reviews whether there looks to remain value in the shares…

8 February 2013, 15:11 | By Tom Winnifrith |

WANdisco Product Launch – Use Euphoria to Top Slice

Shares in big data provider WANdisco (WAND) have raced ahead by 62.5p today on the back of a new product launch. For those who followed my advice to have a nibble at 493p on January 6th the reward is pretty clear. That WANdisco is making progress is without doubt but are we all getting a bit ahead of ourselves?

7 February 2013, 15:19 | By Tom Winnifrith |

GMA Resources – Reversal and Share Price Over-reaction: Lucian Miers right to be short

AIM listed GMA Resources (GMA) has just returned from an eight month suspension. A cash shell (with not a lot of cash) following the failure of its last hydrocarbon business venture it has now announced a RTO which will see it owning 90% of two mining assets in Kazakhstan. The shares returned from suspension on February 5th and promptly soared to 0.9p which in effect valued the business at £700 million. That forced the company to issue a statement re-explaining its share structure – in effect saying its stock was overvalued. The shares still trade at 0.24p but are still at least 60% overvalued.

6 February 2013, 19:00 | By Steve Moore |

Craneware – continuing to build a strong position in the US healthcare market?

Following from my piece on AIM-listed GB Group yesterday, I today comment on a fellow AIM-listed tech stock which also updated on trading towards the end of last month; Craneware plc (CRW). Despite its name and its being incorporated and headquartered in Scotland (Edinburgh), the company is actually a software provider focused on the US healthcare market. With offices in Atlanta, Arizona, Massachusetts and Tennessee, its software helps hospitals and other healthcare providers more effectively price, charge, code and retain revenue for patient care services and supplies – increasing their efficiency and minimising compliance risk. The following reviews the company’s recent trading update and investment outlook…

6 February 2013, 15:09 | By Tom Winnifrith |

Ruspetro – Farce Turns to Tragedy as refinancing “postponed”

Russian Oil producer Ruspetro (RPO) has served up another shocking statement this morning – its habit of delivering nasty surprises does not change. Having advised a short at 83.5p on January 4th I suggested on 25th of January that having refinanced its debt it was “merely one to avoid.” The shock today is that it has decided not to refinance its debt or to undertake the partial debt for equity swap announced on January 25th. This leaves its cash position looking very tricky indeed and at 50.5p the shares are once again a sell.

5 February 2013, 19:00 | By Steve Moore |

GB Group – a Great Buy or not?

Shares in AIM-listed GB Group (GBG) have been strong performers over recent years – commencing 2010 trading at 21p, they currently trade at 94.25p – capitalising the company at more than £100 million. Following a trading update last week, does value remain here?

5 February 2013, 15:07 | By Tom Winnifrith |

Imagination Technologies: Good company but price overblown: sell

Imagination Technologies (IMG) is clearly a good company. It is profitable, it is growing its sales rapidly, there is operational gearing and it generates cash and has a net cash position. It ticks all the boxes and is thus loved by investors retail and institutional. But at 523p the company is capitalised at £1.37 billion and on the basis of what is known that share price looks overheated. The shares are a sell.

4 February 2013, 15:04 | By Tom Winnifrith |

Baobab Resources – Good News in the Price, follow Lucian Miers and sell

After many years of scratching around Southern Africa for a project with real prospects AIM listed Boabab (BAO) appears to have found something that could be a winner in the form of the Tete pig iron/vanadium/titanium target in Mozambique.  With iron ore stocks all rallying sharply in the past two or three months on the back of hopes of resurgence in Chinese demand, Baobab shares have raced ahead to 35.75p which values this company at £106 million. This is a stock that has now got far ahead of its fundamental value and I can reveal that last week well known bear raider Lucian Miers opened up a short. That is a good call which you should follow.

1 February 2013, 21:23 | By Robert Sutherland Smith |

National Grid: Interim Management Statement – On course

Earlier this month I advocated a purchase of National Grid (NG.) for dividend yield. This week the company published its interim management statement for the period 1 October 2012 to 28 January 2013. It seems that my reading of the runes were pretty much correct. Regulatory management is shown to be going according to plan and shows no obvious signs of not moving into an expected new dance like embrace of mutual understanding and agreement  between the regulator and company for the years following 2013.

