Shares in EMIS Group (EMIS), a leading UK supplier of clinical software and related services to GP practices and other healthcare practitioners and a major software supplier to high street pharmacies, commenced 2013 at more than 900p but fell more than 16.5% (to 750p) on 24th January as the company reported “lower than planned revenues from the Australian defence contract, training and integrated care services. Group adjusted operating profit is expected to be marginally below analysts’ expectations, largely as a result of the accelerated staff and recruitment costs associated with the EMIS Web roll out and the slight revenue shortfalls highlighted above”. The shares have further declined since to trade at a current 650p, capitalising this AIM-listed company at £380.5 million. The following analyses whether this current, lower level represents value…
Phoenix IT Group (PNX), a fully-listed IT services company to UK enterprises, updated last week (13th February 2013) that it “currently believes the Group’s EBITDA for the year to 31 March 2013 will be around 10% below market expectations, but is encouraged by an improving order book and pipeline”. Having traded at more than 230p in 2012 and commenced 2013 at 184p, the shares presently trade at 157p, capitalising the company at £118.3 million. In light of the ‘improving order book and pipeline’, the following reviews whether there is value on offer here…
The share price of RBS (RBS) has headed due south since my bearish comments on the company last month. Reviewing the share in terms of its future dividend paying capacity in the light of recent history, I observed that in the different world and circumstance of 2007 ( when bank capital adequacy was seemingly almost inconsequential and some banks were running on low or dubious capital or both ) RBS had distributed only 30% of its earnings as dividends. That implied on a totally theoretical, best expectation 30% dividend payout from 36p of earnings per share, a dividend of 11..9p; translating into by way of academic exercise, into an annual yield of a mere 3.3%.
There are two things about energy supplier SSE Plc (it was until recently known as Scottish and Southern Electricity - which used to prompt thoughts of hairy highlanders incongruously tossing cables at a vicarage lawn tea party presided over by Miss Marples) which makes its shares a good dividend income play. But also, a share with some potential for long term capital appreciation relative to the FTSE 100 Index.
A report lands on my desk today from Edison Research on AIM Listed Gulfsands Petroleum (GPX) entitled “The road out of Damascus.” This report was commissioned by Gulfsands ( i.e. paid for) and so one would not expect a bearish conclusion. ‘tis always the way with research reports from commissioned firms ( like Edison or Hardman) or from a house broker - they want to say buy but sometimes just cannot do so. And so you get what is known as a “corporate hold” . i.e. sell. There is no recommendation on the report but with the shares at 111.75p it sets a risked valuation of the stock at 119p. I cannot see why anyone would buy a share for just 6% upside. Any sane investor would sell and switch into a stock with more upside.
Entertainment One (ETO), the London main market listed producer and distributor of film and television content, has updated that “full year earnings are anticipated to be in line with management’s expectations” on underlying revenue up 11% in the 10 month period to end January. The shares have risen from a 13.5p low hit in the depths of the markets 2009 despair to a current 188p. They did however trade above 200p in late 2011/early 2012 and, with a present market cap in excess of £500 million, the following offers my current take here…
A raft of announcements have been made by Sirius Minerals (SXX) today but amid the verbage the clear drift is not positive. The shares are off – at 25.25p – but the company is still valued at £339 million. That simply cannot be justified.I did suggest that holders at least top slice on January 31st at 27.75p as bulletin board frothed with excitement on news that the company had submitted a planning application for its Potash mine on the North York Moors – you can read that piece HERE
Bear raiders Lucian Miers and Evil Knievil are meeting for lunch today. I know, as I was invited but my liver is not up to it. However the main course should be humble pie. The bears predicted that Avanti would miss its targets at the interim stage. Moreover the results demonstrate very clearly that it is already more than two thirds of the way to hitting 2014 (not a misprint) numbers and that it continues to win business. The shares are a buy at 265p and could move sharply as the bears are squeezed. I sense that margin calls could well be served up at Evil towers today in time for pudding.