1 February 2013, 13:59 | By Tom Winnifrith |

Medusa Mining output guidance pared - a reason to sell?

I commented previously on London and Australia-listed, Philippines-focused gold producer Medusa Mining (MML) earlier this month. Earlier this week the shares suffered a bit of a setback on the company’s publication of its quarterly activity report (to end December 2012) which has spooked some investors into selling. On balance that is, in my view, a mistake.

20 hours ago | By ShareProphets |

The April edition of the UK Investor Magazine is live - UK Investor Show edition

The April edition of the UK Investor Show Magazine is live featuring Metal Tiger, BMR, Harley Investments, Action Hotels and much more.

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3 days ago | By Pizza Hardman Darren Atwater |

New Bulletin Board Moron of the Week Contest - sponsored by MoneySwap

This week's contest is graciously sponsored by MoneySwap, the Filthy Forty constituent that has this week requested to be dropped from the AIM market.

7 days ago | By Malcolm Stacey |

How the Snap Election Will Affect Your Share Prices

Hello Share Pillagers. We all should have known something big was going to happen by the way shares were marked down heavily after the Easter break. On Easter Monday, when our stock market was closed, the US version was open. During that session, American shares rose by about 1%. That usually means British shares rise in tandem, but not this time.

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7 days ago | By Steve Moore |

Westminster Group – emphasises “pleased” & placing “oversubscribed”. Hmmm…

Westminster Group (WSG) “is pleased to announce a placing” (to raise a gross £1 million at 10p per share) and “the conversion of the balance of the convertible loan notes issued to Darwin Capital Ltd eliminating the facility”. The shares have though responded more than 15% lower…

7 days ago | By Steve Moore |

Distil – update on recent UK Investor Show 'Dragon's Den' selection as the shares rise again

Shares in recent UK Investor Show 'Dragon's Den' selection (at 2.15p, having also been selected last year at sub 1p), Distil (DIS) have bounced a further just over 5% on the back of a “Listing in Major UK Supermarket Chain /Tdg Update” announcement...

7 days ago | By Darren Atwater |

Video: Peter Hambro of Petropavlovsk presents at UK Investor Show 2017

In this video from the storming success that was the 2017 UK Investor Show, Peter Hambro, Chairman of Petropavlovsk (POG), is at the podium. And make sure that you keep April 21 2018 free for next year's UK Investor Show.

7 days ago | By Darren Atwater |

Video: Joe Salomon of Oilex presents at UK Investor Show 2017

In this video from the storming success that was the 2017 UK Investor Show, Joe Salomon, Managing Director of Oilex (OEX), is at the podium. And make sure that you keep April 21 2018 free for next year's UK Investor Show.

7 days ago | By Darren Atwater |

Video: Michael McNeilly, CEO of Metal Tiger, presents at UK Investor Show 2017

In this video from the storming success that was the 2017 UK Investor Show, Michael McNeilly, CEO of Metal Tiger (MTR), is at the podium. And make sure that you keep April 21 2018 free for next year's UK Investor Show.

7 days ago | By Darren Atwater |

Video: Dr Doom, David Scott, presents imminent economic collapse at UK Investor Show 2017

In this video from the storming success that was the 2017 UK Investor Show, Dr Doom, David Scott, presents imminent economic collapse. And make sure that you keep April 21 2018 free for next year's UK Investor Show.

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6 days ago | By Malcolm Stacey |

Higher Hopes for the Man from the Pru

Hello Share Troopers. I’ve long been a fan of British insurance giants. They are a chance to invest in the fast-moving financial world without too much fear of heavy fines and compensation payments for mis-selling and so on. Though, of course, there is an element of that.

7 days ago | By Steve Moore |

ASA Resource – updates on cash “unaccounted for”...

Having yesterday reported that there is strong evidence of funds “amounting to several million US dollars” being transferred to entities in China without full value being received and that “analysis reveals that there is a pressing need for cash”, ASA Resource Group (ASA) states it now “provides further information on the group's cash position”

7 days ago | By Gary Newman |

Orosur looks under-valued as gold shows continued strength

Orosur Mining (OMI) certainly isn’t amongst the more popular resource stocks on AIM and trading volumes are often verging on non-existent, but I believe that many are missing an opportunity here as they go chasing rainbows with companies that are years away from production, assuming they ever actually get to that stage!

7 days ago | By Steve Moore & Tom Winnifrith |

Veltyco - fundraise and proposed acquisitions. Hmmm...but BUY

Veltyco (VLTY) has announced a €2.55 million subscription for new shares to fund two acquisitions which it argues represent “an exciting opportunity… to grow its business by building on existing online betting brands, using its expertise in online marketing combined with award winning sportsbook technology”

7 days ago | By Steve Moore |

Lombard Risk Management – emphasises ahead of expectations, but what about sustainable cash generation?

Lombard Risk Management (LRM) has updated that it anticipates exceeding analyst consensus expectations for its year ended 31st March 2017 and “remains confident” looking ahead. What’s that though expected to be “in the region of £2.4m to £2.8m”“Adjusted EBITDA”. Hmmm…

6 days ago | By Darren Atwater |

Video: Paul Atherley, MD of Berkeley Energia, presents at UK Investor Show 2017

In this video from the storming success that was the 2017 UK Investor Show, Paul Atherley, Managing Director of Berkeley Energia (BKY), is at the podium. And make sure that you keep April 21 2018 free for next year's UK Investor Show.

6 days ago | By Darren Atwater |

Video: Richard Poulden of Wishbone Gold presents at UK Investor Show 2017

In this video from the storming success that was the 2017 UK Investor Show, Richard Poulden, CEO of Wishbone Gold (WSBN), is at the podium. And make sure that you keep April 21 2018 free for next year's UK Investor Show.

6 days ago | By Darren Atwater |

Video: Colin Bird of Xtract Resources presents at UK Investor Show 2017

In this video from the storming success that was the 2017 UK Investor Show, Colin Bird, Executive Chairman of Xtract Resources (XTR), is at the podium. And make sure that you keep April 21 2018 free for next year's UK Investor Show.

20 hours ago | By ShareProphets |

The April edition of the UK Investor Magazine is live - UK Investor Show edition

The April edition of the UK Investor Show Magazine is live featuring Metal Tiger, BMR, Harley Investments, Action Hotels and much more.

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20 hours ago | By ShareProphets |

TODAY: Patience, patience, patience and yet more patience - that is the key to making money from shares

Making money from shares is simple. Well it should be. Buy cheap. Hold. Hold. Hold. Hold, and finally sell when the shares have delivered you big gains. Where so many folks go wrong is getting impatient and not being prepared to hold, hold, hold. Let us tell you about Symphony Environmental (SYM) which we tipped at a 6.75p offer just over three years ago. It did nothing for ages....

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20 hours ago | By Darren Atwater |

2 days ago | By Tom Winnifrith |

African Potash - the legal case for victims of the fraud almost underway

Before I call it a day I want to see the victims of the African Potash (AFPO) fraud get some of their money back, even if some of those victims were fairly beastly to me as I exposed the fraud. Friday's bombshell from Potash shows the game is up but the big frauds happened before this worthless enterprise was booted off AIM. To that end I have been working to help put together a legal action. That action is now almost underway and Peter Petyt, the man running things, wrote to more than 50 victims who have come forward at the weekend. If you lost money and want to try to get it back it is not too late to contact Peter. His letter & contact details follow.

2 days ago | By Darren Atwater |

Video: Paul Scott finds Nigel Wray's and Paul Mumford's investment strategies at UK Investor Show 2017

In this video from the storming success that was the 2017 UK Investor Show, Paul Scott finds Nigel Wray's and Paul Mumford's investment strategies. And make sure that you keep April 21 2018 free for next year's UK Investor Show.

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2 days ago | By David Scott |

You are hereby on notice as retail bubbles start to pop

Artificial political constructs never last. The EU is great for the “elites” in Brussels; not so much for the average citizen and the tragedy of monetary union is that Europe's political class has gone to extreme lengths to hold the euro together regardless of underlying economic logic. But this has only perpetuated and exacerbated the coming political crisis. "Monetary union has created a conflict between a centralised elite on the one hand, and the forces of democracy at the national level on the other. This is extraordinarily dangerous,” Mervyn King wrote in his recent book 'The End of Alchemy'. 