Telecom Plus (TEP), which trades as the Utility Warehouse and supplies a range of utility services (gas, electricity, fixed line telephony, mobile telephony and broadband internet) to both residential and business customers in the UK, has updated that a “continuing strong performance” means it remains “confident of reporting full year profits in line with current consensus market expectations”. The shares trade at 980p on the back of the announcement and are up from sub 300p on a three year view and from sub 650p on a one year view. With a market cap now of approaching £700 million, the following reviews whether there looks to remain value in the shares…
Shares in big data provider WANdisco (WAND) have raced ahead by 62.5p today on the back of a new product launch. For those who followed my advice to have a nibble at 493p on January 6th the reward is pretty clear. That WANdisco is making progress is without doubt but are we all getting a bit ahead of ourselves?
AIM listed GMA Resources (GMA) has just returned from an eight month suspension. A cash shell (with not a lot of cash) following the failure of its last hydrocarbon business venture it has now announced a RTO which will see it owning 90% of two mining assets in Kazakhstan. The shares returned from suspension on February 5th and promptly soared to 0.9p which in effect valued the business at £700 million. That forced the company to issue a statement re-explaining its share structure – in effect saying its stock was overvalued. The shares still trade at 0.24p but are still at least 60% overvalued.
Following from my piece on AIM-listed GB Group yesterday, I today comment on a fellow AIM-listed tech stock which also updated on trading towards the end of last month; Craneware plc (CRW). Despite its name and its being incorporated and headquartered in Scotland (Edinburgh), the company is actually a software provider focused on the US healthcare market. With offices in Atlanta, Arizona, Massachusetts and Tennessee, its software helps hospitals and other healthcare providers more effectively price, charge, code and retain revenue for patient care services and supplies – increasing their efficiency and minimising compliance risk. The following reviews the company’s recent trading update and investment outlook…
Russian Oil producer Ruspetro (RPO) has served up another shocking statement this morning – its habit of delivering nasty surprises does not change. Having advised a short at 83.5p on January 4th I suggested on 25th of January that having refinanced its debt it was “merely one to avoid.” The shock today is that it has decided not to refinance its debt or to undertake the partial debt for equity swap announced on January 25th. This leaves its cash position looking very tricky indeed and at 50.5p the shares are once again a sell.
Shares in AIM-listed GB Group (GBG) have been strong performers over recent years – commencing 2010 trading at 21p, they currently trade at 94.25p – capitalising the company at more than £100 million. Following a trading update last week, does value remain here?
Imagination Technologies (IMG) is clearly a good company. It is profitable, it is growing its sales rapidly, there is operational gearing and it generates cash and has a net cash position. It ticks all the boxes and is thus loved by investors retail and institutional. But at 523p the company is capitalised at £1.37 billion and on the basis of what is known that share price looks overheated. The shares are a sell.
After many years of scratching around Southern Africa for a project with real prospects AIM listed Boabab (BAO) appears to have found something that could be a winner in the form of the Tete pig iron/vanadium/titanium target in Mozambique. With iron ore stocks all rallying sharply in the past two or three months on the back of hopes of resurgence in Chinese demand, Baobab shares have raced ahead to 35.75p which values this company at £106 million. This is a stock that has now got far ahead of its fundamental value and I can reveal that last week well known bear raider Lucian Miers opened up a short. That is a good call which you should follow.
Earlier this month I advocated a purchase of National Grid (NG.) for dividend yield. This week the company published its interim management statement for the period 1 October 2012 to 28 January 2013. It seems that my reading of the runes were pretty much correct. Regulatory management is shown to be going according to plan and shows no obvious signs of not moving into an expected new dance like embrace of mutual understanding and agreement between the regulator and company for the years following 2013.
I commented previously on London and Australia-listed, Philippines-focused gold producer Medusa Mining (MML) earlier this month. Earlier this week the shares suffered a bit of a setback on the company’s publication of its quarterly activity report (to end December 2012) which has spooked some investors into selling. On balance that is, in my view, a mistake.