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24 hours ago | By Tom Winnifrith |

Hell's Teeth, does Peterhouse do any due diligence at all - meet the carbon spiv hooking up with African Potash?

As I flagged up over the weekend, in a desperate attempt to keep the fraud from becoming insolvent, African Potash (AFPO) has proposed a RTO of a company called Onshore Energy Limited, OEL. Lyin' Chris Cleverley Potash's boss is also a director and shareholder on OEL. But it gets worse. Much worse.

2 days ago | By Steve Moore |

WANdisco – record contract win & Q1 update offer some further encouragement, but…

I previously wrote on WANdisco (WAND) in January – ‘one quarter does not an investment make, but offers some encouragement for shareholders’. The following updates with the shares currently on the rise on the back of a “Significant customer win and Q1 update” announcement…

24 hours ago | By Tom Winnifrith & Steve Moore |

Stanley Gibbons – sells rare Indian stamps for record £500,000

Stanley Gibbons (SGI) has announced it “has sold one of the rarest pieces of Indian Philately to a private collector-investor in Australia for £500,000, the highest price ever paid for a single Indian philatelic item”.

20 hours ago | By Nigel Somerville, the Deputy Sheriff of AIM |

Filthy Forty Taihua – shares fall after GM approves delisting, but massive sudden surge today

ShareProphets AIM-China Filthy Forty play Taihua (TAIH) announced last Friday that the EGM called to approve the company’s proposed delisting from the AIM Casino had passed the proposals with the requisite majority. The shares are expected to depart the world’s most successful (but perhaps not for Taihua) growth market first thing on 8 May. In the wake of the announcement – at 4.15pm last Friday, bordering on no-one-is-watching o’clock - the shares again nose-dived, registering a new low of 0.1p on the bid yesterday, but all of a sudden the stock is on the rampage this morning. What is going on?

21 hours ago | By Nigel Somerville, the Deputy Sheriff of AIM |

Advanced Oncotherapy – more spoofery as NED buys yet more shares

AIM-listed Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO) – teetering on the brink of having to call an EGM to reduce its nominal share capital under the terms of its death-spiral funding package with Bracknor – has announced yet another director share purchase, the fourth just this month (if we ignore the botched 7am RNS of 4 April). As ever, this is just a spoof in order to encourage more buying in the market so as to allow Bracknor to offload more of its death-spiral conversion shares as Advanced hopes and prays for the next £1.235 million tranche of funding before the coffers run dry.

20 hours ago | By Tom Winnifrith |

African Potash –PKF Littlejohn LLP hang your head in shame

On 12 April 2017, the fraud that is African Potash (AFPO) announced a change of auditors from RSM UK Audit LLP to PKF Littlejohn LLP. One can understand why RSM UK Audit LLP might be keen to cease its relationship with a company with the frankly appalling track record of African Potash but how desperate does PKF Littlejohn LLP look in taking on African Potash as an audit client?

24 hours ago | By Pizza Hardman Darren Atwater |

Silver Reaching a Major Inflection Point – Investors Beware!

The COT report reveals the large paper short and long positions in silver. Currently it appears to be indicating a small downtrend in the silver market. In this week's Palisade podcast David Morgan discusses how silver markets move and how they can be pushed to the downside once investors run low on cash, as banks will short the market at opportune moments.

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2 days ago | By Steve Moore |

Goals Soccer Centres – admits preliminary merger discussions, but a golden opportunity?

Goals Soccer Centres (GOAL) has admitted “preliminary discussions with key rival Powerleague on “combining the two businesses”, though emphasises that is “but one of the strategic opportunities currently being assessed by the Goals board”

21 hours ago | By Steve Moore |

Blancco Technology – “Q3 Trading Update, Cash Flow Review and Funding”. Uh oh…

An announcement from Blancco Technology Group (BLTG) entitled “Q3 Trading Update, Cash Flow Review and Funding”. Hmmm, I’d guess it ain’t gonna be positive…

2 days ago | By Darren Atwater |

Winner of the Bulletin Board moron of the Week, sponsored by MoneySwap

Truly, there are no winners from the pool of Bulletin Board morons, only those who succeed in making our eyes roll the furthest.