AIM-listed Sirius Minerals (SXX) has announced it has delivered application documents for the onshore mining and mine access infrastructure for its York potash project to the North York Moors National Park Authority. This news on what is a potentially significant development in the UK has helped shares in Sirius – which commenced 2010 at sub 5p and 2011 at sub 14p – slightly higher to a current 27.75p, capitalising the company at £373 million. The following reviews today’s announcement from the company and the investment proposition here…
AIM-listed, Russia producing miner Highland Gold (HGM) has published a calendar 2012 trading update which reads very well. There was an 18% increase in group wide production to a record 216,885 ounces of gold and gold equivalents, exceeding guidance estimates of 200,000-215,000 ounces. The shares have ticked up to 114.5p on the news capitalising the company at £372.5 million. I wrote positively on them, at 91p, shortly before Christmas so I am already partially vindicated. But this re-rating has a lot further to go.
The March edition of the UK Investor Show Magazine is live featuring 7 share tips, company profiles, interview with Richard Poulden of PCGE, why we fight fraud & fake news on Channel 4, Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen, a look at the banksters and much more.
Well this is a company that will sponsor any old crap and let's face it, 95% of Bulletin Board Morons post on the LSE Asylum. As the countdown to the fraud Cloudtag (CTAG) being booted off AIM next week accelerates you kind of sense which stock will be the focus of most entries. The competition rules are simple. Just nominate the daftest post on a BB or on twitter in the comments section below. Once again, our in-house semi-trained loon Wildes is allowed to nominate his own posts. The deadline for entries is midnight on Sunday 26th March. Post away!
David Buik is one of those City grandees you are not allowed to criticise. It is like having a go at the late Queen Mum or beating baby seals to death. In that vein he sent out a wteet today which is wrong but I am not sure why exactly.
I comment on the hopeless response of smug MPs and the established media to yesterday's terror attack on my own website in a podcast HERE. On the markets I look at expectations management at Next (NXT), at how we know or knew about the balance sheet at Toople (TOOP) covered HERE by Cynical Bear or Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO) heading for 0p and covered in detail by me earlier HERE. I look at Public Services Properties (PSPI ) and what its AIM casino departure says about RTOs and contingent liabilities - which reminds me again of New World Oil & Gas (NEW). Finally I have a detailed look at the strange world of Paternoster Resources (PRS), not a stock you have to own in any way. PS Cynical Bear is not me. Can you see any typos in his articles?
The Mrs (on maternity leave) is off galavanting somewhere. Eight days ahead of UK Investor, the busiest time of the year, I am babysitting. I am such a god damn frigging feminist. Anyhow I record this in terror lest Joshua wakes up. In today's podcast I explain why you cannot finesse a trade on a fundamental play and discuss Minoan (MIN) and Wishbone (WSBN) in that vein. I look at Digital Barriers (DGB) the latest triumph from Cloudtag (CTAG) moron in chief Liam Nichols. I discuss Tethys (RPL) which like Cloudtag is soon to leave the AIM Casino, Nyota (NYO) and London Capital (LCG).
When running Broken Hill Resources (BHR) into the ground Murray D'Almeida threatened shareholders to vote for a crap deal at a GM or face wipe-out. Despite the infamous hairdresser sham placing, shareholders voted against Murray and his colleagues on the "screw you - we hate you so much" principle. Now with D'Almeida pulling strings at Management Resource Solutions (MRS) as a consultant - to avoid GM eviction shame see HERE - the same threat is being used.
If no Nomad is prepared to act for the FRAUD Cloudtag (CTAG) then its shares, now suspended, will be booted off the AIM Casino. No AIM = no death spiral funding so it will - very soon - run out of, other people's cash, and will go bust. But the first step is being booted off AIM. And, inspired by liar Amit Ben Haim, we have a useful countdown clock until that ouzo moment. Enjoy.
You might hate bear raiders. You might think that short selling is unethical. But what you cannot argue with is that ignoring men such as Evil Knievil when they sniff out a fraud or accounting malpractice will cost you a packet. At last year's UK Investor Show the Country's top bears did a detailed presention on AIM darling Avanti Communications, one of the AIM companies most beloved by professional fund managers. Since that warning Avanti shares have collapsed by more than 90%. This year the bears have new targets.
Hello Sharemates. As predicted on this glorious website some time ago, the share price of IQE (IQE) would fall on reporting day - and then recover. In the event when the figures were revealed on Tuesday, the shares fell by about 12%. This was not logical, as the results were rather perky, as I outlined at the time.
The fellow or lady from the Costa del Crime is yet to tweet but he (or she) has a cracking portfolio as you can see on his/her profile, headed up by the fraud Cloudatag (CTAG). In light of that I wonder if you would care to suggest a first tweet as our caption contest with a twist. Submit your entries in the comments section below. The deadline is midnight tonight, 23rd March
Writing last month on Flowgroup (FLOW) I noted the shares down below 6p, having been 25p+ less than a year ago. Having fallen further, to sub 4p, they have currently recovered to 5p following a couple of recent announcements…
The demise of Gametech PLC the next venture of Jason Drummond after the Teather's (TEA) debacle looks clear - so much for a stockmarket float care of London's worst Nomad Roland "Fatty" Cornish. We revealed the Gametech was heading for tits up town HERE last week. Now Mr Drummond's apparent arch enemy Richard Skelhorn has bitten back with an official statement relating to that article:
Shares in surveillance technology company Digital Barriers (DGB) are currently more than 17.5% lower, at 25.5p, on the back of a “Trading Update” announcement. Trading warning ahoy! You were warned…
With funds replenished by the recent placing the new management team at ECR Minerals (ECR) is - as predicted - not hanging around. The shares are well up on our share tip at a 1.7p offer, at 1.9p-2.05p. If you can get stock at 1.9p you should do so - our target to sell remains 2.5p+ and we expect to be there soon. The newsflow is only just starting.
Specialist electronic equipment manufacturer and components distributor Solid State (SOLI) has made a “Trading Update” announcement – and the following reviews with the shares currently more than 10% lower, at around 450p, in response…
Shore cap is House broker to Amryt Pharma (AMYT) so everything it writes cannot be said to be any way shape or form impartial. And since we own a shed load of the shares we are biased as hell too. Having said that this note is detailed and lifting the target price from 35p to 88p in light of recent news is pretty dramatic given that the shares were 18.5p on Friday when this "most excellent" research note came out.
I have just noted that my old pal "thirsty" David Bick is doing the PR for hedge fund Crown Ocean in its battle to oust the shamed, discredited and unwanted board and management at Bowleven (BLVN). If you are in a scrap with utter scumbags having Bick on your side is no bad thing as he is the king of this form of trench warfare, gutter warfare. Team Crown issued a statement on Friday which is damning. You will remember that the management of Bowleven is still in place despite shareholders voting most of the bastards off the board and now they are trying to flog the company. Crown - quite correctly - smells a monstrous rat. It states:
Together Robert Sutherland Smith and Tom Winnifrith have now been working in finance for 71 years - the last ten or so together. Tom wishes to stress that RSS accounts for most of that, the great value investor starting his City career at the Unilever Pension Fund the year before Tom was born. In this book they outline 71 tricks of the trade for making money from shares.
Get the first ShareProphets Pocket Guide ebook, EIS - Buying shares with numerous tax breaks. Want to cut your income tax bill, get loss relief if your AIM listed shares go down, pay no CGT, avoid IHT - EIS could be the way and this book explains how.
Most investment books seem to be large enough to keep the front door open and while some contain gems it is hard to find them amid the verbiage. The aim here is to produce a short guide which simply cuts to the chase. I hope that it will provide food for thought for everyone from beginner to expert but whoever you are it should be quick and easy to read and digest.
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